Will AI replace Purchasing managers and directors?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 72 official task statements scored for Purchasing managers and directors (United Kingdom, SOC 1134), 55% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 58 out of 100 (range 52–65, band: partial). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Purchasing managers and directors” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Prepare cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project” (93/100, very high); “Analyse data and produce reports and statistics on spending and saving” (93/100, very high); “Forecast levels of demand for services and products” (93/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Purchasing managers and directors” stay human?

About 25% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Participate in trade conferences for networking and learning” (0/100, minimal); “Train and supervise staff to ensure effective job performance” (9/100, minimal); “Train junior members of staff to enhance their skills and performance” (13/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Purchasing managers and directors” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 55% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 25% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Purchasing managers and directors calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 72 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Purchasing managers and directors

developing cost estimates and analysing quotes from subcontractors and suppliers, reviewing existing contracts to assess value for money and using MRP, ERP and procurement databases to improve performance and control expenditure. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

This job is splitting in two: preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project is work AI now does quickly and cheaply, and managing and motivating a team of procurement staff is work it can't touch.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 55%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 25%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 58 out of 100 (52–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, across 72 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for purchasing managers and directors is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Which half fills your week decides your exposure. The ledger below shows which rows you can move toward.

Your week, as this page understands it

Purchasing managers and directors (not retail) plan, organise, direct and co-ordinate the purchasing functions of industrial, commercial, government organisations and public agencies to ensure cost-effectiveness. The job title says “purchasing managers” or “directors”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: managing and motivating a team of procurement staff. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But purchasing managers and directors is not one task. It is 72 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is managing and motivating a team of procurement staff, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 55%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 25%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

27 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

39 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Developing cost estimates and analysing quotes from subcontractors and suppliers
This is reading one thing and writing another: cost estimates in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 95 · 1134/01
Source: “Develop cost estimates and analyse quotes from subcontractors and suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Building cost estimates and comparing quotes is structured number work that software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project
This is reading one thing and writing another: cost in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Prepare cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Regular cost statements come straight out of the accounting data, which software produces reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collecting historical cost data to estimate costs for current or future products
This is reading one thing and writing another: historical cost data in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Collect historical cost data to estimate costs for current or future products.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Gathering past cost data and applying it to new work is straightforward analysis of existing records.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Evaluating materials and costs in accordance with project budgets
This is reading one thing and writing another: materials in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Evaluate materials and costs in accordance with project budgets.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Checking materials and costs against a budget is arithmetic and comparison against records.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

14 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Preparing estimates for time, cost, materials and labour from blueprints and documentation
The software now makes the first pass at estimates, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 95 · 1134/01
Source: “Prepare estimates for time, cost, materials, and labour from blueprints and documentation.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Pulling quantities and costs out of drawings and documents still needs an experienced eye on the detail.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing and recommending a tailored procurement strategy for clients
The software now makes the first pass at a tailored procurement strategy, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Develop and recommend a tailored procurement strategy for clients.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 57 out of 100 (50–64 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: A tailored procurement strategy can be drafted from standard frameworks, though each client real constraints shape it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Coordinating with suppliers on procurement matters to ensure efficient supply chain operations
The software now makes the first pass at suppliers, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Coordinate with suppliers on procurement matters to ensure efficient supply chain operations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 53 out of 100 (46–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Routine supplier dealings can be handled digitally, but the relationship still shapes what you get.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

19 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Agreeing contracts with suppliers for procurement activities
The value here is that a specific person handles contracts and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 95 · 1134/02
Source: “Agree contracts with suppliers for procurement activities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Agreeing terms involves negotiation and someone accountable signing, even if drafts come easily.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Negotiating contracts with customers and suppliers to secure favourable terms
The value here is that a specific person handles contracts and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Negotiate contracts with customers and suppliers to secure favourable terms.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (17–25 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Contract terms are won across a table, and the outcome turns on the relationship with the other side.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Managing and motivating a team of procurement staff
The value here is that a specific person handles a team of procurement staff and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Manage and motivate a team of procurement staff.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (9–17 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Motivating and managing a team depends on relationships built with real people over time.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 62 tasks

