Will AI replace Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 27 official task statements scored for Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators (United States, SOC 51-9161), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 14 out of 100 (range 12–20, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators” stay human?

About 81% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Lay out and mark areas of parts to be shot peened and fill hoppers with shot” (0/100, minimal); “Examine electronic components for defects or completeness of laser-beam trimming, using microscopes” (0/100, minimal); “Set up future jobs while machines are operating” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 81% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 27 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators

measuring dimensions of finished workpieces to ensure conformance, removing and replacing dull cutting tools and checking to ensure that workpieces are properly lubricated and cooled during machine operation. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 16%
staying human: 81%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 14 out of 100 (12–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 27 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for computer numerically controlled tool operators is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is writing simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools: the paper around the work, not the work.

Your week, as this page understands it

Operate computer-controlled tools, machines, or robots to machine or process parts, tools, or other work pieces made of metal, plastic, wood, stone, or other materials. May also set up and maintain equipment. The job title says “computer numerically controlled tool operators”. The real job is the part underneath: setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But computer numerically controlled tool operators is not one task. It is 27 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 16%
staying human: 81%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

1 task

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Writing simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools
This is reading one thing and writing another: simple programs in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Write simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing simple machine-tool programs is coding against a well-documented instruction set, which AI does capably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

4 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Calculating machine speed and feed ratios and the size and position of cuts
The software now makes the first pass at machine, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Calculate machine speed and feed ratios and the size and position of cuts.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 50 out of 100 (43–57 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Speeds and feeds follow published tables, though the right cut positions depend on the specific part and setup.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Implementing changes to machine programs
The software now makes the first pass at changes, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Implement changes to machine programs, and enter new specifications, using computers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Editing a machine program and typing in new specifications is computer work software already does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Transferring commands from servers to computer numerical control
The software now makes the first pass at commands, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Transfer commands from servers to computer numerical control (CNC) modules, using computer network links.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Sending programmes from a server to a machine over the network is ordinary computer plumbing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Modifying cutting programs to account for problems encountered during operation
The software now makes the first pass at programs, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Modify cutting programs to account for problems encountered during operation, and save modified programs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Editing a cutting program is code work AI can draft, though the fix depends on what went wrong on the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

22 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces
This work happens in the physical world: and operating computer-controlled machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Set up and operate computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Setting up and running a CNC machine on real metal is physical work at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Measuring dimensions of finished workpieces to ensure conformance
This work happens in the physical world: dimensions of finished workpieces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Measure dimensions of finished workpieces to ensure conformance to specifications, using precision measuring instruments, templates, and fixtures.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Measuring a finished part with precision gauges means holding the part and the instrument.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Mounting, installing, align and securing tools, attachments, fixtures and workpieces on machines
This work happens in the physical world: align, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Mount, install, align, and secure tools, attachments, fixtures, and workpieces on machines, using hand tools and precision measuring instruments.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mounting and aligning tooling and workpieces on a machine is precise handwork.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Stopping machines to remove finished workpieces or to change tooling
This work happens in the physical world: machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Stop machines to remove finished workpieces or to change tooling, setup, or workpiece placement, according to required machining sequences.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stopping the machine to swap parts or tooling is a physical intervention on the shop floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Listening to machines during operation to detect sounds
This work happens in the physical world: machines during operation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Listen to machines during operation to detect sounds such as those made by dull cutting tools or excessive vibration, and adjust machines to compensate for problems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Hearing a dull tool or bad vibration means standing next to the running machine and listening.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

