Will AI replace Musicians?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 72 official task statements scored for Musicians (United Kingdom, SOC 3415), 29% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 38 out of 100 (range 33–44, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Musicians” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Transpose music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians” (93/100, very high); “Copy parts from scores for individual performers” (93/100, very high); “Create posts for social media to engage with the audience” (93/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Musicians” stay human?

About 47% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Specialise in playing a specific family of instruments or genre of music” (0/100, minimal); “Provide the musical background for live shows, such as ballets, operas, musical theatre, and cabarets” (0/100, minimal); “Enhance improvisation or vocal skills through regular practice” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Musicians” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 29% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 47% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Musicians calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 72 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Musicians

applying elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures, arranging for the transportation of instruments and equipment and composing new music for orchestral arrangements. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: transposing music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 29%
changing shape: 24%
staying human: 47%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 38 out of 100 (33–44 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 72 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for musicians is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, making or participating in musical recordings, stays yours. New tools, same person answering for it.

Your week, as this page understands it

Musicians write, arrange, orchestrate, conduct and perform musical compositions. The job title says “musicians”. The real job is the part underneath: making or participating in musical recordings. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But musicians is not one task. It is 72 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is making or participating in musical recordings, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 29%
changing shape: 24%
staying human: 47%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

33 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

19 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Applying elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures
It is the same call made over and over on elements of music theory, with a right answer to check it against. That is what a model is trained on.
importance 95 · 3415/01, 3415/02, 3415/03
Source: “Apply elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures, including harmonies and melodies.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 65 out of 100 (58–72 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Music theory is exceptionally well documented and tools produce usable harmonies, though the result usually needs shaping.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Transposing music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians
This is reading one thing and writing another: music in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02, 3415/03
Source: “Transpose music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Transposing a part into another key is a button in notation software and has been for years.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planning and scheduling rehearsals to prepare for musical performances
This is reading one thing and writing another: rehearsals in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Plan and schedule rehearsals to prepare for musical performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Setting rehearsal dates around people’s availability is diary work software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Filling in details of orchestral sketches
This is reading one thing and writing another: details of orchestral sketches in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Fill in details of orchestral sketches, such as adding vocal parts to scores.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Adding vocal parts and detail to an existing sketch follows documented craft rules that software applies well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

17 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Arranging music
The software now makes the first pass at music, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 3415/01, 3415/02, 3415/03
Source: “Arrange music composed by others, changing the music to achieve desired effects.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Arranging software helps a lot, but reworking someone's music for a particular effect relies on the arranger's judgement.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Writing musical scores for orchestras using knowledge of music theory and instrumental capabilities
The software now makes the first pass at musical scores, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Write musical scores for orchestras using knowledge of music theory and instrumental capabilities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Orchestration follows well-documented rules, so software drafts scores, but the writing still needs real reworking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Analysing scripts to select musical scores that enhance desired moods
The software now makes the first pass at scripts, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Analyse scripts to select musical scores that enhance desired moods.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading a script and suggesting music that fits the mood gives useful shortlists, though the final choice is a taste call.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

36 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Making or participating in musical recordings
This work happens in the physical world: musical recordings, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02, 3415/03
Source: “Make or participate in musical recordings.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Playing on a recording means being in the studio with the instrument.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Directing groups at rehearsals and live or recorded performances to achieve desired effects
This work happens in the physical world: groups, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Direct groups at rehearsals and live or recorded performances to achieve desired effects such as tonal and harmonic balance dynamics, rhythm, and tempo.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing players in rehearsal or performance means standing in front of them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Studying scores to learn the music in detail
The ratings behind this row put scores well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 75 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Study scores to learn the music in detail, and to develop interpretations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 24 out of 100 (17–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the five ratings behind the score, with no single dominant reason.
The rating behind it: Learning a score and forming an interpretation happens inside the player’s own practice and cannot be handed over.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 62 tasks

