US data
First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors
maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment, participating in continuing education to stay abreast of industry trends and developments and applying customer feedback to service improvement efforts. If that's your week, this page is about your job.
The honest answer
AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: assigning truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.
That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment, stays yours. The tools change, the responsibility doesn't.
Your week, as this page understands it
BLS publishes one OEWS employment and wage estimate covering this combination of detailed occupations rather than one for each, so it is reported here as a single occupation covering four detailed occupations: First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand, First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators, First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants and First-Line Supervisors of Transportation Workers, All Other. O*NET publishes task statements for First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand, First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators and First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants; it publishes none for First-Line Supervisors of Transportation Workers, All Other, which is a statistical residual. The task statements recorded against this occupation are the union of those detailed occupations' official O*NET tasks, kept grouped by detailed occupation so the weighting stays honest. The job title says “first-line supervisors of transportation”, “material moving workers” or “except aircraft cargo handling supervisors”: officially one job, several names. The real job is the part underneath: maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment. That is the thing someone has to be right about.
The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But first-line supervisors of transportation and material moving workers, except aircraft cargo handling supervisors is not one task. It is 15 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment, and the ledger below shows exactly why.
Where the work sits, by task weight
- shifting to AI
- 22%
- changing shape
- 24%
- staying human
- 54%
These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.
Whole-job exposure score 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 15 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.
How we know this
What is measured: Every published task statement for first-line supervisors of transportation and material moving workers, except aircraft cargo handling supervisors is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.
How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.
Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.
Your job, task by task
These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.
Shifting to AI
3 tasksTasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.
Assigning truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes
This is reading one thing and writing another: truck drivers in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Assign truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 79 out of 100 (72–86 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Putting drivers on rounds is a rota and routing calculation that planning software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Requisitioning necessary supplies, equipment or services
This is reading one thing and writing another: necessary supplies, equipment or services in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Requisition necessary supplies, equipment, or services.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (86–100 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Raising requisitions for supplies and services is routine ordering admin.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Analyzing and recording personnel or operational data and writing related activity reports
This is reading one thing and writing another: personnel in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Analyze and record personnel or operational data and write related activity reports.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Pulling operational figures into an activity report is straightforward paperwork software handles quickly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Changing shape
4 tasksTasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.
Coordinating shipments of recycling materials with shipping brokers or processing companies
The software now makes the first pass at shipments of recycling materials, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Coordinate shipments of recycling materials with shipping brokers or processing companies.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 53 out of 100 (46–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Arranging shipments is routine coordination, but prices and slots are often settled by talking to brokers.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Participating in continuing education to stay abreast of industry trends and developments
The software now makes the first pass at continuing education, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Participate in continuing education to stay abreast of industry trends and developments.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (37–61 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, low confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Summaries of industry developments are easy to produce, but training and credits are earned personally.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Applying customer feedback to service improvement efforts
The software now makes the first pass at customer feedback, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Apply customer feedback to service improvement efforts.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading feedback and suggesting improvements is text analysis software does well; acting on it needs staff.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Informing workers about interests or special needs of specific groups
The software now makes the first pass at workers, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Inform workers about interests or special needs of specific groups.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Briefing staff on a group’s needs is straightforward information passing, usually written.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Staying human
8 tasksTasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.
Maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment
This work happens in the physical world: a safe working environment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Maintain a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping a workshop safe means being there watching how people actually work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Resolving customer complaints regarding worker performance or services
The value here is that a specific person handles customer complaints regarding worker performance and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Resolve customer complaints regarding worker performance or services rendered.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Complaint replies are easy to draft, but calming an unhappy customer usually takes a person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Meeting with managers or other supervisors to stay informed of changes affecting operations
The value here is that a specific person handles managers and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Meet with managers or other supervisors to stay informed of changes affecting operations.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Keeping up with operational changes happens through meetings where people talk things through.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Show the other 5 tasks
Recruiting and hiring staff members
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles staff members and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Recruit and hire staff members.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Job ads and shortlisting are easy to automate, but hiring decisions are made with people face to face.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Training workers in proper operational procedures and functions and explaining company policies
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Train workers in proper operational procedures and functions and explain company policies.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Training content and policy explanations draft well, but new staff learn the job alongside someone.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Taking disciplinary action to address performance problems
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles disciplinary action and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Take disciplinary action to address performance problems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Warning letters are easy to draft, but the conversation depends on trust with that employee.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Observing and evaluating workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: workers' appearance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Observe and evaluate workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging how staff look and perform means watching them work on the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: work areas, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas such as cleanliness or maintenance.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Walking work areas to check cleanliness and equipment condition means being there to look.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
What this job pays, and how many people do it
- Median pay
- $62,890a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
- People doing this job
- 623,640in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.
Why this is shifting
The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: truck drivers in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: assigning truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes and requisitioning necessary supplies, equipment or services. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where a safe working environment gets done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.
Your move
Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend
Your week is splitting in two, and which half fills it is the whole question. Assigning truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes is going; maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment is not.
So, given all that: 22% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 24% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 54% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 15 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.