Show the other 17 tasks

Reviewing program specifications or blueprints to determine and set machine operations and sequencing
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: program specifications, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Review program specifications or blueprints to determine and set machine operations and sequencing, finished workpiece dimensions, or numerical control sequences.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 29 out of 100 (22–36 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reading the program spec is document work AI handles, but setting the machine from it still happens at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inserting control instructions into machine control units to start operation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: control instructions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Insert control instructions into machine control units to start operation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 19 out of 100 (12–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Entering start instructions is simple computer input, but it is typed into a control unit on the shop floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inputting initial part dimensions into machine control panels
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: initial part dimensions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Input initial part dimensions into machine control panels.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 19 out of 100 (12–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Typing part dimensions into a control panel is trivial data entry, but the panel is on the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Entering commands or loading control media
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: commands, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Enter commands or load control media, such as tapes, cards, or disks, into machine controllers to retrieve programmed instructions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 19 out of 100 (12–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Loading control media to fetch stored instructions is simple computer input, but done at the machine controller.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring machine operation and controlling panel displays
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machine operation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Monitor machine operation and control panel displays, and compare readings to specifications to detect malfunctions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Comparing readings to specification is analysis, but the watching is done standing at the control panel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conferring with supervisors or programmers to resolve machine malfunctions or production errors or to obtain approval to continue production
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: supervisors, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Confer with supervisors or programmers to resolve machine malfunctions or production errors or to obtain approval to continue production.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 11 out of 100 (4–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Sorting out a machine fault with a supervisor depends on shop-floor judgement and a conversation between colleagues.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Removing and replacing dull cutting tools
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: dull cutting tools, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Remove and replace dull cutting tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Taking a blunt cutter out and putting a fresh one in is done by hand at the spindle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Adjusting machine
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machine, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Adjust machine feed and speed, change cutting tools, or adjust machine controls when automatic programming is faulty or if machines malfunction.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reaching for the controls or changing a tool when something goes wrong needs a person at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Lifting workpieces to machines manually or with hoists or cranes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: workpieces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Lift workpieces to machines manually or with hoists or cranes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting workpieces onto a machine by hand, hoist or crane is physical handling.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Checking to ensure that workpieces are properly lubricated and cooled during machine operation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ensure, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Check to ensure that workpieces are properly lubricated and cooled during machine operation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking that a cutting job is properly lubricated and cooled means watching the machine while it runs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Controlling coolant systems
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: coolant systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Control coolant systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Controlling coolant flow on a running machine is a physical adjustment at the equipment.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Maintaining machines and removing and replacing broken or worn machine tools
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain machines and remove and replace broken or worn machine tools, using hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Machine maintenance and swapping broken tools with hand tools is physical repair work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Stacking or loading finished items
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: finished items, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Stack or load finished items, or place items on conveyor systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stacking finished items or loading a conveyor is lifting and moving physical goods.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Cleaning machines, tooling or parts, using solvents or solutions and rags
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machines, tooling or parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Clean machines, tooling, or parts, using solvents or solutions and rags.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cleaning machines and parts with solvent and rags is manual work at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Setting up future jobs while machines are operating
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: future jobs while machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Set up future jobs while machines are operating.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Preparing the next job's tooling and fixtures while a machine runs is hands-on setup work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Examining electronic components for defects or completeness of laser-beam trimming
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: electronic components, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Examine electronic components for defects or completeness of laser-beam trimming, using microscopes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Examining tiny laser-trimmed components under a microscope means physically handling and viewing each one.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Laying out and marking areas of parts to be shot peened and filling hoppers with shot
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: and marking areas of parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Lay out and mark areas of parts to be shot peened and fill hoppers with shot.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Marking parts for shot peening and filling hoppers with shot is physical preparation work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $50,690a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 169,450in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: simple programs in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: writing simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools and calculating machine speed and feed ratios and the size and position of cuts. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where and operating computer-controlled machines get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 3% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 16% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 81% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 27 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Writing simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to simple programs, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether and operating computer-controlled machines are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near calculating machine speed and feed ratios and the size and position of cuts. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to computer numerically controlled tool operators (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic: only about 14% of its durable work is work you already do and there are far fewer of those jobs than of yours. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 14/100 here, with only 3% of the task list in the top band, and “set up and operate computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already lift workpieces to machines manually or with hoists or cranes, and their equivalent is to lift metal stock or workpieces manually or using hoists, and position and secure…. Across both published task lists that is about 15% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 15% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. And it is a narrow door: about 16,710 of those jobs against 169,450 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 10% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already measure dimensions of finished workpieces to ensure conformance to specifications, using precision measuring…, and their equivalent is to inspect or measure finished workpieces to determine conformance to specifications, using measuring instruments. Across both published task lists that is about 14% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 14% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already maintain machines and remove and replace broken or worn machine tools, using hand…, and their equivalent is to change worn machine accessories. Across both published task lists that is about 13% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 13% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 3% of its task weight, across 27 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like setting up and operating computer-controlled machines or robots to perform one or more machine functions on metal or plastic workpieces arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Metal machining setters and setter-operators is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Metal machining setters and setter-operators, Elementary process plant occupations n.e.c., Industrial cleaning process occupations and Metal working machine operatives. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for computer numerically controlled tool operators launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for computer numerically controlled tool operators yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for computer numerically controlled tool operators existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for computer numerically controlled tool operators launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 27 official task statements scored for Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators (United States, SOC 51-9161), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 14 out of 100 (range 12–20, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Write simple programs for computer-controlled machine tools” (75/100, high); “Transfer commands from servers to computer numerical control (CNC) modules, using computer network links” (56/100, partial); “Implement changes to machine programs, and enter new specifications, using computers” (56/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators” stay human?: About 81% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Lay out and mark areas of parts to be shot peened and fill hoppers with shot” (0/100, minimal); “Examine electronic components for defects or completeness of laser-beam trimming, using microscopes” (0/100, minimal); “Set up future jobs while machines are operating” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 81% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 27 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

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Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.