Copying parts from scores for individual performers
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: parts in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Copy parts from scores for individual performers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Extracting individual players’ parts from a full score is automatic in the notation software already on the desk.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Creating posts for social media to engage with the audience
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: posts in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 65 · 3415/03
Source: “Create posts for social media to engage with the audience.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Social posts are short, well-patterned pieces of writing that software produces at volume and to a good standard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Updating and managing website content to engage with the audience
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: website content in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 60 · 3415/03
Source: “Update and manage website content to engage with the audience.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (86–100 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing and updating website posts is routine content work software now produces at or above typical standard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring the latest trends in music and music technology
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: the latest trends in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Monitor the latest trends in music and music technology.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping up with trends means reading widely online, which software does quickly and thoroughly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Transcribing ideas for musical compositions into musical notation
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: ideas in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 90 · 3415/01
Source: “Transcribe ideas for musical compositions into musical notation, using instruments, pen and paper, or computers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Turning a played idea into written notation is largely automated by notation software, with the musician tidying mistakes.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Rewriting original musical scores in different styles by changing rhythms
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: original musical scores in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Rewrite original musical scores in different styles by changing rhythms, harmonies, or tempos.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reworking an existing score into another style is a well-documented transformation that music software does convincingly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Editing audio as part of technical work
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: audio in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 65 · 3415/01
Source: “Edit audio as part of technical work.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Audio editing happens on a computer, and the tools now do most standard clean-up to a professional standard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Selecting an appropriate studio for an artist's music production and equipment needs
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: an appropriate studio in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 60 · 3415/01
Source: “Select an appropriate studio for an artist's music production and equipment needs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Matching a studio’s equipment and rates to what a project needs is research and comparison software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Identifying new venues for performances
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: new venues in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 3415/03
Source: “Identify new venues for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Finding new venues is research through public listings and contact details, which software does quickly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Seeking out new music suitable for live performance or recording
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: new music suitable in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 3415/03
Source: “Seek out new music suitable for live performance or recording.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Finding new repertoire is searching and listening, which recommendation tools already do well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Using social media to promote an act
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: social media in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 65 · 3415/03
Source: “Use social media to promote an act.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 70 out of 100 (63–77 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing and scheduling promotional posts is something AI does well, though the artist's own voice still matters.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Considering ensemble size, abilities, score availability and musical variety to select music for performance
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: ensemble size, abilities, score availability and musical variety in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Consider ensemble size, abilities, score availability, and musical variety to select music for performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 68 out of 100 (61–75 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Choosing repertoire follows documented reasoning, though knowing what your particular players can manage stays with you.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Assigning staff to score, arrange and copy music
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: staff in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Assign staff to score, arrange, and copy music.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Matching people to scoring, arranging and copying jobs is scheduling work software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging details, locations, accompanists and instrumentalists for performances
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: details, locations, accompanists and instrumentalists in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Arrange details such as locations, accompanists, and instrumentalists for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking venues, players and accompanists is coordination and correspondence software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collaborating with a manager or agent to handle administrative details
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: a manager in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 60 · 3415/03
Source: “Collaborate with a manager or agent to handle administrative details.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Sorting out admin details with a manager is email and paperwork, which AI tools draft and track easily.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Creating unique music compositions for various projects
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at unique music compositions, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 95 · 3415/01
Source: “Create unique music compositions for various projects.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Music software can now draft usable pieces for many projects, though a musician still reworks them to fit the brief.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Writing music for commercial mediums
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at music, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 95 · 3415/01
Source: “Write music for commercial mediums, including advertising jingles or film soundtracks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Jingles and background music can be generated to a usable draft; a full film score still needs a composer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Writing new songs for diverse musical projects
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at new songs, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 95 · 3415/01
Source: “Write new songs for diverse musical projects.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Songwriting tools produce workable drafts about half the time, but the artist’s own voice still shapes the final song.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Determining voices, instruments and harmonic structures required for a musical composition
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at voices, instruments and harmonic structures, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Determine voices, instruments, and harmonic structures required for a musical composition.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Choosing instruments and harmony is documented craft software can draft, but the result still needs a composer’s ear.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing demo tapes to understand artists' desired sound
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at demo tapes, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 3415/01
Source: “Review demo tapes to understand artists' desired sound.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Listening to a demo and describing the sound an artist wants gives a useful summary, but the read is interpretive.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Producing ghost productions as part of technical work
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at ghost productions, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 60 · 3415/01
