US dataswitch to UK
First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers
establishing and enforcing operating procedures and work standards that will ensure adequate performance and personnel safety, training workers in tasks and preparing service estimates based on labor. If that's your week, this page is about your job.
The honest answer
AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: maintaining required records, such as personnel information or project records. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.
That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, planting or maintaining vegetation through activities, stays yours. New tools, same person answering for it.
Your week, as this page understands it
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in landscaping or groundskeeping activities. Work may involve reviewing contracts to ascertain service, machine, and workforce requirements; answering inquiries from potential customers regarding methods, material, and price ranges; and preparing estimates according to labor, material, and machine costs. The job title says “first-line supervisors of landscaping”, “lawn service” or “groundskeeping workers”: officially one job, several names. The real job is the part underneath: planting or maintaining vegetation through activities. That is the thing someone has to be right about.
The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers is not one task. It is 28 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is planting or maintaining vegetation through activities, and the ledger below shows exactly why.
Where the work sits, by task weight
- shifting to AI
- 25%
- changing shape
- 4%
- staying human
- 72%
These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.
Whole-job exposure score 35 out of 100 (30–41 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 28 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.
How we know this
What is measured: Every published task statement for first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.
How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.
Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.
Your job, task by task
These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.
- 1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
Shifting to AI
7 tasksTasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.
Scheduling work for crews, depending on work priorities, crew or equipment availability or weather conditions
This is reading one thing and writing another: work in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Schedule work for crews, depending on work priorities, crew or equipment availability, or weather conditions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 79 out of 100 (75–83 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Matching jobs to crews, kit and the weather forecast is planning work software does quickly and well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining required records, such as personnel information or project records
This is reading one thing and writing another: required records in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Maintain required records, such as personnel information or project records.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping personnel and project records is exactly the kind of routine paperwork computers handle end to end.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing contracts or work assignments to determine service
This is reading one thing and writing another: contracts in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Review contracts or work assignments to determine service, machine, or workforce requirements for jobs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading contracts to work out what labor and machinery a job needs is document analysis software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing or maintaining required records
This is reading one thing and writing another: required records in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Prepare or maintain required records, such as work activity or personnel reports.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Work activity and personnel reports follow set formats and can be produced automatically from existing records.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing service estimates based on labor
This is reading one thing and writing another: service estimates in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Prepare service estimates based on labor, material, and machine costs and maintain budgets for individual projects.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (79–87 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Estimating from labor, material and machine rates is arithmetic against published cost data, well suited to software.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Changing shape
1 taskTasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.
Recommending changes in working conditions or equipment used to increase crew efficiency
The software now makes the first pass at changes, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Recommend changes in working conditions or equipment used to increase crew efficiency.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Suggesting efficiency changes is analysis and write-up, though it draws on watching how the crew actually works.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Staying human
20 tasksTasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.
Monitoring project activities to ensure that instructions
This work happens in the physical world: project activities, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Monitor project activities to ensure that instructions are followed, deadlines are met, and schedules are maintained.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 32 out of 100 (25–39 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Tracking deadlines and schedules is straightforward software work, but checking instructions are followed happens out on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting completed work to ensure conformance
This work happens in the physical world: completed work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 10 out of 100 (6–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking finished work against the contract means going and looking at it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Directing activities of workers who perform duties
This work happens in the physical world: activities of workers who perform duties, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Direct activities of workers who perform duties, such as landscaping, cultivating lawns, or pruning trees and shrubs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing a working crew happens on site, alongside them, adjusting to what the ground actually looks like.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Establishing and enforcing operating procedures and work standards that will ensure adequate performance and personnel safety
The value here is that a specific person handles procedures and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Establish and enforce operating procedures and work standards that will ensure adequate performance and personnel safety.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 39 out of 100 (32–46 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Written standards and safety rules draft easily from published models, but enforcing them depends on a supervisor crews respect.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Show the other 18 tasks
Performing administrative duties, such as authorizing leaves or processing time sheets
shifting to AIThis is reading one thing and writing another: administrative duties in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Perform administrative duties, such as authorizing leaves or processing time sheets.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Timesheets and leave approvals run against clear rules in systems software already manages.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Answering inquiries from current or prospective customers regarding methods
shifting to AIThis is reading one thing and writing another: inquiries in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Answer inquiries from current or prospective customers regarding methods, materials, or price ranges.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 79 out of 100 (75–83 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Answering questions about methods, materials and price ranges is standard information already written down for customers.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inventorying supplies of tools, equipment or materials to ensure that sufficient supplies are available and items are in usable condition
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: supplies of tools, equipment or materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Inventory supplies of tools, equipment, or materials to ensure that sufficient supplies are available and items are in usable condition.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stock records are software work, but confirming that tools are present and still usable means looking in the store.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Identifying diseases or pests affecting landscaping and ordering appropriate treatments
