Will AI replace Groundsmen and greenkeepers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 38 official task statements scored for Groundsmen and greenkeepers (United Kingdom, SOC 5114), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 6 out of 100 (range 4–11, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Plan the cultivation of lawns and gardens” (75/100, high); “Evaluate performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces, including weather and soil conditions” (56/100, partial); “Agree on the specification for sports turf projects” (26/100, low). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” stay human?

About 95% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Shovel snow from paths, driveways, or car parks, and spread salt in those areas” (0/100, minimal); “Rake, mulch, and compost leaves” (0/100, minimal); “Move markers as required for different sports” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 95% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Groundsmen and greenkeepers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 38 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Groundsmen and greenkeepers

planning the cultivation of lawns and gardens, maintaining irrigation systems to ensure optimal plant health and landscape aesthetics and controlling pests that damage plants. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: edging lawns using edgers is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 2%
staying human: 95%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 6 out of 100 (4–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 38 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for groundsmen and greenkeepers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is planning the cultivation of lawns and gardens: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Groundsmen and greenkeepers cut and lay turf and maintain areas for golf courses and other sports grounds. The job title says “groundsmen” or “greenkeepers”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: edging lawns using edgers. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But groundsmen and greenkeepers is not one task. It is 38 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is edging lawns using edgers, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 3%
changing shape: 2%
staying human: 95%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

17 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

1 task

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Planning the cultivation of lawns and gardens
This is reading one thing and writing another: the cultivation of lawns in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Plan the cultivation of lawns and gardens.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Cultivation plans follow well-documented seasonal method and the site's own records.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

1 task

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Evaluating performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces
The software now makes the first pass at performance, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Evaluate performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces, including weather and soil conditions.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Weather, soil and playing-surface figures analyse well once collected, which makes this mostly desk work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

36 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Adjusting indoor and outdoor irrigation systems for efficient water
This work happens in the physical world: indoor, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Adjust indoor and outdoor irrigation systems for efficient water use.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Smart controllers can set schedules, but adjusting sprinklers and valves is done at the system.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Edging lawns using edgers
This work happens in the physical world: lawns, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Edge lawns using edgers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Edging a lawn is physical work with a machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Following landscaping designs to sow grass
This work happens in the physical world: designs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Follow landscaping designs to sow grass.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sowing grass to a design is physical work in the ground.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Mixing and spraying fertilisers, herbicides or insecticides onto vegetation using sprayers or spreaders
This work happens in the physical world: fertilisers, herbicides or insecticides, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Mix and spray fertilisers, herbicides, or insecticides onto vegetation using sprayers or spreaders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Mixing and spraying is done out on the ground with the machine, and only certificated operators may apply these products commercially.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Mowing lawns using mowers
This work happens in the physical world: lawns, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Mow lawns using mowers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mowing a lawn means pushing a mower over it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Mowing the lawn as part of grounds maintenance tasks
This work happens in the physical world: the lawn, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Mow the lawn as part of grounds maintenance tasks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mowing is done sitting on or pushing a machine across the grass.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Mulching aerate and weed established lawns
This work happens in the physical world: aerate, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Mulch, aerate, and weed established lawns.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mulching, aerating and weeding are physical garden jobs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating mowers for landscaping tasks
This work happens in the physical world: mowers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Operate mowers for landscaping tasks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating a mower is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 28 tasks

