Will AI replace Publicans and managers of licensed premises?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 52 official task statements scored for Publicans and managers of licensed premises (United Kingdom, SOC 1223), 20% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 35 out of 100 (range 30–41, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Publicans and managers of licensed premises” stay human?

About 58% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Participate in kitchen and dining area cleaning activities” (0/100, minimal); “Restock product displays” (0/100, minimal); “Maintain cleanliness of the bar” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Publicans and managers of licensed premises” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 20% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 58% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Publicans and managers of licensed premises calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 52 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Publicans and managers of licensed premises

ensuring customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience, ensuring timely and accurate payroll processing and net wage payments and maintaining financial records and accounts to oversee hospitality operations. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: administering payroll to manage staff compensation. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 20%
changing shape: 21%
staying human: 58%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 35 out of 100 (30–41 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 52 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for publicans and managers of licensed premises is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, serving clients with beverages and managing the premises, stays yours. The tools change, the responsibility doesn't.

Your week, as this page understands it

Publicans and managers of licensed premises organise, direct and co-ordinate the activities and resources of public houses (non-residential and residential) and bar and catering facilities at non-residential clubs. The job title says “publicans” or “managers of licensed premises”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: serving clients with beverages and managing the premises. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But publicans and managers of licensed premises is not one task. It is 52 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is serving clients with beverages and managing the premises, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 20%
changing shape: 21%
staying human: 58%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

20 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

11 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Monitoring stock levels and ordering supplies
This is reading one thing and writing another: stock levels in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Monitor stock levels and order supplies as necessary.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Stock monitoring and reordering is already automated in most systems, with someone occasionally counting what is on the shelf.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Administering payroll to manage staff compensation
This is reading one thing and writing another: payroll in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Administer payroll to manage staff compensation.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 88 out of 100 (84–92 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Payroll administration is rule-based calculation and filing that software already performs end to end.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Ensuring timely and accurate payroll processing and net wage payments to employees
This is reading one thing and writing another: and accurate payroll in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Ensure timely and accurate payroll processing and net wage payments to employees.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 88 out of 100 (84–92 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Payroll runs and wage payments are rule-based and already largely automated, with someone accountable for the filing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Maintaining financial records and accounts to oversee hospitality operations
This is reading one thing and writing another: financial records in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Maintain financial records and accounts to oversee hospitality operations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 88 out of 100 (84–92 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Maintaining accounts and financial records for the business is bookkeeping that software already handles reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

Changing shape

11 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Managing stock to maintain a constant supply of ingredients
The software now makes the first pass at stock, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Manage stock to maintain a constant supply of ingredients.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Ingredient stock is managed in software, with some physical checking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging deliveries to ensure stock availability
The software now makes the first pass at deliveries, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Arrange deliveries to ensure stock availability.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out what to order from sales and stock figures is routine desk work, though someone still checks the cellar.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring the bar operates within legal regulations
The software now makes the first pass at the bar operates within legal regulations, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Ensure the bar operates within legal regulations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (35–49 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Licensing rules are written down and easy to check, but a named licence holder stays responsible for the bar.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

30 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Ensuring customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience
This work happens in the physical world: customer service meets hospitality standards, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 1223/00
Source: “Ensure customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (0–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Service standards are kept up by someone watching the room and stepping in during service.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Recruiting new employees to ensure efficient bar operations
The value here is that a specific person handles new employees and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Recruit new employees to ensure efficient bar operations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 39 out of 100 (32–46 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Adverts, shortlisting and paperwork are easy to draft; the hiring conversation and final judgement stay human.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring compliance with health and safety regulations
The ratings behind this row put compliance well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Ensure compliance with health and safety regulations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Policies and records can be produced automatically, but keeping the premises safe means someone checking and fixing what they find.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Show the other 42 tasks