Analysing data and producing reports and statistics on spending and saving
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: data in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Analyse data and produce reports and statistics on spending and saving.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Analysing spending data and producing reports is standard number crunching that software already does.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Forecasting levels of demand for services and products
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: levels of demand in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Forecast levels of demand for services and products.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Forecasting demand from past sales is a task computers already do better than most people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing and processing requisitions and purchasing orders for supplies and equipment
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: requisitions in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Prepare and process requisitions and purchase orders for supplies and equipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Requisitions and purchase orders follow fixed formats and system data, so software processes them at least as well as usual.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining records of goods purchased for procurement
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: records of goods in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Maintain records of goods purchased for procurement.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping records of what has been bought is routine data entry purchasing systems already do.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Submitting tender documents
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: tender documents in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Submit tender documents.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (86–100 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tender submissions are assembled from documents already prepared and follow strict formats, so software handles the process reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining procurement contract files for future reference
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: procurement contract files in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Maintain procurement contract files for future reference.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Filing and organising contracts so they can be found later is routine document management.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing reports on market conditions and merchandise costs
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: reports in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Prepare reports on market conditions and merchandise costs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reports on market conditions and costs are exactly the kind of research-and-summarise work software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Forecasting price trends and their impact on future activities
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: price trends in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Forecast price trends and their impact on future activities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Forecasting price movements from market and historical data suits statistical and AI tools well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Identifying vendors or suppliers to maintain inventory
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: vendors in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Identify vendors or suppliers to maintain inventory.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Finding candidate suppliers is straightforward searching, though vetting the shortlist takes real checking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Monitoring market conditions and product innovations
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: market conditions in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Monitor market conditions and product innovations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Watching market trends and new products is reading and comparison work AI does quickly across many sources.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Identifying emerging technologies to enhance procurement and supplying chain capabilities
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: technologies in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Identify emerging technologies to enhance procurement and supply chain capabilities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Scanning for useful new technology is research across published material, which AI does quickly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Keeping up to date with industry developments and marketing trends
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: to date in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Keep up to date with industry developments and market trends.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping up with industry news is reading and summarising, which software does quickly and well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Soliciting bid proposals from suppliers
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: bid proposals in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Solicit bid proposals from suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 79 out of 100 (75–83 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Requests for bids follow a standard format from specifications already written, so software prepares and issues them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Setting up cost monitoring systems
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: cost monitoring systems in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Set up cost monitoring systems.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Setting up cost tracking is configuring reports and rules, well within what software does.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing material and labour requirements to decide whether it is more cost-effective to produce or purchase components
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: material in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/01
Source: “Review material and labour requirements to decide whether it is more cost-effective to produce or purchase components.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Comparing the cost of making something versus buying it is a clear calculation from available figures.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Filling in project documentation at the relevant stages of the survey project
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: project documentation in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 1134/01
Source: “Fill in project documentation at the relevant stages of the survey project.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Completing project documentation at each stage is structured writing software drafts reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conducting research to source the best products and suppliers in terms of best value
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: research in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Conduct research to source the best products and suppliers in terms of best value, delivery schedules and quality.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Researching suppliers and comparing value, quality and delivery is the kind of search and comparison AI does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Implementing procurement and contract management procedures
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: procurement in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Implement procurement and contract management procedures.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Procurement procedures are documented and repeatable, so software can carry much of the process from the organisation's own data.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Administering online purchasing systems
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: online purchasing systems in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Administer online purchasing systems.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Running an online purchasing system is computer administration software handles efficiently.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Determining project material or equipment needs to ensure project success
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: project material in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Determine project material or equipment needs to ensure project success.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out what materials and kit a project needs follows from the plans and past jobs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing existing contracts to assess value for money
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: contracts in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Review existing contracts to assess value for money.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading contracts and testing them against current prices is document work AI handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Using MRP, ERP and procurement databases to improve performance and control expenditure
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: mrp, ERP and procurement databases in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Use MRP, ERP, and procurement databases to improve performance and control expenditure.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working inside purchasing systems to control spending is data work software is built for.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Analysing market and delivery systems to assess material availability