Agreeing on the specification for sports turf projects
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles the specification and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Agree on the specification for sports turf projects.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Agreeing a specification is a discussion between people who know the site and the budget.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Caring for natural turf fields by ensuring the soil composition supports proper drainage and grass growth
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: natural turf fields, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Care for natural turf fields by ensuring the soil composition supports proper drainage and grass growth.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Soil advice is well documented, but the aerating, feeding and drainage work is done on the pitch.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Identifying and controlling weeds, pests, diseases and turf disorders on the golf course playing surfaces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: weeds, pests, diseases and turf disorders, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Identify and control weeds, pests, diseases and turf disorders on the golf course playing surfaces.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 11 out of 100 (4–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Identifying a turf problem is well documented, but treating it means spraying on site under certificate rules.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring and controlling threats to turf health and applying sustainable integrated pest management practices
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: threats, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Monitor and control threats to turf health and apply sustainable integrated pest management practices.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 11 out of 100 (4–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Pest management guidance is published, though monitoring and treating happen out on the turf.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining irrigation systems to ensure optimal plant health and landscape aesthetics
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: irrigation systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Maintain irrigation systems to ensure optimal plant health and landscape aesthetics.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 10 out of 100 (3–17 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Irrigation faults are found and fixed at the pipework.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Controlling pests that damage plants
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: pests, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Control pests that damage plants.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Identifying the pest can be done from a photo, but treating the turf or planting is physical, and sprays need a certificated operator.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Watering trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trees, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Watering plants means being there with a hose or can.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Weeding flower beds and borders
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: flower beds, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 5114/00
Source: “Weed flower beds and borders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Weeding beds and borders is done by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Controlling weed growth in gardens and landscaped areas
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: weed growth, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Control weed growth in gardens and landscaped areas.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Weed control means spraying or pulling on the ground.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planting seeds and bulbs to grow plants and shrubs
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: seeds, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Plant seeds and bulbs to grow plants and shrubs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Planting is done kneeling in the soil.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Preparing and establishing ground for grassed areas for sport
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ground, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Prepare and establish ground for grassed areas for sport.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Preparing ground for a sports surface is heavy outdoor work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Preparing, maintaining, renovate and upkeep all sports turf surfaces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: renovate, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Prepare, maintain, renovate, and upkeep all sports turf surfaces.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Turf upkeep is hands-on work across the whole season.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Pruning or trimming trees, shrubs or hedges, using shears, pruners or chainsaws
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trees, shrubs or hedges, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Prune or trim trees, shrubs, or hedges, using shears, pruners, or chainsaws.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Pruning is done with tools in your hands at the plant, so software cannot take any of the cutting on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Renovating and repairing turf surfaces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: turf surfaces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Renovate and repair turf surfaces such as golf greens, tees, fairways and areas of rough.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Repairing greens and fairways is done out on the course with machinery.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Utilising hedge trimmers for shaping hedges
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: hedge trimmers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 5114/00
Source: “Utilise hedge trimmers for shaping hedges.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Shaping hedges with a trimmer is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Building forms for garden borders
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: forms, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Build forms for garden borders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building border edging is hands-on construction work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Collecting debris and refuse from tree trimming and removal operations into piles using tools like shovels and rakes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: debris, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Collect debris and refuse from tree trimming and removal operations into piles using tools like shovels and rakes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Raking and piling cuttings is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Maintaining equipment like strimmers and mowers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: equipment like strimmers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Maintain equipment like strimmers and mowers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Servicing mowers and strimmers is done with spanners in the shed.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating chainsaws for cutting tasks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: chainsaws, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Operate chainsaws for cutting tasks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Running a chainsaw is physical work needing trained hands on the machine, whatever the cutting plan says.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating electric trimmers for trimming tasks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: electric trimmers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Operate electric trimmers for trimming tasks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating an electric trimmer is hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Trimming jagged stumps using saws or pruning shears
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: jagged stumps, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 5114/00
Source: “Trim jagged stumps using saws or pruning shears.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting a stump back tidily is hands-on saw work at the stump itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Clearing snow as part of grounds maintenance tasks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: snow, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Clear snow as part of grounds maintenance tasks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Clearing snow means being outside with a shovel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Cutting holes for sports equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: holes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Cut holes for sports equipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting holes is done with a tool on the ground.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Maintaining pavements, driveways and car parks to ensure proper upkeep
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: pavements, driveways and car parks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Maintain pavements, driveways, and car parks to ensure proper upkeep.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Repairing and cleaning paving and car parks is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Marking lines on sports pitches
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Mark lines on sports pitches.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Marking lines means walking the pitch with a marker.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Moving markers as required for different sports
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: markers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Move markers as required for different sports.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Moving markers is done by hand on the pitch.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Raking mulch and compost leaves
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: mulch, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Rake, mulch, and compost leaves.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Raking and composting leaves is outdoor manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Shoveling snow from paths, driveways or car parks and spread salt in those areas
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: snow, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 5114/00
Source: “Shovel snow from paths, driveways, or car parks, and spread salt in those areas.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Clearing snow and gritting is physical outdoor work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £28,300a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 30,700in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: the cultivation of lawns in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: planning the cultivation of lawns and gardens and evaluating performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where lawns get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: edging lawns using edgers is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 3% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 2% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 95% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 38 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Planning the cultivation of lawns and gardens is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to the cultivation of lawns, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether lawns are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no licence needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near evaluating performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here

You did not come here for a career change and I am not selling you one. But one road out of here is worth knowing about, so here it is with the bill attached.