Placing catering orders for meetings
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: orders in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 50 · 1223/00
Source: “Place catering orders for meetings.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 93 out of 100 (89–97 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Placing catering orders for meetings is routine booking admin.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Monitoring account profitability to ensure financial targets are met
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: account profitability in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Monitor account profitability to ensure financial targets are met.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (76–90 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tracking profitability against targets is reporting work software does continuously, with the manager deciding what to change.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Recording staff data on specified forms to manage employment records
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: staff data in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Record staff data on specified forms to manage employment records.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 81 out of 100 (77–85 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Filling in staff record forms from supplied details is routine clerical work, checked later against employment rules.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Compiling operational data on forms or in log books
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: operational data in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Compile operational data on forms or in log books.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Compiling operational figures is routine data entry software handles, though paper log books still need filling in.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Managing promotional campaigns for house products to attract customers and boost sales
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: promotional campaigns in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Manage promotional campaigns for house products to attract customers and boost sales.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 70 out of 100 (66–74 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Promotional plans and marketing copy are exactly the kind of writing software produces well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Managing business accounts to ensure financial health
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: business accounts in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Manage business accounts to ensure financial health.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 66 out of 100 (62–70 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Pub accounts are standard bookkeeping that software handles, with an accountant signing off later.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collecting and analysing customer feedback to improve service quality
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: customer feedback in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Collect and analyse customer feedback to improve service quality.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (60–68 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Sorting and summarising customer comments into useful themes is something software already does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Completing disciplinary reports
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at disciplinary reports, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 60 · 1223/00
Source: “Complete disciplinary reports as necessary.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Disciplinary write-ups follow a standard format software drafts well, though a manager must stand behind them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Setting sales targets with the area or business manager
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at sales targets, but the part that matters is a person saying it and standing behind it. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Set sales targets with the area or business manager.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 53 out of 100 (46–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Target-setting maths is easy; agreeing the number is a negotiation between two managers.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging repairs and maintenance of the facilities
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at repairs, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Arrange repairs and maintenance of the facilities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking contractors and chasing jobs is scheduling work software handles, though someone still checks the building.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Arranging inductions for new employees to facilitate smooth onboarding
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at inductions, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Arrange inductions for new employees to facilitate smooth onboarding.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Induction arrangements are largely scheduling and paperwork, though someone usually welcomes the new starter in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Scheduling and overseeing regular cleaning of the premises
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at regular cleaning of the premises, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Schedule and oversee regular cleaning of the premises.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking cleaners and checking the schedule is coordination software handles, with someone confirming the result.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Educating workers on service, sanitation and safety procedures
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at workers, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Educate workers on service, sanitation, and safety procedures.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 46 out of 100 (39–53 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Training material on service, hygiene and safety is easy to generate, though showing someone behind the bar still helps.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Managing cash transactions
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at cash transactions, but part of it still happens in the physical world. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Manage cash transactions.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Card systems handle most payments now, though cash still passes across the bar.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Balancing cash receipts
changing shape
The software now makes the first pass at cash receipts, but part of it still happens in the physical world. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Balance cash receipts.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 41 out of 100 (34–48 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: The reconciliation is automatic, but the cash itself has to be counted and handled by someone.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Advertising entertainment events and recruiting talent
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles entertainment events and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Advertise entertainment events and recruit talent.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 39 out of 100 (32–46 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Writing listings and promoting nights is straightforward; booking acts still rests on personal contacts.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Assessing pub performance with the area or business manager
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles pub performance and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Assess pub performance with the area or business manager.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 39 out of 100 (32–46 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: The sales figures analyse themselves, but the review is a conversation with your area manager.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maximising sales and meeting profit and financial expectations
staying human
The ratings behind this row put sales well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Maximise sales and meet profit and financial expectations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 37 out of 100 (30–44 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: AI can spot sales and margin opportunities in the numbers, though acting on them runs through the venue and its team.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recruiting bar and kitchen staff
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles bar and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Recruit bar and kitchen staff.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Adverts and shortlisting can be automated, but hiring bar and kitchen staff comes down to meeting people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Hiring and dismissing staff
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles staff and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Hire and dismiss staff as necessary.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 28 out of 100 (21–35 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Shortlisting and paperwork can be automated, but hiring and especially dismissal are decisions delivered face to face by a person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collaborating on serving arrangements and related details
