US dataswitch to UK
Bus Drivers, School
complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner, escorting small children across roads and highways and driving gasoline. If that's your week, this page is about your job.
The honest answer
AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner is work software can't reach.
What shifts is preparing and submitting reports that may include the number of students or trips: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.
Your week, as this page understands it
Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting. The job title says “bus drivers” or “school”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner. That is the thing someone has to be right about.
The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But bus drivers, school is not one task. It is 17 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner, and the ledger below shows exactly why.
Where the work sits, by task weight
- shifting to AI
- 0%
- changing shape
- 16%
- staying human
- 84%
These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.
Whole-job exposure score 15 out of 100 (12–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 17 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.
How we know this
What is measured: Every published task statement for bus drivers, school is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.
How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.
Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.
Your job, task by task
These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.
- One task scored differently between repeat runs, so its range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
- 5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
Shifting to AI
0 tasksTasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.
Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.
Changing shape
3 tasksTasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.
Preparing and submitting reports that may include the number of students or trips
The software now makes the first pass at reports, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (52–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Trip, mileage and hours reports are filled in from figures the bus systems already record, so drafting them is straightforward.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting delinquent student behaviors to school administration
The software now makes the first pass at delinquent student behaviors, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: A behaviour referral is a short written report, though the driver is the one who witnessed what happened.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording bus routes
The software now makes the first pass at bus routes, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Record bus routes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Route details are map and timetable information, and routing software already plans and records them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Staying human
14 tasksTasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.
Complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner
This work happens in the physical world: traffic regulations, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence, and it moved between repeat runs, so the range is widened.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving safely and lawfully is done by a licensed person at the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Checking the condition of a vehicle's tires
This work happens in the physical world: the condition of a vehicle's tires, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking tyres, fluids and safety kit is a hands-on inspection of the vehicle before setting off.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Following safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops
This work happens in the physical world: safety rules, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping children safe as they board, get off and cross the road needs an adult present at the door.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting any bus malfunctions or needed repairs
This work happens in the physical world: any bus malfunctions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Writing up a fault is simple to draft, but noticing the problem means being at the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Driving gasoline, diesel or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools and school activities
This work happens in the physical world: gasoline, diesel or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Driving a bus full of passengers requires a person in the driving seat.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Maintaining order among students during trips to ensure safety
This work happens in the physical world: order among students during trips, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping order among children on a moving bus needs an adult in the vehicle with them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Picking up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations
This work happens in the physical world: and drop off students, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Collecting and dropping children at set stops is driving work that happens on the road.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Show the other 7 tasks
Reporting delays, accidents or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: delays, accidents or other traffic and transportation situations, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 24 out of 100 (17–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reporting a delay or accident is a short message, but the driver on the spot is the one who sees what happened.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reading maps and following written and verbal geographic directions
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: maps, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Map reading itself is well handled by navigation software, but following the directions means actually driving the route.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Maintaining knowledge of first-aid procedures
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: knowledge of first-aid procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: First-aid guidance is widely published, though the point of knowing it is to use your hands when someone is hurt.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Escorting small children across roads and highways
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: small children across roads, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · SupplementalSource: “Escort small children across roads and highways.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Walking small children across a road requires an adult holding the situation together in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Keeping bus interiors clean for students
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: bus interiors clean, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Keep bus interiors clean for students.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cleaning the inside of the bus is hands-on work on board.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Making minor repairs to vehicles
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: minor repairs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Make minor repairs to vehicles.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Minor repairs mean tools and hands on the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Regulating heating, lighting and ventilation systems for student comfort
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: ventilation systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Adjusting the heating, lights and vents means reaching the controls on the bus.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
What this job pays, and how many people do it
- Median pay
- $47,920a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
- People doing this job
- 402,930in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.
Why this is shifting
The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: reports in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: preparing and submitting reports that may include the number of students or trips. What it cannot do is be answerable: traffic regulations need a named person the rules will accept, and software cannot be that person. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.
Your move
Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend
Start with what does not change: complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.
So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 16% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 84% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 17 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.
So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Preparing and submitting reports that may include the number of students or trips is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.
This week: one thing
Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to reports, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.
- What you end up holding
- a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
- How long it takes
- ten minutes
If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether traffic regulations are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.
Over the next 90 days
Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near preparing and submitting reports that may include the number of students or trips. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.
Over the next 12 months
On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.
The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them
I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.
I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to bus drivers, school (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was shuttle drivers and chauffeurs: it pays 22.2% less. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 15/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.
How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.
3 moves I checked and rejected
These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.
Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety…”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 39% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: It is a pay cut, in those words: $37,290 against your $47,920, 22.2% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
School Bus Monitors
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already escort small children across roads and highways, and their equivalent is to escort young children across roads or highways. Across both published task lists that is about 15% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 15% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: $35,100 against your $47,920, 26.8% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 78,420 of those jobs against 402,930 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 19% as many seats.
Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort, and their equivalent is to regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort. Across both published task lists that is about 14% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 14% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
What I’d stop worrying about
A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.
The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 17 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like complying with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.
You are reading the United States figures
The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Bus and coach drivers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.
Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match
In UK official statistics this job is counted as Bus and coach drivers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.
Your route through this
Where to go next, and what it costs
Free, and complete
The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
Free
Why there is no community here
Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.
So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.
Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for bus drivers / school launches. Nothing else.
That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.
We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.
No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.
Questions people ask about this job
- Will AI replace Bus Drivers, School?
- Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 17 official task statements scored for Bus Drivers, School (United States, SOC 53-3051), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 15 out of 100 (range 12–20, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
- Which tasks in “Bus Drivers, School” can AI already do?
- The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption” (56/100, partial); “Record bus routes” (56/100, partial); “Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration” (48/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
- Which tasks in “Bus Drivers, School” stay human?
- About 84% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort” (0/100, minimal); “Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules” (0/100, minimal); “Make minor repairs to vehicles” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
- What should someone working in “Bus Drivers, School” do about AI?
- Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 84% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
- How is the AI exposure score for Bus Drivers, School calculated?
- Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 17 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.
Where these numbers come from
About the data on this page
- One task scored differently between repeat runs, so its range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
- The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
- 5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
- Task statements
- onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
- Task weights
- onet-db (im-rt)
- Scores
- Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
- Pay and employment
- bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))
Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.
The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.
The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.
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Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.
Plain text
Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).
BibTeX
@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
title = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
author = {{Collab365}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
note = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.