Will AI replace Sheet Metal Workers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 19 official task statements scored for Sheet Metal Workers (United States, SOC 47-2211), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 13 out of 100 (range 11–18, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Sheet Metal Workers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications” (56/100, partial); “Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instruc…” (56/100, partial); “Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products” (50/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Sheet Metal Workers” stay human?

About 80% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Fasten roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding” (0/100, minimal); “Maneuver completed roofing units into position for installation” (0/100, minimal); “Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Sheet Metal Workers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 80% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Sheet Metal Workers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 19 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Sheet Metal Workers

inspecting individual parts, assemblies or installations, hiring, training or supervising new employees or apprentices and laying out, measure and marking dimensions and reference lines on material. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 80%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 13 out of 100 (11–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 19 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for sheet metal workers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is determining project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings or written or verbal instructions: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Fabricate, assemble, install, and repair sheet metal products and equipment, such as ducts, control boxes, drainpipes, and furnace casings. Work may involve any of the following: setting up and operating fabricating machines to cut, bend, and straighten sheet metal; shaping metal over anvils, blocks, or forms using hammer; operating soldering and welding equipment to join sheet metal parts; or inspecting, assembling, and smoothing seams and joints of burred surfaces. Includes sheet metal duct installers who install prefabricated sheet metal ducts used for heating, air conditioning, or other purposes. The job title says “sheet metal workers”. The real job is the part underneath: maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But sheet metal workers is not one task. It is 19 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 80%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

4 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Determining project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings or written or verbal instructions
The software now makes the first pass at project requirements, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instructions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out scope, sequence and materials from drawings is planning that software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Selecting gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material
The software now makes the first pass at gauges, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Matching a material gauge to a written specification is a documented lookup task.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Verifying that heating, ventilating and air conditioning, HVAC) systems are designed, installed and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards
The software now makes the first pass at heating, ventilating and air, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Checking a system against written certification standards is a documented comparison task.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Converting blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products
The software now makes the first pass at blueprints, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 50 out of 100 (43–57 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Drafting software helps turn plans into shop drawings, but a detailer still reworks much of it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

15 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications
This work happens in the physical world: equipment, making repairs or modifications, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Repairing and modifying equipment is hands-on work with tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Fastening seams or joints together with welds
This work happens in the physical world: seams, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Welding, riveting and bolting parts together is physical fabrication.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Hiring, training or supervising new employees or apprentices
This work happens in the physical world: new employees, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Hire, train, or supervise new employees or apprentices.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Job ads and training plans can be drafted, but showing an apprentice the work is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Fabricating ducts for high efficiency heating
This work happens in the physical world: ducts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Making ductwork means cutting, bending and joining metal by hand and machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Laying out, measure and marking dimensions and reference lines on material
This work happens in the physical world: out, measure and marking dimensions and reference lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Scribing and marking lines onto metal panels is done by hand on the material.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing assemblies, such as flashing, pipes, tubes, heating and air conditioning ducts, furnace casings, rain gutters or downspouts in supportive frameworks
This work happens in the physical world: assemblies, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Install assemblies, such as flashing, pipes, tubes, heating and air conditioning ducts, furnace casings, rain gutters, or downspouts in supportive frameworks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting ducts, gutters and flashing into a building is hands-on installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 9 tasks

Performing building commissioning activities by completing mechanical inspections of a building's water
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: activities, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Perform building commissioning activities by completing mechanical inspections of a building's water, lighting, or heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Commissioning checks mean walking a building and testing its systems in place.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting individual parts, assemblies or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales or micrometers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: individual parts, assemblies or installations, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging a part against tolerance needs calipers and micrometers on the actual assembly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Fabricating or altering parts at construction sites
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Fabricate or alter parts at construction sites, using shears, hammers, punches, or drills.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting and shaping parts on site uses shears, hammers and drills.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Trimming, filing, grinding, deburr, buff or smooth surfaces, seams or joints of assembled parts
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: deburr, buff or smooth surfaces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Trim, file, grind, deburr, buff, or smooth surfaces, seams, or joints of assembled parts, using hand tools or portable power tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Filing, grinding and buffing seams is hands-on finishing work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Finishing parts, using hacksaws or hand, rotary or squaring shears
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Finish parts, using hacksaws or hand, rotary, or squaring shears.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Finishing parts with saws and shears is hands-on cutting.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Shaping metal material over anvils
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: metal material over anvils, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Shape metal material over anvils, blocks, or other forms, using hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Hammering metal over a form is craft work done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Transporting prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: prefabricated parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Transport prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Moving fabricated parts to a building site is physical transport.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Maneuvering completed roofing units into position for installation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: completed roofing units, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maneuver completed roofing units into position for installation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Maneuvering heavy roofing units into place is physical lifting and positioning.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Fastening roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: roof panel edges, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Fasten roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Nailing or welding roof panel edges is physical work on the roof.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $61,800a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 119,770in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: project requirements in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: determining project requirements, such as scope. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where equipment, making repairs or modifications get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 20% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 80% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 19 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Determining project requirements, such as scope is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to project requirements, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether equipment, making repairs or modifications are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near determining project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings or written or verbal instructions. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to sheet metal workers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was helpers--roofers: only about 6% of its durable work is work you already do, it pays 28.5% less and there are far fewer of those jobs than of yours. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 13/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Helpers--Roofers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary, and their equivalent is to maintain tools and equipment. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $44,160 against your $61,800, 28.5% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 6,030 of those jobs against 119,770 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 5% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already transport prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation, and their equivalent is to assemble prefabricated parts to form subassemblies. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Model Makers, Metal and Plastic
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, and their equivalent is to lay out and mark reference points and dimensions on materials, using measuring instruments…. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. And it is a narrow door: about 2,610 of those jobs against 119,770 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 2% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 19 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like maintaining equipment, making repairs or modifications arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Sheet metal workers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

Vehicle body builders and repairers

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Sheet metal workers and Vehicle body builders and repairers. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for sheet metal workers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for sheet metal workers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for sheet metal workers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for sheet metal workers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Sheet Metal Workers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 19 official task statements scored for Sheet Metal Workers (United States, SOC 47-2211), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 13 out of 100 (range 11–18, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Sheet Metal Workers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications” (56/100, partial); “Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instruc…” (56/100, partial); “Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products” (50/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Sheet Metal Workers” stay human?: About 80% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Fasten roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding” (0/100, minimal); “Maneuver completed roofing units into position for installation” (0/100, minimal); “Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Sheet Metal Workers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 80% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Sheet Metal Workers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 19 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.