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: market in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Analyse market and delivery systems to assess material availability.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Analysing markets and delivery routes for availability is research and data work with plenty of published sources.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing the organisation's budget considering procurement and supplying chain requirements
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: the organisation's budget considering procurement in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Develop the organisation's budget considering procurement and supply chain requirements.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Budgets are built from documented spend and supplier data, so software produces a solid draft for the director to adjust.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing purchase order claims and contracts for conformance to company policy
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: purchase order claims in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Review purchase order claims and contracts for conformance to company policy.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Purchase orders and contracts are checked against a written policy, which is exactly the sort of comparison software does reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Making recommendations on tenders
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: recommendations in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Make recommendations on tenders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 66 out of 100 (59–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Scoring tenders against published criteria is structured comparison, with a person accountable for the decision.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing bid awards requiring board approval for procurement projects
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: bid awards requiring board approval in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Prepare bid awards requiring board approval for procurement projects.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 66 out of 100 (62–70 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Bid award papers are assembled from tender documents already on file, so software drafts them ahead of the board decision.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Coordinating with suppliers and clients for accurate project estimates
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: suppliers in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Coordinate with suppliers and clients for accurate project estimates.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Chasing suppliers and clients for the numbers is mostly email and admin that can be automated.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing estimates to meet specific customer needs
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: estimates in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 1134/01
Source: “Prepare estimates to meet specific customer needs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Building a quote from prices and requirements is calculation work that quoting software already does.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Coordinating between suppliers and manufacturers for product availability
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: suppliers in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Coordinate between suppliers and manufacturers for product availability.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Chasing availability between suppliers and manufacturers is scheduling and messaging work that automates well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing cost-effective savings plans for procurement and contract management
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: cost-effective savings plans in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Develop cost-effective savings plans for procurement and contract management.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Spend analysis and savings plans are strong ground for software once the purchasing data is available.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Identifying savings opportunities with suppliers
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: savings opportunities in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Identify savings opportunities with suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Finding savings in supplier data is analysis software does quickly across large spending files.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Liaising between internal teams and customers for order fulfilment
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: internal teams in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Liaise between internal teams and customers for order fulfilment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Passing order information between teams and customers is routine coordination that systems can handle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Setting objectives for suppliers and measuring their performance to ensure alignment with asset management goals
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: objectives in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Set objectives for suppliers and measure their performance to ensure alignment with asset management goals.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Setting targets and scoring supplier performance is a data and reporting job.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring the performance of contracted suppliers
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: the performance of contracted suppliers in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Monitor the performance of contracted suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tracking supplier performance against agreed measures is reporting from data already collected.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing competitive tendering exercises
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at competitive tendering exercises, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/01
Source: “Manage competitive tendering exercises.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tender exercises run on documented process and paperwork software handles, with supplier conversations needing the manager.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing tender processes to obtain goods and services
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at tender processes, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Manage tender processes to obtain goods and services.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Running a tender is a documented process, though the rules require a responsible person overseeing it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Organising material and equipment purchases and delivery
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at material, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Organise material and equipment purchases and delivery.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Ordering and tracking deliveries is administrative work software does well, though goods arrive physically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Presenting any legal or commercial risks to senior leadership teams
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at any legal, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Present any legal or commercial risks to senior leadership teams.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 53 out of 100 (46–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Writing up the risks is straightforward, but putting them to senior leaders needs credibility in the room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conducting special studies to develop standard hour and related cost data
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at special studies, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 1134/01
Source: “Conduct special studies to develop standard hour and related cost data.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 51 out of 100 (44–58 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out standard hours and cost data is analysis, though gathering it can mean watching the work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Reviewing, evaluating and approving specifications for issuing and awarding tenders
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at specifications, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Review, evaluate, and approve specifications for issuing and awarding tenders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 50 out of 100 (43–57 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Specifications can be reviewed against requirements by software, but awarding a tender is the director's own accountable decision.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Directing purchasing activities of materials and equipment
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at activities of materials, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Direct purchasing activities of materials and equipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Buying runs on documented processes software supports well, though directing the buyers day to day needs a manager.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring the security and sustainability of sources of essential products and services
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at the security, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Ensure the security and sustainability of sources of essential products and services.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Securing supply involves judgement about risk and relationships, though the analysis behind it can be automated.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Advising and managing the procurement of an organisation's products