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: diseases, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Identify diseases or pests affecting landscaping and order appropriate treatments.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 33 out of 100 (26–40 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Photo-based identification of pests and diseases is now strong, though someone still has to inspect the affected planting.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Designing or supervising the installation of sprinkler systems
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: the installation of sprinkler systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · CoreSource: “Design or supervise the installation of sprinkler systems, calculating water pressure, or valve and pipe coverage needs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 33 out of 100 (26–40 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sprinkler sizing and coverage are published calculations, but the layout depends on walking the actual site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ordering the performance of corrective work when problems occur and recommending procedural changes to avoid such problems
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles the performance of corrective work and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Order the performance of corrective work when problems occur and recommend procedural changes to avoid such problems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Fixes can be suggested from records, but ordering rework and changing how a crew operates rests on a supervisor authority.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conferring with managers or landscape architects to develop plans or schedules for landscaping maintenance or improvement
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles managers and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Confer with managers or landscape architects to develop plans or schedules for landscaping maintenance or improvement.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Draft plans and schedules are easy to produce, but agreeing them with managers and designers is a live discussion.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conferring with other supervisors to coordinate work activities with those of other departments or units
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles other supervisors and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Confer with other supervisors to coordinate work activities with those of other departments or units.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Coordinating across departments happens in conversation, where knowing colleagues shapes what actually gets agreed.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Performing personnel-related activities, such as hiring workers
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles personnel-related activities and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Perform personnel-related activities, such as hiring workers, evaluating staff performance, or taking disciplinary actions when performance problems occur.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Hiring, appraisals and discipline turn on knowing the individual and being accountable for decisions about their livelihood.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Negotiating with customers regarding fees
staying humanThe value here is that a specific person handles customers regarding fees and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Negotiate with customers regarding fees for landscaping, lawn service, or groundskeeping work.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Agreeing a price face to face with a customer depends on the relationship and reading the person opposite.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Investigating work-related complaints to verify problems and to determine responses
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: work-related complaints, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Investigate work-related complaints to verify problems and to determine responses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Complaint records can be drafted automatically, but verifying what went wrong usually means visiting and asking people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Training workers in tasks, transplanting or pruning trees or shrubs, finishing cement, using equipment or caring
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Train workers in tasks such as transplanting or pruning trees or shrubs, finishing cement, using equipment, or caring for turf.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 10 out of 100 (3–17 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Written guides are easy to produce, but teaching someone to prune or run equipment is done shoulder to shoulder.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Directing or assisting workers engaged in the maintenance or repair of equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Direct or assist workers engaged in the maintenance or repair of equipment, such as power tools or motorized equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Guidance can be written down, but equipment repair work is done with hands on the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planting or maintaining vegetation through activities
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: vegetation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Plant or maintain vegetation through activities such as mulching, fertilizing, watering, mowing, or pruning.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mulching, mowing, watering and pruning is physical grounds work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Providing workers with assistance in performing duties as necessary to meet deadlines
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Provide workers with assistance in performing duties as necessary to meet deadlines.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stepping in to help the crew finish a job is doing the physical work yourself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Directing or performing mixing or application of fertilizers
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: application of fertilizers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Direct or perform mixing or application of fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, or fungicides.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Mixing and spreading chemical treatments is hands-on application by a certified operator.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Installing or maintaining landscaped areas
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: landscaped areas, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install or maintain landscaped areas, performing tasks such as removing snow, pouring cement curbs, or repairing sidewalks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Clearing snow, pouring curbs and repairing sidewalks is physical outdoor labor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Touring grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries or golf courses
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: grounds, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Tour grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries, or golf courses, to inspect conditions of plants and soil.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Walking a park or golf course to judge plants and soil means being on the ground looking at them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
What this job pays, and how many people do it
- Median pay
- $58,430a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
- People doing this job
- 130,760in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.
Why this is shifting
The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: required records in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: maintaining required records, such as personnel information or project records and scheduling work for crews. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where vegetation gets done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.
Your move
Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend
Your week is splitting in two, and which half fills it is the whole question. Maintaining required records, such as personnel information or project records is going; planting or maintaining vegetation through activities is not.
So, given all that: 25% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 4% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 72% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 28 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.
The occupation is an average and you are not, so the first job below is finding out where your own week actually sits.
This week: one thing
Print the task ledger above and put your own hours next to each row. Roughly, in pen, in one sitting. Then look at which group your hours actually pile up in. Twenty minutes, this week.
- What you end up holding
- your own week, on one page, sorted into what is shifting and what is not
- How long it takes
- about twenty minutes
If printing it isn’t practical: Read the rows off this page and write the same list on the back of an envelope. Same twenty minutes, same page, and it works just as well said out loud to someone who knows the job. The point is your hours next to the rows, not the paper it is on.