Source: “Produce ghost productions as part of technical work.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 58 out of 100 (51–65 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Producing tracks to someone else’s brief is now partly done with generative tools, though results need real reworking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Organising the distribution of recordings offline and online
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at the distribution of recordings offline, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 60 · 3415/03
Source: “Organise the distribution of recordings offline and online.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Getting recordings onto streaming services and into shops is largely admin software handles; physical stock is the exception.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Providing expert feedback on the selection and arrangement of songs for an album
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at expert feedback, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 3415/01
Source: “Provide expert feedback on the selection and arrangement of songs for an album.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Suggesting a running order and song choices is something software does reasonably, though taste and the artist decide.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing logistics for performers or artists participating in events
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at logistics, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 60 · 3415/01
Source: “Manage logistics for performers or artists participating in events.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Travel, call times and arrangements for performers are scheduling tasks software handles, with someone on hand for problems.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging for the transportation of instruments and equipment
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at the transportation of instruments, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/03
Source: “Arrange for the transportation of instruments and equipment as required.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Arranging transport for instruments is booking and paperwork software handles well, with someone checking the kit.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Experimenting with different sounds and music types using synthesisers and computers to evaluate ideas
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at different sounds, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Experiment with different sounds and music types using synthesisers and computers to evaluate ideas.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Trying out sounds is largely done at a computer, but judging what works is the musician’s ear.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Composing new music for orchestral arrangements
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at new music, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/02
Source: “Compose new music for orchestral arrangements.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over.
The rating behind it: Writing genuinely original orchestral music gives starting points at best; the composer’s voice does the real work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing original compositions for orchestral performances
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at original compositions, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/02
Source: “Develop original compositions for orchestral performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over.
The rating behind it: Original composition for orchestra produces only fragments and prompts; the actual piece still comes from the composer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing new compositions for instrumental performances
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at new compositions, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 3415/03
Source: “Develop new compositions for instrumental performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over.
The rating behind it: New instrumental compositions come out as raw material at best; the writing that matters is the composer’s.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planning performances to ensure successful execution
staying human
The ratings behind this row put performances well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 70 · 3415/01, 3415/03
Source: “Plan performances to ensure successful execution.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 32 out of 100 (25–39 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: A performance plan can be drafted, but much of what makes it work is local knowledge on the day.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Organising concerts and tours
staying human
The ratings behind this row put concerts well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 60 · 3415/02, 3415/03
Source: “Organise concerts and tours.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 32 out of 100 (25–39 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tour and concert planning can be drafted, but the deals and local details sit with the people involved.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Creating demos to promote an act
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: demos, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 3415/03
Source: “Create demos to promote an act.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 29 out of 100 (22–36 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: A demo needs the act actually recorded, though much of the production around it can be software-made.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conferring with producers and directors to define the nature and placement of film or television music
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles producers and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Confer with producers and directors to define the nature and placement of film or television music.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 17 out of 100 (10–24 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Agreeing where music sits in a film happens in conversation with the director, where reading the room matters.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Selecting performers for musical roles to achieve desired artistic outcomes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: performers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Select performers for musical roles to achieve desired artistic outcomes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 11 out of 100 (4–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Casting performers turns on live auditions and how someone fits the group.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Participating in media interviews to promote personal or group music
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: media interviews, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 3415/03
Source: “Participate in media interviews to promote personal or group music.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 11 out of 100 (4–18 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Answers can be prepared, but an interview is a live conversation with a journalist about the artist's own work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Assisting artists in achieving their desired sounds
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: artists, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 3415/01
Source: “Assist artists in achieving their desired sounds.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Getting an artist the sound they want depends on being in the room and on their trust in you.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Discussing and preparing for performances with soloists and leaders
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: performances, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Discuss and prepare for performances with soloists and leaders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Preparing with soloists happens face to face and depends on the working relationship between the musicians.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Teaching students to play a musical instrument
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: students, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 50 · 3415/03
Source: “Teach students to play a musical instrument.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Teaching an instrument depends on watching a pupil play and building their confidence over time.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Preparing for auditions by rehearsing and selecting appropriate material
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: auditions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 3415/03
Source: “Prepare for auditions by rehearsing and selecting appropriate material.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Software can help pick suitable pieces, but rehearsing them until they are audition-ready is something only the performer does.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Modifying music to individualise presentations and maintaining audience interest
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: music, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 3415/03
Source: “Modify music to individualise presentations and maintain audience interest.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Changing a piece to suit the room happens live while playing to that audience.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Delivering educational work in schools