The occupation is an average and you are not, so the first job below is finding out where your own week actually sits.
This week: one thing
Print the task ledger above and put your own hours next to each row. Roughly, in pen, in one sitting. Then look at which group your hours actually pile up in. Twenty minutes, this week.
- What you end up holding
- your own week, on one page, sorted into what is shifting and what is not
- How long it takes
- about twenty minutes
If printing it isn’t practical: Read the rows off this page and write the same list on the back of an envelope. Same twenty minutes, same page, and it works just as well said out loud to someone who knows the job. The point is your hours next to the rows, not the paper it is on.
Over the next 90 days
Volunteer toward the durable end, visibly. Over the next ninety days put your hand up for the work in the bottom group (maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment) and let people see you doing it. Not a new project: the same job, with your mix deliberately tilted. The point is that when the rota or the reorganisation comes, the version of you people picture is the one doing the part that stays.
Over the next 12 months
Claim a specialism at the durable end and let the other end go. Over a year, deliberately become the person who handles maintaining a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment, and deliberately stop being the first choice for the rows in the top group. That trade costs something, because the exposed work is often the comfortable work. Decide it on purpose rather than by drift. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.
The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them
I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.
I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to first-line supervisors of transportation and material moving workers, except aircraft cargo handling supervisors (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was first-line supervisors of personal service workers: it pays 22.7% less and there are far fewer of those jobs than of yours. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 38/100 here, with only 22% of the task list in the top band, and “maintain a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.
How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.
3 moves I checked and rejected
These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.
First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 57% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: It is a pay cut, in those words: $48,590 against your $62,890, 22.7% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 114,110 of those jobs against 623,640 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 18% as many seats.
First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 54% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: It is a pay cut, in those words: $48,560 against your $62,890, 22.8% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 103,190 of those jobs against 623,640 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 17% as many seats.
Entertainment and Recreation Managers, Except Gambling
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “resolve customer complaints regarding worker performance or services rendered”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 12% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 12% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. And it is a narrow door: about 37,980 of those jobs against 623,640 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 6% as many seats.
What I’d stop worrying about
A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.
The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 22% of its task weight, across 15 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The whole-job doom story
Nothing on this page says this job ends. It says the mix inside it moves. Half the rows above are unchanged or changing shape, and the plan is about which half your week sits in. That is a very different problem, and a solvable one.
Panic-buying a course
Do the twenty-minute sorting exercise first. Most people who buy a course before they have done it buy the wrong one, and the free services listed below will tell you the same thing without charging for it.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.
If you run a team doing this job
If you run a team doing this job, the conversation you owe them is the one on this page, and sooner than feels comfortable. Show them the ledger rather than a reassurance: the rows moving toward the software are assigning truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes, and the rows that are not are where you want your people visible. Ask each of them to do the this-week move and bring the list to your next one-to-one. It turns a rumour into a piece of work, and it tells you which parts of your team's week are actually at stake. And say the thing out loud that a team lead usually leaves unsaid: a shrinking team is your exposure too, so do the move yourself as well.
You are reading the United States figures
There is no counterpart mapped for this job in the other country, so there is nothing to switch to. That is a gap in the mapping, not a statement about the job.
Your route through this
Where to go next, and what it costs
Free, and complete
The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
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No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it
Nothing Collab365 runs is built for first-line supervisors of transportation / material moving workers / except aircraft cargo handling supervisors, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.
There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 22% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.
7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.
The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for first-line supervisors of transportation / material moving workers / except aircraft cargo handling supervisors. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.
Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for first-line supervisors of transportation / material moving workers / except aircraft cargo handling supervisors launches. Nothing else.
That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.
We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.
No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.
Questions people ask about this job
- Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors?
- Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 15 official task statements scored for First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors (United States, SOC 53-1047), 22% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 38 out of 100 (range 31–45, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
- Which tasks in “First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors” can AI already do?
- The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Requisition necessary supplies, equipment, or services” (93/100, very high); “Assign truck drivers or recycling technicians to routes” (79/100, high); “Analyze and record personnel or operational data and write related activity reports” (75/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
- Which tasks in “First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors” stay human?
- About 54% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in areas such as cleanliness or maintenance” (0/100, minimal); “Observe and evaluate workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications” (7/100, minimal); “Maintain a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment” (7/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
- What should someone working in “First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors” do about AI?
- Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 22% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 54% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
- How is the AI exposure score for First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving Workers, Except Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors calculated?
- Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 15 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.
Where these numbers come from
About the data on this page
- One row is marked low confidence, so treat it as a ballpark rather than a fine measurement.
- 73 of this occupation's 88 published task statements are not yet scored and are omitted from this release. Every exposure figure on this page is computed from the 15 that are, so treat it as a partial reading of the job rather than a complete one.
- 15 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- No cross-market counterpart is mapped for this occupation, so there is no US↔UK comparison on this page.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
- Task statements
- onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
- Task weights
- onet-db (im-rt-with-imputed)
- Scores
- Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
- Pay and employment
- bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))
Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.
The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.
The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.
Using these figures?
Cite this
Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.
Plain text
Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).
BibTeX
@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
title = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
author = {{Collab365}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
note = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.