Will AI replace Upholsterers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 22 official task statements scored for Upholsterers (United States, SOC 51-6093), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 9 out of 100 (range 7–13, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Upholsterers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Maintain records of time required to perform each job” (69/100, high); “Read work orders, and apply knowledge and experience with materials to determine types and amounts of materials required to cover workpieces” (56/100, partial); “Design upholstery cover patterns and cutting plans, based on sketches, customer descriptions, or blueprints” (43/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Upholsterers” stay human?

About 87% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Make, repair, or replace automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops, using knowledge of fabric and upholstery methods” (0/100, minimal); “Stretch webbing and fabric, using webbing stretchers” (0/100, minimal); “Adjust or replace webbing, padding, or springs, and secure them in place” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Upholsterers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 87% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Upholsterers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 22 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Upholsterers

fitting, installing, operating sewing machines or sewing upholstery by hand to seam cushions and join various sections of covering material and examining furniture frames, upholstery, springs and webbing to locate defects. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 9%
staying human: 87%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 9 out of 100 (7–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 22 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for upholsterers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is maintaining records of time required to perform each job. This page scores what today's tools actually do, not headlines.

Your week, as this page understands it

Make, repair, or replace upholstery for household furniture or transportation vehicles. The job title says “upholsterers”. The real job is the part underneath: fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But upholsterers is not one task. It is 22 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 9%
staying human: 87%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

2 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

1 task

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Maintaining records of time required to perform each job
This is reading one thing and writing another: records of time in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Maintain records of time required to perform each job.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (65–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Recording the time each job takes is straightforward record-keeping already handled by ordinary software.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

2 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Reading work orders
The software now makes the first pass at work orders, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Read work orders, and apply knowledge and experience with materials to determine types and amounts of materials required to cover workpieces.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out material types and quantities from a work order is calculation software does quickly and reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Designing upholstery cover patterns and cutting plans
The software now makes the first pass at upholstery cover patterns, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Design upholstery cover patterns and cutting plans, based on sketches, customer descriptions, or blueprints.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Pattern and cutting-plan software is well established, so a computer produces a workable layout the upholsterer adjusts.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

19 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples
This work happens in the physical world: material, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement, or staples.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting and fastening material onto a frame is hands-on craft work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Building furniture up with loose fiber stuffing
This work happens in the physical world: furniture up, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Build furniture up with loose fiber stuffing, cotton, felt, or foam padding to form smooth, rounded surfaces.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building up padding into smooth, rounded shapes is manual craft work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Making, restoring or creating custom upholstered furniture, using hand tools and knowledge of fabrics and upholstery methods
This work happens in the physical world: custom upholstered furniture, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Make, restore, or create custom upholstered furniture, using hand tools and knowledge of fabrics and upholstery methods.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Making and restoring upholstered furniture is hands-on work with tools and materials.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Attaching fasteners, grommets, buttons, buckles, ornamental trim and other accessories to covers or frames, using hand tools
This work happens in the physical world: fasteners, grommets, buttons, buckles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Attach fasteners, grommets, buttons, buckles, ornamental trim, and other accessories to covers or frames, using hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Attaching buttons, trim and fasteners is manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Adjusting or replacing webbing padding or springs and securing them in place
This work happens in the physical world: springs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Adjust or replace webbing, padding, or springs, and secure them in place.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Replacing webbing, padding and springs is physical repair work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Measuring and cutting new covering materials
This work happens in the physical world: new covering materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Measure and cut new covering materials, using patterns and measuring and cutting instruments, following sketches and design specifications.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Measuring and cutting covering material is done by hand at the bench.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Removing covering, webbing, padding or defective springs from workpieces, using hand tools, hammers and tack pullers
This work happens in the physical world: defective springs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Remove covering, webbing, padding, or defective springs from workpieces, using hand tools such as hammers and tack pullers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stripping old covering and padding with hand tools is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

