Will AI replace Rail transport operatives?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 71 official task statements scored for Rail transport operatives (United Kingdom, SOC 8234), 14% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 26 out of 100 (range 22–31, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Rail transport operatives” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Report on network performance and usage statistics” (93/100, very high); “Record details of calls, dispatches, and messages” (88/100, very high); “Arrange work with customers and initiate work orders” (79/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Rail transport operatives” stay human?

About 70% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Ride on moving wagons by holding onto grab irons and standing on ladder steps” (0/100, minimal); “Pull knuckles to open them for coupling” (0/100, minimal); “Observe and respond to wayside and cab signals, including colour light signals, position signals, torpedoes, flags, and hot box detectors” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Rail transport operatives” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 14% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 70% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Rail transport operatives calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 71 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Rail transport operatives

monitoring train movements on computer systems, reading shunting instructions and daily wagon schedules to determine work and documenting and preparing reports of accidents. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 14%
changing shape: 16%
staying human: 70%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 26 out of 100 (22–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 71 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for rail transport operatives is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is reporting on network performance and usage statistics: the paper around the work, not the work.

Your week, as this page understands it

Rail transport operatives assist drivers in the operation of passenger and goods trains, drive locomotive engines in coal mines, guide wagons and coaches in marshalling yards and sidings to make up trains, operate signals and points to control the movement of rail traffic, and monitor the operation of surface and underground railways. The job title says “rail transport operatives”. The real job is the part underneath: operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But rail transport operatives is not one task. It is 71 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 14%
changing shape: 16%
staying human: 70%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

One row is marked low confidence, so treat it as a ballpark rather than a fine measurement.
25 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

11 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Maintaining a log of activities relevant to the delivery of the train service
This is reading one thing and writing another: this work in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 8234/02
Source: “Maintain a log of activities relevant to the delivery of the train service.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 61 out of 100 (57–65 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Service logs are structured entries that control systems already capture as trains run.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Communicating any alterations to the published train service that may affect customers
This is reading one thing and writing another: any alterations in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Communicate any alterations to the published train service that may affect customers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (65–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Passenger information about altered services is generated straight from timetable changes and pushed out automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Keeping records of the contents and destination of each train carriage
This is reading one thing and writing another: records of the contents in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Keep records of the contents and destination of each train carriage.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (65–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Recording wagon contents and destinations is structured data entry already handled by freight systems.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reading shunting instructions and daily wagon schedules to determine work
This is reading one thing and writing another: instructions in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8234/03
Source: “Read shunting instructions and daily wagon schedules to determine work to be performed.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 61 out of 100 (57–65 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading shunting instructions and wagon schedules to work out the day’s jobs is straightforward planning from documents.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

11 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Reporting arrival and departure times
The software now makes the first pass at arrival, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 8234/02, 8234/03
Source: “Report arrival and departure times, train delays, work order completion, and time on duty.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reporting times, delays and completions is simple record keeping, but the facts come from being on the job.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring train movements on computer systems
The software now makes the first pass at train movements, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 95 · 8234/02
Source: “Monitor train movements on computer systems.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (35–49 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Train describers already track movements automatically, but a competent signaller has to be watching the screens.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Contacting maintenance teams to report signal problems
The software now makes the first pass at maintenance teams, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 8234/02
Source: “Contact maintenance teams to report signal problems.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 52 out of 100 (48–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reporting a signal fault to the maintenance team is a standard message that systems already raise automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

49 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing
This work happens in the physical world: derails, automatic points and retarders, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/02, 8234/03
Source: “Operate derails, automatic points, and retarders to change train or carriage routing.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating derails, points and retarders is done at the trackside controls.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Receiving instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes
This work happens in the physical world: instructions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/02, 8234/03
Source: “Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 28 out of 100 (21–35 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Dispatcher instructions are structured information, but they are received and used by crew on the train.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Using hand signals, lanterns or radio communication to signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling carriages
This work happens in the physical world: hand signals, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/02, 8234/03
Source: “Use hand signals, lanterns, or radio communication to signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling carriages.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Signalling drivers during coupling has to be done in the yard as it happens.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 61 tasks