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles serving arrangements and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Collaborate on serving arrangements and related details.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Agreeing serving arrangements is a working conversation between people who know the venue and the event.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Recruiting and managing security staff in large or central pubs
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles security staff and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Recruit and manage security staff in large or central pubs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Rotas and paperwork are easy; judging whether a door team suits a busy pub needs a person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Organising daytime and evening entertainment
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles daytime and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Organise daytime and evening entertainment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 26 out of 100 (19–33 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Programming entertainment depends on knowing local crowds and which acts are available, which is not written down.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Investigating and resolving complaints regarding food quality
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: complaints regarding food quality, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Investigate and resolve complaints regarding food quality, service, or accommodation.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Complaints are often settled at the table, though systems can suggest a fair outcome.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing staff to ensure efficient operation of the establishment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: staff, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Manage staff to ensure efficient operation of the establishment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 20 out of 100 (13–27 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Managing staff through a shift means being present with them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing and maintaining professional relationships with breweries
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles professional relationships and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Develop and maintain professional relationships with breweries, suppliers, and customers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (9–17 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Supplier and customer goodwill is built person to person over time, which software cannot stand in for.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Maintaining relations with local community members
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles relations and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Maintain relations with local community members, the police, and alcohol licensing authorities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 12 out of 100 (8–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Standing with the police and licensing officers depends on personal trust built over years.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Training bar and kitchen staff in their duties
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: bar, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Train bar and kitchen staff in their duties.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 10 out of 100 (3–17 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Training notes are easy to write, but showing someone how to pull a pint happens behind the bar.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Training and supervising staff to ensure effective job performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: staff, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Train and supervise staff to ensure effective job performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (5–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Training and supervising staff depends on a person alongside them on the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Training staff in specific job roles to enhance performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: staff, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Train staff in specific job roles to enhance performance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (5–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Training someone in a job role means showing them at the machine and watching them try.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Observing and evaluating workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: workers' appearance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Observe and evaluate workers' appearance and performance to ensure quality service and compliance with specifications.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging how staff look and perform means watching them work on the floor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Motivating staff
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: staff, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Motivate staff.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: People are motivated by a manager they know and see, not by a document.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Ensuring safety and security of licensed premises
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: safety, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Ensure safety and security of licensed premises.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (2–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping a pub safe means being on the floor watching the room, not reading a screen.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Conducting training for workers on food preparation techniques
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: workers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Conduct training for workers on food preparation techniques.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (0–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Teaching a cook a technique means showing them at the bench and correcting their hands.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Supervising other bar staff during service
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: other bar staff during service, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Supervise other bar staff during service.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing staff mid-service depends on being on the floor watching how the shift is going.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Serving clients with beverages and managing the premises
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: clients, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 1223/00
Source: “Serve clients with beverages and manage the premises.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Pouring drinks and running the room happens in the bar, with your hands.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Serving food and drinks to guests
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: food, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 1223/00
Source: “Serve food and drinks to guests.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Carrying food and drink to a table is physical work in the restaurant.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Inspecting supplies, equipment or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: supplies, equipment or work areas, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Inspect supplies, equipment, or work areas to ensure conformance to established standards.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking supplies, equipment and work areas means walking the kitchen and looking at them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Serving wine and spirits to guests
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: wine, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 1223/00
Source: “Serve wine and spirits to guests.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Pouring and carrying drinks to guests is physical work, and the sale must be authorised by a personal licence holder.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining cleanliness of the bar
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cleanliness of the bar, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Maintain cleanliness of the bar.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cleaning the bar is physical work someone has to do in the room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Restocking product displays
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: product displays, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 1223/00
Source: “Restock product displays.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Restocking a display means putting physical products back on the shelf.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Participating in kitchen and dining area cleaning activities
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: kitchen, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 1223/00
Source: “Participate in kitchen and dining area cleaning activities.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cleaning a kitchen and dining room is done with cloths and hands, on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £38,000a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 31,100in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: stock levels in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: administering payroll to manage staff compensation and monitoring stock levels and ordering supplies. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where clients get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Your week is splitting in two, and which half fills it is the whole question. Administering payroll to manage staff compensation is going; serving clients with beverages and managing the premises is not.