Show the other 12 tasks

Discussing upholstery fabrics, colors and styles with customers and providing cost estimates
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles upholstery fabrics, colors and styles and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Discuss upholstery fabrics, colors, and styles with customers, and provide cost estimates.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Software can price a job, but customers choosing fabrics and styles usually want to see and touch samples with someone.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collaborating with interior designers to decorate rooms and coordinating furnishing fabrics
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: interior designers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Collaborate with interior designers to decorate rooms and coordinate furnishing fabrics.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Working with a designer on room fabrics involves seeing materials together and agreeing choices in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Examining furniture frames, upholstery, springs and webbing to locate defects
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: furniture frames, upholstery, springs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Examine furniture frames, upholstery, springs, and webbing to locate defects.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Finding broken springs or worn webbing means handling the furniture and feeling for faults.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Drawing cutting lines on material following patterns
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Draw cutting lines on material following patterns, templates, sketches, or blueprints, using chalk, pencils, paint, or other methods.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Marking cutting lines onto material is done by hand on the fabric.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Repairing furniture frames and refinish exposed wood
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: furniture frames, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Repair furniture frames and refinish exposed wood.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Repairing frames and refinishing exposed wood is hands-on craft work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Operating sewing machines or sewing upholstery by hand to seam cushions and join various sections of covering material
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Operate sewing machines or sew upholstery by hand to seam cushions and join various sections of covering material.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sewing cushions and joining sections is hand or machine work at the bench.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Picking up and delivering furniture
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: and delivering furniture, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Pick up and deliver furniture.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Collecting and delivering furniture means moving heavy items in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Interweaving and fastening strips of webbing to the backs and undersides of furniture
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: strips, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Interweave and fasten strips of webbing to the backs and undersides of furniture, using small hand tools and fasteners.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Weaving and fastening webbing strips is manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Sewing rips or tears in material
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: rips, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Sew rips or tears in material, or create tufting, using needles and thread.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sewing rips and creating tufting is hand work with needle and thread.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Attaching bindings or applying solutions to edges of cut material to prevent raveling
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: bindings, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Attach bindings or apply solutions to edges of cut material to prevent raveling.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Binding or sealing cut edges is manual work on the material.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Stretching webbing and fabric, using webbing stretchers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: fabric, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Stretch webbing and fabric, using webbing stretchers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stretching webbing and fabric takes physical effort with a stretcher.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Making, repairing or replacing automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: automobile upholstery, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Make, repair, or replace automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops, using knowledge of fabric and upholstery methods.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rebuilding car upholstery and vinyl tops is hands-on work in the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $46,340a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 20,140in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: records of time in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: maintaining records of time required to perform each job and reading work orders. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where material gets done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 3% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 9% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 87% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 22 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Maintaining records of time required to perform each job is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to records of time, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether furniture up is in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near reading work orders. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to upholsterers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic: only about 5% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 9/100 here, with only 3% of the task list in the top band, and “fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue…, and their equivalent is to select and install cutting tools and other accessories according to specifications, using hand…. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Cutters and Trimmers, Hand
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already draw cutting lines on material following patterns, templates, sketches, or blueprints, using chalk…, and their equivalent is to mark cutting lines around patterns or templates, or follow layout points, using squares…. Across both published task lists that is about 2% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 2% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $38,020 against your $46,340, 18.0% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Insulation Workers, Floor, Ceiling, and Wall
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already fit, install, and secure material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue…, and their equivalent is to fit, wrap, staple, or glue insulating materials to structures or surfaces, using hand…. Across both published task lists that is about 2% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 2% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 3% of its task weight, across 22 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like fitting, installing and securing material on frames, using hand tools, power tools, glue, cement or staples arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Upholsterers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Upholsterers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for upholsterers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for upholsterers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for upholsterers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for upholsterers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Upholsterers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 22 official task statements scored for Upholsterers (United States, SOC 51-6093), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 9 out of 100 (range 7–13, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Upholsterers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Maintain records of time required to perform each job” (69/100, high); “Read work orders, and apply knowledge and experience with materials to determine types and amounts of materials required to cover workpieces” (56/100, partial); “Design upholstery cover patterns and cutting plans, based on sketches, customer descriptions, or blueprints” (43/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Upholsterers” stay human?: About 87% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Make, repair, or replace automobile upholstery and convertible and vinyl tops, using knowledge of fabric and upholstery methods” (0/100, minimal); “Stretch webbing and fabric, using webbing stretchers” (0/100, minimal); “Adjust or replace webbing, padding, or springs, and secure them in place” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Upholsterers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 87% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Upholsterers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 22 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
2 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

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Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.