Reporting on network performance and usage statistics
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: network performance in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Report on network performance and usage statistics.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Performance and usage reports come straight from monitoring systems.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording details of calls, dispatches and messages
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: details of calls, dispatches and messages in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Record details of calls, dispatches, and messages.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 88 out of 100 (84–92 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Logging calls, dispatches and messages is routine record-keeping that control-room systems capture automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Arranging work with customers and initiating work orders
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: work in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 60 · 8234/02
Source: “Arrange work with customers and initiate work orders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 79 out of 100 (75–83 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking work and raising job sheets is scheduling and administration software already handles.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Advising staff about traffic problems
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: staff in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Advise staff about traffic problems, such as construction areas, accidents, congestion, weather conditions, or other hazards.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 74 out of 100 (70–78 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Warning staff about roadworks, congestion, weather and hazards is exactly the sort of alerting software does automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Planning daily tasks and schedules
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: tasks in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Plan daily tasks and schedules, including route planning.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 72 out of 100 (68–76 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Planning the day and working out routes is exactly the kind of scheduling software does quickly and well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Confirming routes and destinations for freight wagons
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: routes in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Confirm routes and destinations for freight wagons.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 61 out of 100 (57–65 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Checking a wagon’s route and destination against the schedule is a simple record comparison.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planning work based on switching orders and consignment notes
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: work in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 65 · 8234/02
Source: “Plan work based on switching orders and consignment notes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 61 out of 100 (57–65 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Turning switching orders and consignment notes into a work plan is exactly what scheduling software does.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Presenting and reviewing traffic routing plans and control-point locations with superiors for approval
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at traffic routing plans, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 8234/01
Source: “Present and review traffic routing plans and control-point locations with superiors for approval.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Drafting routing plans and control-point layouts and writing them up for approval is well-supported document work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging work crews, equipment or transporting for several different work locations
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at work crews, equipment, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Arrange work crews, equipment, or transport for several different work locations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Matching crews, kit and transport to several sites is a scheduling problem that planning software solves well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Writing incident reports for safety and security documentation
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at incident reports, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Write incident reports for safety and security documentation.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (52–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Incident reports follow a set structure, so software drafts a version the writer would lightly edit.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging for necessary repairs to be carried out
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at necessary repairs, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 65 · 8234/02
Source: “Arrange for necessary repairs to be carried out.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Logging faults and calling out repairers is scheduling work software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Handovering information to colleagues at the end of a shift
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at information, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Handover information to colleagues at the end of a shift.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: The handover note can be drafted from records, but shift handovers usually happen in person on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Reporting vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences or damage to vehicles
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences or damage, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 8234/01
Source: “Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences, or damage to vehicles.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (38–46 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reporting defects, damage and incidents is form-filling from known details that software drafts reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Documenting and preparing reports of accidents
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at reports of accidents, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (38–46 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing up accidents, delays and unscheduled stops is structured reporting that software drafts well from the facts.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Dispatching workers, work crews, equipment or service vehicles using radios or telephones
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at workers, work crews, equipment or service vehicles, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 65 · 8234/02
Source: “Dispatch workers, work crews, equipment, or service vehicles using radios or telephones.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (38–46 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Sending crews and vehicles out by radio or phone is dispatch work that scheduling software already handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording types of service needed for cars
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: types of service, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8234/03
Source: “Record types of service needed for cars.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Logging what service each wagon needs is straightforward record keeping.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording numbers of cars available
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: numbers of cars available, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8234/03
Source: “Record numbers of cars available.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Recording how many wagons are available is routine data entry, easier still where systems track them automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing train movements to adhere to planned timetables
staying human
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for train movements, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance 90 · 8234/02
Source: “Manage train movements to adhere to planned timetables.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Regulating trains against a timetable is a solvable scheduling problem, but the decisions must come from a licensed signaller.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting unsafe behaviour of children to school officials
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles unsafe behaviour of children and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 60 · 8234/01
Source: “Report unsafe behaviour of children to school officials.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 34 out of 100 (27–41 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Passing on a safeguarding concern about children near the railway is a written referral that follows a standard route.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Providing training on railway regulations and new technological advancements
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles railway regulations and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Provide training on railway regulations and new technological advancements.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 34 out of 100 (27–41 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Course material is easy to prepare, but safety training lands through a trainer working with the group.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Discussing train routes, timetables and cargoes with engineers
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles train routes, timetables and cargoes and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Discuss train routes, timetables, and cargoes with engineers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 34 out of 100 (27–41 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Discussing routes, timings and loads with engineers is information exchange with a working relationship behind it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Informing drivers of diversion routes through construction sites