So, given all that: 20% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 21% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 58% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 52 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

The occupation is an average and you are not, so the first job below is finding out where your own week actually sits.

This week: one thing

Print the task ledger above and put your own hours next to each row. Roughly, in pen, in one sitting. Then look at which group your hours actually pile up in. Twenty minutes, this week.

What you end up holding: your own week, on one page, sorted into what is shifting and what is not
How long it takes: about twenty minutes

If printing it isn’t practical: Read the rows off this page and write the same list on the back of an envelope. Same twenty minutes, same page, and it works just as well said out loud to someone who knows the job. The point is your hours next to the rows, not the paper it is on.

Over the next 90 days

Volunteer toward the durable end, visibly. Over the next ninety days put your hand up for the work in the bottom group (serving clients with beverages and managing the premises) and let people see you doing it. Not a new project: the same job, with your mix deliberately tilted. The point is that when the rota or the reorganisation comes, the version of you people picture is the one doing the part that stays.

Over the next 12 months

Claim a specialism at the durable end and let the other end go. Over a year, deliberately become the person who handles serving clients with beverages and managing the premises, and deliberately stop being the first choice for the rows in the top group. That trade costs something, because the exposed work is often the comfortable work. Decide it on purpose rather than by drift. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to publicans and managers of licensed premises (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was bar and catering supervisors: only about 27% of its durable work is work you already do and it pays 31.6% less. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 35/100 here, with only 20% of the task list in the top band, and “ensure customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Bar and catering supervisors
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “train and supervise staff to ensure effective job performance”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 27% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: It is closer than most, and still not close enough: about 27% of that job's durable work is already yours, against the 35% I want to see before I will call something a route. It is a pay cut, in those words: £26,019 against your £38,043, 31.6% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Restaurant and catering establishment managers and proprietors
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “ensure customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 20% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 20% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: £31,692 against your £38,043, 16.7% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Catering and bar managers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “ensure customer service meets hospitality standards to improve guest experience”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 20% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 20% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: £29,789 against your £38,043, 21.7% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 20% of its task weight, across 52 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The whole-job doom story
Nothing on this page says this job ends. It says the mix inside it moves. Half the rows above are unchanged or changing shape, and the plan is about which half your week sits in. That is a very different problem, and a solvable one.
Panic-buying a course
Do the twenty-minute sorting exercise first. Most people who buy a course before they have done it buy the wrong one, and the free services listed below will tell you the same thing without charging for it.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

If you run a team doing this job

If you run a team doing this job, the conversation you owe them is the one on this page, and sooner than feels comfortable. Show them the ledger rather than a reassurance: the rows moving toward the software are administering payroll to manage staff compensation, and the rows that are not are where you want your people visible. Ask each of them to do the this-week move and bring the list to your next one-to-one. It turns a rumour into a piece of work, and it tells you which parts of your team's week are actually at stake. And say the thing out loud that a team lead usually leaves unsaid: a shrinking team is your exposure too, so do the move yourself as well.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Lodging Managers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

In US official statistics this job is counted as Lodging Managers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for publicans / managers of licensed premises, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 20% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for publicans / managers of licensed premises. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for publicans / managers of licensed premises launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for publicans / managers of licensed premises yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for publicans / managers of licensed premises existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for publicans / managers of licensed premises launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Publicans and managers of licensed premises?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 52 official task statements scored for Publicans and managers of licensed premises (United Kingdom, SOC 1223), 20% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 35 out of 100 (range 30–41, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Publicans and managers of licensed premises” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Place catering orders for meetings” (93/100, very high); “Administer payroll to manage staff compensation” (88/100, very high); “Ensure timely and accurate payroll processing and net wage payments to employees” (88/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Publicans and managers of licensed premises” stay human?: About 58% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Participate in kitchen and dining area cleaning activities” (0/100, minimal); “Restock product displays” (0/100, minimal); “Maintain cleanliness of the bar” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Publicans and managers of licensed premises” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 20% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 58% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Publicans and managers of licensed premises calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 52 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
20 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.