Groundsmen and greenkeepersGardeners and landscape gardeners
a year or morematched on shared tasks
One of the tasks on your list is on theirs in the same words: “water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans”. Take both published task lists together and about 38% of the work in that job that the software is not taking is work you are doing today.
About 38% of it you could do on Monday. The rest is the price of the ticket.
The work the two jobs share
- You already do
  “Water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans.”
  They do
  “Water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans.”
- You already do
  “Mow lawns using mowers.”
  They do
  “Mow lawns using mowers.”
- You already do
  “Water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans.”
  They do
  “Water trees and plants using portable sprinkler systems, hoses, or watering cans.”
What you would not already have: Nothing in your task list touches “clear garden paths to maintain accessibility and aesthetics”, “maintain and care for plants in different environments” or “apply modular soil- and plant-containing grids over existing roof membranes to create…”. That is the part you would be learning from scratch, and it is roughly the 62% of their durable work you do not already hold.
The honest bill
Pay: £28,500 against your £28,300 (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)).
- The licence gate: Default-closed. This release carries no licence-register snapshot, so I could not check whether that job is regulated, which means I have to assume it might be. Before you spend a penny, look it up on the GOV.UK register of regulated professions; the free routes below link straight to it. The route is banded a year or more because of that unknown, not in spite of it.
- The entry ticket: Typical entry-level education is published for only ten occupations in this release, and neither this job nor that one is among them. So I cannot tell you whether a qualification stands in the way. Treat that as an open question to settle before you commit, not as a green light.
- What the pay gap is telling you: £28,539 against your £28,288 (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)): within a percent of each other, which is to say the same money. Whatever this move is for, it is not for the pay.
- What you live on meanwhile: Nobody is going to pay you to retrain. This is evenings and weekends alongside the job you already have, for a year or more, and if that is not possible right now then this route is not open right now, which is worth knowing before you start. The free, government-funded careers service listed below will talk the funding through with you before you pay anyone.
- Is the target job itself holding up: Gardeners and landscape gardeners scores 18/100 on this site’s own exposure measure (minimal), with 13% of its tasks in the top band. Employment projections are not published for this occupation in this release, so this is the exposure leg of the check only. It passed, which is the only reason it is here.
How long: A year or more, part-time, alongside the job you have. That band is set by the unchecked licence question and by the 62% of their work you would be learning, not by any one course.
See what AI is doing to gardeners and landscape gardeners

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations n.e.c.
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “mow lawns using mowers”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 18% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 18% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Horticultural trades
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “plant seeds and bulbs to grow plants and shrubs”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 14% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 14% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Pest controllers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already control pests that damage plants, and their equivalent is to implement more effective pest control measures for clients. Across both published task lists that is about 7% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 7% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. And it is a narrow door: about 6,400 of those jobs against 30,700 of yours (ONS via Nomis), 21% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 3% of its task weight, across 38 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like edging lawns using edgers arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

In US official statistics this job is counted as First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers, Tree Trimmers and Pruners and Agricultural Equipment Operators. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Nearby moves

The jobs above, as pages you can read the same way as this one. Your job shares its core work with these. That is what the match is, and it is all it is.

Gardeners and landscape gardeners →About 38% of it you could do on Monday. The rest is the price of the ticket.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for groundsmen / greenkeepers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for groundsmen / greenkeepers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for groundsmen / greenkeepers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for groundsmen / greenkeepers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Groundsmen and greenkeepers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 38 official task statements scored for Groundsmen and greenkeepers (United Kingdom, SOC 5114), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 6 out of 100 (range 4–11, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Plan the cultivation of lawns and gardens” (75/100, high); “Evaluate performance and agronomic data of playing surfaces, including weather and soil conditions” (56/100, partial); “Agree on the specification for sports turf projects” (26/100, low). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” stay human?: About 95% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Shovel snow from paths, driveways, or car parks, and spread salt in those areas” (0/100, minimal); “Rake, mulch, and compost leaves” (0/100, minimal); “Move markers as required for different sports” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Groundsmen and greenkeepers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 95% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Groundsmen and greenkeepers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 38 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
17 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.