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: drivers of diversion routes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8234/01
Source: “Inform drivers of diversion routes through construction sites.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 28 out of 100 (21–35 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Working out and passing on a diversion is information handling, though it often means being at the site directing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing and coordinating all communications within specifically assigned territories
staying human
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for all communications within specifically assigned territories, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Manage and coordinate all communications within specifically assigned territories.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 27 out of 100 (20–34 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Keeping communications straight across a territory is coordination work software supports, though safety messages need a competent controller.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Working with stakeholders to ensure the rail network operates safely and efficiently
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles stakeholders and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 95 · 8234/02
Source: “Work with stakeholders to ensure the rail network operates safely and efficiently.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 23 out of 100 (16–30 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Keeping the network running smoothly depends on working relationships between operators, maintainers and Network Rail.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Returning the rail network to normal operation following an incident or disruption
staying human
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for the rail network, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance 85 · 8234/02
Source: “Return the rail network to normal operation following an incident or disruption including working to any service recovery and mitigating the impact to customers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 23 out of 100 (16–30 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Recovery tools can suggest a plan, but restoring service after an incident is a licensed controller’s decision.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Coordinating the removal of defective carriages from trains at stations or stops
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the removal of defective carriages, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Coordinate the removal of defective carriages from trains at stations or stops.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 22 out of 100 (15–29 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Coordinating a defect removal is planning and messaging, but the wagon still has to be detached and moved.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Verifying accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: accuracy of timekeeping instruments, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/02
Source: “Verify accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Time checks are trivial to automate, but they are done with the engineer at the train before departure.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Communicating traffic and crossing rules to pupils and adults
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: traffic, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/01
Source: “Communicate traffic and crossing rules to pupils and adults.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: The explanation can be prepared, but teaching road rules to children happens face to face at the kerb.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Learning the location and purpose of road traffic signs within assigned patrol areas
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the location, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/01
Source: “Learn the location and purpose of road traffic signs within assigned patrol areas.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sign meanings are published, but learning a particular patrol area means walking it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording wagon numbers and sealing numbers following inspections
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: wagon numbers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8234/02
Source: “Record wagon numbers and seal numbers following inspections.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 19 out of 100 (12–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Numbers can be read from a photo, but someone has to walk the train to see the wagons and seals.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing an area of control and maintaining situational awareness
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: an area of control, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/02
Source: “Manage an area of control and maintain situational awareness.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Holding an area of control safely means a licensed signaller present and alert to everything happening on it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Taking appropriate action in the event of incidents
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: appropriate action, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Take appropriate action in the event of incidents, disruptions, or emergencies, documenting actions and outcomes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: The documentation side drafts easily, but responding to a live disruption means acting on the ground as it unfolds.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conferring with conductors and other workers via radiotelephones or computers to exchange switching information
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: conductors, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/03
Source: “Confer with conductors and other workers via radiotelephones or computers to exchange switching information.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Exchanging switching information follows set wording that software handles, though a competent operative confirms the moves.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Resolving problems by speaking with customers
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles problems and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Resolve problems by speaking with customers, supervisors, contractors, or other personnel.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 17 out of 100 (10–24 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Sorting out problems by talking to customers, contractors and staff depends on live conversation and trust between people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Responding to reports of issues
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: reports of issues, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Respond to reports of issues, such as trespassing and animals on the track.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Trespass and animal reports need someone able to get to the location and act on the ground.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Monitoring equipment functioning and observing temperature
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/03
Source: “Monitor equipment functioning and observe temperature, level, and flow gauges.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sensors can report temperatures and levels, but the gauges being watched here are on equipment in front of you.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Operating controls to activate traffic signals
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: controls, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/02
Source: “Operate controls to activate traffic signals.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (2–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, low confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Signal timing can be worked out automatically, but the operator presses the controls based on what they can see.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Instructing on coupling and uncoupling carriages and routing traffic
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: coupling, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Instruct on coupling and uncoupling carriages and routing traffic.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Teaching coupling and shunting works by showing someone at the wagons how it is actually done.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Logging registration numbers of vehicles ignoring traffic signals
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: registration numbers of vehicles ignoring traffic signals, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8234/01
Source: “Log registration numbers of vehicles ignoring traffic signals.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reading number plates as vehicles pass requires someone watching the crossing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting tracks, carriages and engines for defects and to determine service needs
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: tracks, carriages and engines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8234/03
Source: “Inspect tracks, carriages, and engines for defects and to determine service needs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Checking track and rolling stock for defects means getting to the equipment and examining it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting engines, gearboxes and hydraulics for wear and damage to ensure operational safety
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: engines, gearboxes and hydraulics, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8234/03
Source: “Inspect engines, gearboxes, and hydraulics for wear and damage to ensure operational safety.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging wear in an engine or gearbox means opening it and looking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting track for defects, broken rails and switch malfunctions