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at the procurement of an organisation's products, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 1134/02
Source: “Advise and manage the procurement of an organisation's products.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Procurement analysis is easy to produce, but advising and steering buying decisions involves people and negotiation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Implementing quality management systems and methodologies to optimise procurement and achieve sustainability outcomes
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at quality management systems, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Implement quality management systems and methodologies to optimise procurement and achieve sustainability outcomes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Putting quality systems into practice depends on getting colleagues and suppliers to change how they work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Leading and creating responsible and sustainable procurement and social value initiatives throughout the procurement cycle and supplying chains
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at responsible, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Lead and create responsible and sustainable procurement and social value initiatives throughout the procurement cycle and supply chains.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Leading a sustainability push is as much about persuading the organisation as writing the policy.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Delivering presentations on market analysis and potential growth
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles presentations and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Deliver presentations on market analysis and potential growth.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 39 out of 100 (32–46 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: The analysis and slides are easy to produce, but standing up and presenting them is a person job.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Coordinating the disposal of surplus materials in an environmentally responsible manner
staying human
The ratings behind this row put the disposal of surplus materials well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Coordinate the disposal of surplus materials in an environmentally responsible manner.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Disposal routes and duty-of-care paperwork are documented, but arranging the actual removal means dealing with sites and carriers.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring procurement and supplying functions comply with internal and external governance
staying human
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for procurement, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Ensure procurement and supply functions comply with internal and external governance, regulatory requirements, and net zero carbon targets.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 37 out of 100 (30–44 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Rules and targets are written down, but someone senior has to be answerable for compliance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Implementing supply chains for cost reduction strategies
staying human
The ratings behind this row put chains well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Implement supply chains for cost reduction strategies.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 37 out of 100 (30–44 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Redesigning a supply chain on paper is easy; making it work involves suppliers, sites and physical flows.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining effective communication and collaboration with contractors and suppliers
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles effective communication and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1134/02
Source: “Maintain effective communication and collaboration with contractors and suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 32 out of 100 (25–39 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Long-running supplier relationships depend on trust built between particular people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Discussing changes and adjustments to cost estimates with engineers
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles changes and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1134/01
Source: “Discuss changes and adjustments to cost estimates with engineers, architects, owners, contractors, and subcontractors.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Talking through changes with engineers, architects and clients depends on live discussion and give-and-take.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Interviewing suppliers to learn about products
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles suppliers and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Interview suppliers to learn about products, services, and prices.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Talking to suppliers about products and prices is a live conversation, though preparation and notes can be automated.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conducting negotiations to secure favourable terms for contracts
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles negotiations and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1134/01
Source: “Conduct negotiations to secure favourable terms for contracts.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 28 out of 100 (21–35 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Negotiating contract terms depends on live give and take with the other side.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Achieving performance and sales targets by implementing effective strategies
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: performance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Achieve performance and sales targets by implementing effective strategies.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 24 out of 100 (17–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sales tactics can be suggested by software, but hitting targets happens through daily work on the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring the quality of the service to customers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the quality of the service, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Monitor the quality of the service to customers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 24 out of 100 (17–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Some service quality shows up in data, but much of it is seen by walking the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Resolving issues with sub-contractors and suppliers
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles issues and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 80 · 1134/02
Source: “Resolve issues with sub-contractors and suppliers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (17–25 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Sorting out a dispute with a supplier depends on the working relationship and a conversation, not a document.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Resolving problems and issues that arise during construction
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: problems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 1134/01
Source: “Resolve problems and issues that arise during construction.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Fixing problems on a live construction job usually means being there and working it out with people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Recording site information on access
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: site information, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 1134/01
Source: “Record site information on access, drainage, topography, and utility service availability.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Recording access, drainage and services means going to the site and looking at it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Training junior members of staff to enhance their skills and performance
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles junior members of staff and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Train junior members of staff to enhance their skills and performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Junior staff develop through a mentor who knows them and takes an interest.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Training and supervising staff to ensure effective job performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: staff, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 1134/02
Source: “Train and supervise staff to ensure effective job performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (5–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Training and supervising staff depends on a person alongside them on the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Participating in trade conferences for networking and learning
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trade conferences, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1134/02
Source: “Participate in trade conferences for networking and learning.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Going to conferences and meeting people in person is the whole point of the task.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £58,000a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 61,700in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: cost estimates in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project and developing cost estimates and analysing quotes from subcontractors and suppliers. What it cannot do is be trusted in person, which is what a team of procurement staff runs on: someone specific doing it and standing behind it. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

