Will AI replace Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 26 official task statements scored for Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers (United States, SOC 51-6041), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 2 out of 100 (range 2–7, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers” (29/100, low); “Read prescriptions or specifications, and take measurements to establish the type of product to be made, using calipers, tape measures, or rules” (19/100, minimal); “Select materials and patterns, and trace patterns onto materials to be cut out” (13/100, minimal). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” stay human?

About 100% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Re-sew seams, and replace handles and linings of suitcases or handbags” (0/100, minimal); “Prepare inserts, heel pads, and lifts from casts of customers' feet” (0/100, minimal); “Nail heel and toe cleats onto shoes” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 100% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 26 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

preparing inserts, heel pads and lifts from casts of customers' feet, placing shoes on lasts to remove soles and heels and repairing or replacing soles, heels and other parts of footwear. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 0%
staying human: 100%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 2 out of 100 (2–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 26 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for shoe and leather workers and repairers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is the routine end of the work: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Construct, decorate, or repair leather and leather-like products, such as luggage, shoes, and saddles. May use hand tools. The job title says “shoe”, “leather workers” or “repairers”: officially one job, several names. The real job is the part underneath: constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But shoe and leather workers and repairers is not one task. It is 26 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 0%
staying human: 100%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

0 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Staying human

26 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines
This work happens in the physical world: decorate, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Construct, decorate, or repair leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines, needles and thread, leather lacing, glue, clamps, hand tools, or rivets.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building and repairing leather goods is skilled handwork with needles, glue and tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting articles for defects and removing damaged or worn parts, using hand tools
This work happens in the physical world: articles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Inspect articles for defects, and remove damaged or worn parts, using hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Finding worn parts and cutting them out means having the item in your hands.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Dyeing soak, polish, paint, stamp, stitch, stain, buff or engrave leather or other materials to obtain desired effects, decorations or shapes
This work happens in the physical world: soak, polish, paint, stamp, stitch, stain, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Dye, soak, polish, paint, stamp, stitch, stain, buff, or engrave leather or other materials to obtain desired effects, decorations, or shapes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Dyeing, stitching, buffing and stamping leather are all done by hand on the material.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Aligning and stitching or glue materials
This work happens in the physical world: glue materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Align and stitch or glue materials such as fabric, fleece, leather, or wood, to join parts.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lining up and stitching or gluing parts together is done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Repairing and reconditioning leather products
This work happens in the physical world: leather products, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Repair and recondition leather products such as trunks, luggage, shoes, saddles, belts, purses, and baseball gloves.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Repairing luggage, shoes, saddles and gloves means working on the item itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Cutting out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors or machine presses
This work happens in the physical world: parts, following patterns or outlines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine presses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting parts out with knives, shears or a press is physical work at the bench.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Drilling or punching holes and insert or attaching metal rings
This work happens in the physical world: holes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Drill or punch holes and insert or attach metal rings, handles, and fastening hardware, such as buckles.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Punching holes and fitting rings, handles and buckles is hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Cutting insert, position and securing paddings, cushioning or linings, using stitches or glue
This work happens in the physical world: insert, position and securing paddings, cushioning or linings, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Cut, insert, position, and secure paddings, cushioning, or linings, using stitches or glue.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting and fitting padding and linings into an item is done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Repairing or replacing soles, heels and other parts of footwear
This work happens in the physical world: soles, heels and other parts of footwear, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Repair or replace soles, heels, and other parts of footwear, using sewing, buffing and other shoe repair machines, materials, and equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Replacing soles and heels on shoe repair machines is hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Dressing and otherwising finish boots or shoes
This work happens in the physical world: finish boots, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Supplemental
Source: “Dress and otherwise finish boots or shoes, as by trimming the edges of new soles and heels to the shoe shape.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Trimming new soles and heels to the shape of the shoe is done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 16 tasks