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: track, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8234/03
Source: “Inspect track for defects such as broken rails and switch malfunctions.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Finding broken rails and switch faults means being on the track looking at it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Directing workers in yard activities like switching tracks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Direct workers in yard activities like switching tracks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (3–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing yard staff through track switching happens live on the ground and must be led by a certified competent person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Following procedures for train dispatch
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/02
Source: “Follow procedures for train dispatch, ensuring the safe and efficient movement of trains.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 5 out of 100 (1–9 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Dispatching trains safely happens on the platform or in the yard, and a certified competent person must give the signal.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Supervising crew activities to transport freight and passengers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: crew activities, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/02
Source: “Supervise crew activities to transport freight and passengers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Supervising crews moving trains means being where the work is, watching it happen.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Directing traffic flow
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: traffic flow, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/01
Source: “Direct traffic flow.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Directing traffic requires a person in the road.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Assisting pedestrians in safely crossing roads
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: pedestrians, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/01
Source: “Assist pedestrians in safely crossing roads, stopping traffic when needed.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stopping traffic and walking children across the road requires a person standing there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Monitoring traffic flow to locate safe gaps through which pedestrians can cross roads
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: traffic flow, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/01
Source: “Monitor traffic flow to locate safe gaps through which pedestrians can cross roads.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging a safe gap in traffic requires standing at the crossing watching it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Warning of hazards
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: hazards, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/01
Source: “Warn of hazards using signs, flags, lanterns, and hand signals.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Signalling to drivers and pedestrians is done by a person in the road.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Distributing traffic management signs and markers at designated points
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: traffic management signs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/01
Source: “Distribute traffic management signs and markers at designated points.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Putting out signs and markers means carrying and placing them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating controls in a manual signal box for railway traffic management
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: controls, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/02
Source: “Operate controls in a manual signal box for railway traffic management.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: A manual signal box is worked by pulling levers by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Directing the combining or separating of carriages to assemble or disassemble trains
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the combining or separating of carriages, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/02
Source: “Direct the combining or separating of carriages to assemble or disassemble trains.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Directing carriages being joined or split is done trackside as the moves happen.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Setting flares, flags, lanterns or torpedoes in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops to warn oncoming trains
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: flares, flags, lanterns or torpedoes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8234/02
Source: “Set flares, flags, lanterns, or torpedoes in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops to warn oncoming trains.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Placing flares and flags in front of and behind a stopped train is physical work on the track.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Applying and releasing handbrakes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: handbrakes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/03
Source: “Apply and release handbrakes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Handbrakes are wound on and released by hand at the wagon.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Operating and driving locomotives and engines in train yards and at industrial sites
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: locomotives, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8234/03
Source: “Operate and drive locomotives and engines in train yards and at industrial sites.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving a locomotive means a qualified driver physically at the controls.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Aligning drawbars using equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: drawbars, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/03
Source: “Align drawbars using equipment to lift, pull, or push them.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Aligning drawbars means physically lifting and pushing heavy couplings into place.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Driving the train between stations or freight depots
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the train, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/03
Source: “Drive the train between stations or freight depots.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving a train between stations or depots is physical work at the controls that the law reserves to a licensed driver.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 4/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Operating and controlling dinkey engines to transport and shunt wagons at industrial or mine sites
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: dinkey engines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8234/03
Source: “Operate and control dinkey engines to transport and shunt wagons at industrial or mine sites.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Operating a shunting engine means a person at the controls in the yard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Observing and responding to wayside and cab signals
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: wayside, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8234/03
Source: “Observe and respond to wayside and cab signals, including colour light signals, position signals, torpedoes, flags, and hot box detectors.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Watching for and reacting to lineside and cab signals means being aboard, seeing them as they come.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Pulling knuckles to open them for coupling
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: knuckles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/03
Source: “Pull knuckles to open them for coupling.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Pulling a knuckle open for coupling is physical work between wagons.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Riding on moving wagons by holding onto grab irons and standing on ladder steps
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: moving wagons, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8234/03
Source: “Ride on moving wagons by holding onto grab irons and standing on ladder steps.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Riding a moving wagon by holding grab irons is as physical as work gets.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £57,100a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 13,700in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: network performance in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: reporting on network performance and usage statistics and maintaining a log of activities relevant to the delivery of the train service. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where derails, automatic points and retarders get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 14% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 16% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 70% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 71 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Reporting on network performance and usage statistics is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to network performance, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether derails, automatic points and retarders are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no licence needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near reporting arrival and departure times. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to rail transport operatives (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was school midday and crossing patrol occupations: only about 12% of its durable work is work you already do and it pays 62.0% less. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 26/100 here, with only 14% of the task list in the top band, and “monitor train movements on computer systems” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