The exposed part of your job is the biggest part, and I am not going to dress that up: preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project is work today's tools do quickly and cheaply, and that is not coming back.

So, given all that: 55% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 20% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 25% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 72 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

What you have that the software does not is managing and motivating a team of procurement staff, plus the years of knowing when something looks wrong before you can say why. That is the raw material for everything below.

This week: one thing

Sit on the machine's side of the desk. Pick one real piece of cost estimates you would normally do yourself, let whatever software you already have take the first pass at it, and then go through what it produced and write down every single thing it got wrong. One evening this week. Do not fix anything yet. Just catch it.

What you end up holding: a written list of the machine’s mistakes, in your handwriting
How long it takes: an evening, or an hour if you pick one job rather than one client

If you can’t run software on your employer’s or your clients’ data: Do the same hunt on paper. Take one printed piece of cost estimates, work through it the way you always do, and mark every point where you made a call rather than followed a rule. Same evening, same list, nothing to log into and nobody to ask permission from. That list is the same artifact: it is the judgment written down.

Over the next 90 days

Change one sentence about what you do. Not on a CV. Out loud, to whoever pays you. From “my job is preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project” to “I check what the software does and tell you what it means.” Your error list from this week is what makes that sentence true instead of a claim, so use it: show it once, to one person, inside the next ninety days. Same skills, priced as judgment rather than as typing.

Over the next 12 months

Walk toward the end of this job that answers for things, and get it recognised. Pick the one part of managing and motivating a team of procurement staff you are already best at, and spend the year making it formal: a qualification, a named responsibility, a specialism people ask for by name. Price it honestly: that is evenings, it is months rather than weeks, and the seats are competitive because everyone in your position is looking at the same door. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to purchasing managers and directors (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was quantity surveyors: only about 20% of its durable work is work you already do. Your own job splits about 55/45: that share of the list sits in the top exposure band and the rest does not. On this evidence the honest move is inside the job rather than out of it. Become the person who owns “prepare estimates for time, cost, materials, and labour from blueprints and documentation”, and let the exposed end go.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Quantity surveyors
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “resolve problems and issues that arise during construction”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 20% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 20% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Directors in logistics, warehousing and transport
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “implement supply chains for cost reduction strategies”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 8% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 8% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Merchandisers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “agree contracts with suppliers for procurement activities”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 6% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: £32,155 against your £58,005, 44.6% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 55% of its task weight, across 72 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
“It’s too late for me to become something else”
You are not starting from zero, and the page shows why: managing and motivating a team of procurement staff is work the software cannot do and you already do it. The move above is a repricing of what you know, not a new career. Nobody who has just left college has that.
“I should learn to code”
Almost certainly not. The value in your job is moving toward checking, deciding and answering for the output, not toward writing the software. A weekend of Python will not change your position; the error list from this week will.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

If you run a team doing this job

If you run a team doing this job, the conversation you owe them is the one on this page, and sooner than feels comfortable. Show them the ledger rather than a reassurance: the rows moving toward the software are preparing cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project, and the rows that are not are where you want your people visible. Ask each of them to do the this-week move and bring the list to your next one-to-one. It turns a rumour into a piece of work, and it tells you which parts of your team's week are actually at stake. And say the thing out loud that a team lead usually leaves unsaid: a shrinking team is your exposure too, so do the move yourself as well.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

In US official statistics this job is counted as Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Two honest options, and no deadline on either

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

A nearby route

There's no Space built for purchasing managers and directors yet.

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

The closest match is Power Automate Builders, a community for non-developers building the approvals, reminders and handoffs that keep working once real people use them. It overlaps with the part of your job that is growing: the approval and request routing behind purchasing, not the negotiating or the supplier strategy. If that overlap isn't you, the free route below covers the same ground.

Try Power Automate Builders free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

After the trial it is a paid community, and you get identical data either way. If the overlap above is not your job, the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for purchasing managers and directors launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Purchasing managers and directors?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 72 official task statements scored for Purchasing managers and directors (United Kingdom, SOC 1134), 55% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 58 out of 100 (range 52–65, band: partial). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Purchasing managers and directors” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Prepare cost and expenditure statements at regular intervals for the project” (93/100, very high); “Analyse data and produce reports and statistics on spending and saving” (93/100, very high); “Forecast levels of demand for services and products” (93/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Purchasing managers and directors” stay human?: About 25% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Participate in trade conferences for networking and learning” (0/100, minimal); “Train and supervise staff to ensure effective job performance” (9/100, minimal); “Train junior members of staff to enhance their skills and performance” (13/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Purchasing managers and directors” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 55% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 25% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Purchasing managers and directors calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 72 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
27 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.