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: educational work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 55 · 3415/03
Source: “Deliver educational work in schools, businesses, and the wider community.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Workshop plans are easy to write, but delivering a music session means being in the room playing with the group.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Memorising musical selections and routines for performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: musical selections, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Memorise musical selections and routines for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 2 out of 100 (0–9 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Committing music and routines to memory is something only the performer can do for themselves.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Operating technical equipment for recording and playback
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: technical equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 3415/01
Source: “Operate technical equipment for recording and playback.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating recording and playback equipment is hands-on work at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Positioning members within groups to obtain balance among instrumental or vocal sections
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: members within groups, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Position members within groups to obtain balance among instrumental or vocal sections.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Placing players in the room to balance the sound means being there and hearing it live.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Holding auditions for parts in productions
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: auditions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 55 · 3415/01, 3415/02
Source: “Hold auditions for parts in productions.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Auditions happen in a room with performers present, being watched and directed.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Using gestures to communicate desired tempo in music performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: gestures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/02
Source: “Use gestures to communicate desired tempo in music performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Conducting tempo by gesture only exists when a person is standing in front of the players.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Learning and practicing music pieces for performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: music pieces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Learn and practice music pieces for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Learning and practising a piece is something only the player’s own hands and voice can do.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Participating in recitals as part of live performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: recitals, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Participate in recitals as part of live performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Playing in a recital means being on the platform performing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Performing at concerts, festivals, theatres and other music venues
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: concerts, festivals, theatres and other music venues, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Perform at concerts, festivals, theatres and other music venues.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Playing live to an audience is the performance itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Performing for live audiences
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: live audiences, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Perform for live audiences.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Standing in front of a live audience is the whole task, and that needs a person in the room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Playing musical instruments, such as keyboard, guitar or percussion instruments, during performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: musical instruments, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Play musical instruments, such as keyboard, guitar, or percussion instruments, during performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Playing an instrument in performance is hands-on work by the musician.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Practising regularly to enhance skills and performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: enhance skills, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 3415/03
Source: “Practise regularly to enhance skills and performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Practice builds physical skill in the player and cannot be done for them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Improvising music during performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: music during performances, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Improvise music during performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Improvising in performance happens in the moment on the instrument.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Playing from memory or by following scores
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: memory, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Play from memory or by following scores.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Playing from memory or from a score is physical performance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Rehearsing for performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: performances, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Rehearse for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rehearsing an instrument is physical practice.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Rehearsing music pieces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: music pieces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Rehearse music pieces.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rehearsing music means physically playing it, which only the musician can do.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Rehearsing performance pieces individually or with a group to refine skills
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: performance pieces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 3415/03
Source: “Rehearse performance pieces individually or with a group to refine skills.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rehearsing a piece means playing or performing it, which only the musician can do.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Maintaining and caring for musical instruments and/or vocal health
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: musical instruments and/or vocal health, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 3415/03
Source: “Maintain and care for musical instruments and/or vocal health.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Looking after instruments and your own voice needs hands and a body.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Setting up and tune instruments for performances
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: and tune instruments, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 3415/03
Source: “Set up and tune instruments for performances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Setting up and tuning instruments happens physically at the venue.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Enhancing improvisation or vocal skills through regular practice
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: improvisation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 3415/03
Source: “Enhance improvisation or vocal skills through regular practice.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Practising to improve your own playing or singing is physical.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Providing the musical background for live shows
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the musical background, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 3415/03
Source: “Provide the musical background for live shows, such as ballets, operas, musical theatre, and cabarets.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Providing live music for a show means musicians playing in the pit or on stage.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Specialising in playing a specific family of instruments or genre of music
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: playing a specific family of instruments, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 3415/03
Source: “Specialise in playing a specific family of instruments or genre of music.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Specialising in playing an instrument or genre is skill held in a person’s hands.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £46,600a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 54,300in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: elements of music theory in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: transposing music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians and applying elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where musical recordings get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Your week is splitting in two, and which half fills it is the whole question. Transposing music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians is going; making or participating in musical recordings is not.