Over the next 90 days
Volunteer toward the durable end, visibly. Over the next ninety days put your hand up for the work in the bottom group (planting or maintaining vegetation through activities) and let people see you doing it. Not a new project: the same job, with your mix deliberately tilted. The point is that when the rota or the reorganisation comes, the version of you people picture is the one doing the part that stays.
Over the next 12 months
Claim a specialism at the durable end and let the other end go. Over a year, deliberately become the person who handles planting or maintaining vegetation through activities, and deliberately stop being the first choice for the rows in the top group. That trade costs something, because the exposed work is often the comfortable work. Decide it on purpose rather than by drift. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.
The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them
I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.
I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to first-line supervisors of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping workers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was first-line supervisors of housekeeping and janitorial workers: only about 11% of its durable work is work you already do and it pays 16.0% less. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 35/100 here, with only 25% of the task list in the top band, and “monitor project activities to ensure that instructions are followed, deadlines are met…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.
How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.
3 moves I checked and rejected
These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.
First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements, and their equivalent is to inspect work performed to ensure that it meets specifications and established standards. Across both published task lists that is about 11% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 11% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: $49,100 against your $58,430, 16.0% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements, and their equivalent is to inspect work areas or operating equipment to ensure conformance to established standards in…. Across both published task lists that is about 7% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 7% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $48,590 against your $58,430, 16.8% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already confer with other supervisors to coordinate work activities with those of other departments…, and their equivalent is to confer with department supervisors or other personnel to assess progress and discuss needed…. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. I will not move you off one melting floe onto another: 61% of its own task list already scores in the top exposure band (64/100 in this release), so the same software is eating it.
What I’d stop worrying about
A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.
The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 25% of its task weight, across 28 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The whole-job doom story
Nothing on this page says this job ends. It says the mix inside it moves. Half the rows above are unchanged or changing shape, and the plan is about which half your week sits in. That is a very different problem, and a solvable one.
Panic-buying a course
Do the twenty-minute sorting exercise first. Most people who buy a course before they have done it buy the wrong one, and the free services listed below will tell you the same thing without charging for it.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.
If you run a team doing this job
If you run a team doing this job, the conversation you owe them is the one on this page, and sooner than feels comfortable. Show them the ledger rather than a reassurance: the rows moving toward the software are maintaining required records, such as personnel information or project records, and the rows that are not are where you want your people visible. Ask each of them to do the this-week move and bring the list to your next one-to-one. It turns a rumour into a piece of work, and it tells you which parts of your team's week are actually at stake. And say the thing out loud that a team lead usually leaves unsaid: a shrinking team is your exposure too, so do the move yourself as well.
You are reading the United States figures
The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Groundsmen and greenkeepers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.
Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match
The other groups this work is counted across:
In UK official statistics this job is counted as Groundsmen and greenkeepers, Pest controllers and Gardeners and landscape gardeners. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.
Your route through this
Where to go next, and what it costs
Free, and complete
The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
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Anywhere in the US:
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
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Anywhere in the US:
Free
No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it
Nothing Collab365 runs is built for first-line supervisors of landscaping / lawn service / groundskeeping workers, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.
There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 25% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.
7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.
The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for first-line supervisors of landscaping / lawn service / groundskeeping workers. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.
Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for first-line supervisors of landscaping / lawn service / groundskeeping workers launches. Nothing else.
That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.
We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.
No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.
Questions people ask about this job
- Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?
- Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 28 official task statements scored for First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers (United States, SOC 37-1012), 25% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 35 out of 100 (range 30–41, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
- Which tasks in “First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers” can AI already do?
- The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Maintain required records, such as personnel information or project records” (93/100, very high); “Prepare or maintain required records, such as work activity or personnel reports” (93/100, very high); “Perform administrative duties, such as authorizing leaves or processing time sheets” (93/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
- Which tasks in “First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers” stay human?
- About 72% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Tour grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries, or golf courses, to inspect conditions of plants and soil” (0/100, minimal); “Install or maintain landscaped areas, performing tasks such as removing snow, pouring cement curbs, or repairing sidewalks” (0/100, minimal); “Direct or perform mixing or application of fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, or fungicides” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
- What should someone working in “First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers” do about AI?
- Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 25% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 72% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
- How is the AI exposure score for First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers calculated?
- Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 28 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.
Where these numbers come from
Worth knowing about these figures
- The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
- 1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
- Task statements
- onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
- Task weights
- onet-db (im-rt)
- Scores
- Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
- Pay and employment
- bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))
Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.
The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.
The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.
Using these figures?
Cite this
Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.
Plain text
Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).
BibTeX
@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
title = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
author = {{Collab365}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
note = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.