School midday and crossing patrol occupations
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “direct traffic flow”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 12% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 12% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: £21,678 against your £57,088, 62.0% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Train and tram drivers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “drive the train between stations or freight depots”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 9% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 9% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Market research interviewers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already direct traffic flow, and their equivalent is to recommend methods to improve traffic flow and safety. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. This release publishes no median pay for that job, so I cannot show you what the move costs or pays. I do not recommend a move I cannot price.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 14% of its task weight, across 71 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like operating derails, automatic points and retarders to change train or carriage routing arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Crossing Guards and Flaggers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

In US official statistics this job is counted as Crossing Guards and Flaggers, Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers, Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters and Rail Transportation Workers, All Other. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for rail transport operatives, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 14% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for rail transport operatives. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for rail transport operatives launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for rail transport operatives yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for rail transport operatives existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for rail transport operatives launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Rail transport operatives?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 71 official task statements scored for Rail transport operatives (United Kingdom, SOC 8234), 14% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 26 out of 100 (range 22–31, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Rail transport operatives” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Report on network performance and usage statistics” (93/100, very high); “Record details of calls, dispatches, and messages” (88/100, very high); “Arrange work with customers and initiate work orders” (79/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Rail transport operatives” stay human?: About 70% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Ride on moving wagons by holding onto grab irons and standing on ladder steps” (0/100, minimal); “Pull knuckles to open them for coupling” (0/100, minimal); “Observe and respond to wayside and cab signals, including colour light signals, position signals, torpedoes, flags, and hot box detectors” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Rail transport operatives” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 14% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 70% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Rail transport operatives calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 71 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
One row is marked low confidence, so treat it as a ballpark rather than a fine measurement.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
25 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.