So, given all that: 29% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 24% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 47% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 72 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

The occupation is an average and you are not, so the first job below is finding out where your own week actually sits.

This week: one thing

Print the task ledger above and put your own hours next to each row. Roughly, in pen, in one sitting. Then look at which group your hours actually pile up in. Twenty minutes, this week.

What you end up holding: your own week, on one page, sorted into what is shifting and what is not
How long it takes: about twenty minutes

If printing it isn’t practical: Read the rows off this page and write the same list on the back of an envelope. Same twenty minutes, same page, and it works just as well said out loud to someone who knows the job. The point is your hours next to the rows, not the paper it is on.

Over the next 90 days

Volunteer toward the durable end, visibly. Over the next ninety days put your hand up for the work in the bottom group (making or participating in musical recordings) and let people see you doing it. Not a new project: the same job, with your mix deliberately tilted. The point is that when the rota or the reorganisation comes, the version of you people picture is the one doing the part that stays.

Over the next 12 months

Claim a specialism at the durable end and let the other end go. Over a year, deliberately become the person who handles making or participating in musical recordings, and deliberately stop being the first choice for the rows in the top group. That trade costs something, because the exposed work is often the comfortable work. Decide it on purpose rather than by drift. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to musicians (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was actors, entertainers and presenters: only about 9% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 38/100 here, with only 29% of the task list in the top band, and “create unique music compositions for various projects” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Actors, entertainers and presenters
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “perform for live audiences”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 9% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 9% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. This release publishes no median pay for that job, so I cannot show you what the move costs or pays. I do not recommend a move I cannot price.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Dancers and choreographers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “perform for live audiences”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 8% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 8% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. This release publishes no median pay for that job, so I cannot show you what the move costs or pays. I do not recommend a move I cannot price.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Teaching professionals n.e.c.
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “enhance improvisation or vocal skills through regular practice”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 3% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 3% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: £34,396 against your £46,591, 26.2% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 29% of its task weight, across 72 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The whole-job doom story
Nothing on this page says this job ends. It says the mix inside it moves. Half the rows above are unchanged or changing shape, and the plan is about which half your week sits in. That is a very different problem, and a solvable one.
Panic-buying a course
Do the twenty-minute sorting exercise first. Most people who buy a course before they have done it buy the wrong one, and the free services listed below will tell you the same thing without charging for it.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Music Directors and Composers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

Musicians and Singers

In US official statistics this job is counted as Music Directors and Composers and Musicians and Singers. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for musicians, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 29% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for musicians. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for musicians launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for musicians yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for musicians existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for musicians launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Musicians?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 72 official task statements scored for Musicians (United Kingdom, SOC 3415), 29% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 38 out of 100 (range 33–44, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Musicians” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Transpose music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians” (93/100, very high); “Copy parts from scores for individual performers” (93/100, very high); “Create posts for social media to engage with the audience” (93/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Musicians” stay human?: About 47% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Specialise in playing a specific family of instruments or genre of music” (0/100, minimal); “Provide the musical background for live shows, such as ballets, operas, musical theatre, and cabarets” (0/100, minimal); “Enhance improvisation or vocal skills through regular practice” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Musicians” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 29% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 47% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Musicians calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 72 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
33 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.