Estimating the costs of requested products or services
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the costs of requested products, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 29 out of 100 (22–36 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Pricing a repair from parts and labor is straightforward calculation, though sizing up the job and taking payment happens at the counter.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Reading prescriptions or specifications
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: prescriptions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Read prescriptions or specifications, and take measurements to establish the type of product to be made, using calipers, tape measures, or rules.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 19 out of 100 (12–26 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reading a prescription is document work, but measuring a customer's foot with calipers has to happen in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Selecting materials and patterns and trace patterns onto materials to be cut out
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Select materials and patterns, and trace patterns onto materials to be cut out.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Choosing materials is partly judgment software can help with, but tracing patterns onto the hide is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Drawing patterns, using measurements, designs, plaster casts or customer specifications and positioning or outline patterns on work pieces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: patterns, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Draw patterns, using measurements, designs, plaster casts, or customer specifications, and position or outline patterns on work pieces.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Software can turn measurements into a pattern, but marking it onto the material is done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Attaching insoles to shoe lasts
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: insoles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Supplemental
Source: “Attach insoles to shoe lasts, affix shoe uppers, and apply heels and outsoles.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting uppers, insoles and outsoles onto lasts is physical shoemaking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Cementing nail or sewing soles and heels to shoes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: nail, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Cement, nail, or sew soles and heels to shoes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cementing, nailing or sewing soles and heels onto shoes is manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Shaping shoe heels with a knife
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: shoe heels, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Shape shoe heels with a knife, and sand them on a buffing wheel for smoothness.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Shaping heels with a knife and sanding them smooth is hand skill at the bench.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Making, modifying
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: orthopedic, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Make, modify, and repair orthopedic or therapeutic footwear according to doctors' prescriptions, or modify existing footwear for people with foot problems and special needs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Making and adjusting orthopedic footwear is skilled handwork on the shoe itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Placing shoes on lasts to remove soles and heels
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: shoes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Place shoes on lasts to remove soles and heels, using knives or pliers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Putting shoes on lasts and prising off old soles is physical work with tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Cleaning and polishing shoes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: shoes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Clean and polish shoes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cleaning and polishing shoes is physical work on the item itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Checking the texture, color and strength of leather to ensure that it is adequate for a particular purpose
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the texture, color and strength of leather, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Check the texture, color, and strength of leather to ensure that it is adequate for a particular purpose.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging leather quality mostly comes from feeling it, and that skill is rarely written down anywhere.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Attaching accessories or ornamentation to decorate or protecting products
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: accessories, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Attach accessories or ornamentation to decorate or protect products.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fixing decorative or protective fittings onto a product is hand assembly work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Stretching shoes, dampening parts and inserting and twisting parts, using an adjustable stretcher
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: shoes, dampening parts and inserting and twisting parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Stretch shoes, dampening parts and inserting and twisting parts, using an adjustable stretcher.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stretching a shoe with a stretcher is done by hand on the shoe.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Nailing heel and toe cleats onto shoes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: heel, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Nail heel and toe cleats onto shoes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Nailing cleats onto a shoe is a manual forge task.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Preparing inserts, heel pads and lifts from casts of customers' feet
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: inserts, heel pads and lifts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Supplemental
Source: “Prepare inserts, heel pads, and lifts from casts of customers' feet.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building insoles and lifts from foot casts is hands-on work with real moulds and materials.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Resewing seams and replacing handles and linings of suitcases or handbags
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: seams, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Re-sew seams, and replace handles and linings of suitcases or handbags.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Re-sewing seams and replacing handles is repair work done by hand on the item.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $37,800a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 7,450in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Almost none of this job is reading one thing and writing another (the shape today's tools are built for), because the work turns on decorate, which happens with people and things rather than on a screen. The rows above are the evidence rather than the reassurance: constructing decorate and inspecting articles for defects. The parts that are changing are the paperwork and the tools around the job, not the middle of it, which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 0% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 100% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 26 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. The routine end of the work is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to the routine work, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether decorate is in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to shoe and leather workers and repairers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was fabric and apparel patternmakers: only about 11% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 2/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “construct, decorate, or repair leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already select materials and patterns, and trace patterns onto materials to be cut out, and their equivalent is to trace outlines of specified patterns onto material, and cut fabric, using scissors. Across both published task lists that is about 11% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 11% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine…, and their equivalent is to cut excess thread or material from shoe parts, using scissors or knives. Across both published task lists that is about 3% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 3% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Sewers, Hand
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine…, and their equivalent is to trim excess threads or edges of parts, using scissors or knives. Across both published task lists that is about 3% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 3% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 26 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like constructing decorate or repairing leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Footwear and leather working trades is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Footwear and leather working trades. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for shoe / leather workers / repairers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for shoe / leather workers / repairers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for shoe / leather workers / repairers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for shoe / leather workers / repairers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 26 official task statements scored for Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers (United States, SOC 51-6041), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 2 out of 100 (range 2–7, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers” (29/100, low); “Read prescriptions or specifications, and take measurements to establish the type of product to be made, using calipers, tape measures, or rules” (19/100, minimal); “Select materials and patterns, and trace patterns onto materials to be cut out” (13/100, minimal). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” stay human?: About 100% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Re-sew seams, and replace handles and linings of suitcases or handbags” (0/100, minimal); “Prepare inserts, heel pads, and lifts from casts of customers' feet” (0/100, minimal); “Nail heel and toe cleats onto shoes” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 100% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 26 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.