Will AI replace Carpenters?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 29 official task statements scored for Carpenters (United States, SOC 47-2031), 9% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 11 out of 100 (range 10–16, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Carpenters” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports” (64/100, high); “Maintain job records and schedule work crew” (64/100, high); “Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers” (64/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Carpenters” stay human?

About 83% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures” (0/100, minimal); “Work with or remove hazardous material” (0/100, minimal); “Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Carpenters” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 9% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 83% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Carpenters calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 29 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Carpenters

following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment, building or repairing cabinets, doors, frameworks and inspecting ceiling or floor tile. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 9%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 83%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 11 out of 100 (10–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 29 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for carpenters is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is maintaining records, document actions and presenting written progress reports: the paper around the work, not the work.

Your week, as this page understands it

Construct, erect, install, or repair structures and fixtures made of wood and comparable materials, such as concrete forms; building frameworks, including partitions, joists, studding, and rafters; and wood stairways, window and door frames, and hardwood floors. May also install cabinets, siding, drywall, and batt or roll insulation. Includes brattice builders who build doors or brattices (ventilation walls or partitions) in underground passageways. The job title says “carpenters”. The real job is the part underneath: following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But carpenters is not one task. It is 29 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 9%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 83%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

3 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Maintaining records, document actions and presenting written progress reports
This is reading one thing and writing another: records, document actions and presenting written progress reports in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping records and writing progress reports is ordinary paperwork software drafts to a usable standard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining job records and scheduling work crew
This is reading one thing and writing another: job records in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain job records and schedule work crew.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Job records and crew rotas are scheduling and record-keeping tasks software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Preparing cost estimates for clients or employers
This is reading one thing and writing another: cost estimates in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (57–71 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Cost estimating from a materials list and labour rates is calculation that estimating software already does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

2 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Studying specifications in blueprints, sketches or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials
The software now makes the first pass at specifications, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading building plans to work out sizes and material quantities is document and number work software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Selecting and ordering lumber or other required materials
The software now makes the first pass at lumber, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Select and order lumber or other required materials.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out what timber is needed and placing the order is calculation and ordering software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

24 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment
This work happens in the physical world: established safety rules, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping a site safe and clean is something done physically, on the site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Measuring and marking cutting lines on materials
This work happens in the physical world: lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Measuring and marking material means working on the timber itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Verifying trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level
This work happens in the physical world: trueness of structure, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking a structure is true means holding a level against it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Shaping or cutting materials to specified measurements
This work happens in the physical world: materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting and shaping material to size is done with tools on the material.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Assembling and fastening materials to make frameworks or props
This work happens in the physical world: materials, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Assembling and fastening a framework means handling materials and tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Show the other 19 tasks

Arranging for subcontractors to deal with special areas
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles subcontractors and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Arrange for subcontractors to deal with special areas, such as heating or electrical wiring work.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Lining up subcontractors is mostly calls and scheduling, though the good ones are usually booked through personal relationships.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting ceiling or floor tile
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: floor tile, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Inspect ceiling or floor tile, wall coverings, siding, glass, or woodwork to detect broken or damaged structures.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Spotting broken tiles, siding or woodwork means being there and looking closely.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim or hardware
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: structures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting windows, floors, trim and hardware means installing them by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Building or repairing cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors or other wooden fixtures used in buildings
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cabinets, doors, frameworks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Build or repair cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors, or other wooden fixtures used in buildings, using woodworking machines, carpenter's hand tools, or power tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building or repairing cabinets, doors and fixtures is craft work with tools and timber.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Erecting scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ladders, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Erect scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Putting up scaffolding or ladders is physical work with heavy components.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Anchoring and bracing forms and other structures in place
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: forms, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Anchor and brace forms and other structures in place, using nails, bolts, anchor rods, steel cables, planks, wedges, and timbers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Anchoring and bracing structures means fixing them in place with real fasteners.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Boring boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: boltholes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Bore boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Drilling boltholes requires a person holding the drill against the material.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Removing damaged or defective parts or sections of structures and repairing or replace, using hand tools
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: damaged, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Remove damaged or defective parts or sections of structures and repair or replace, using hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting out damaged sections and replacing them is hands-on repair work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Installing rough door and window frames
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: rough door, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Install rough door and window frames, subflooring, fixtures, or temporary supports in structures undergoing construction or repair.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rough frames, subfloors and temporary supports are physically fitted on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Finishing surfaces of woodwork or wallboard in houses or buildings
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: surfaces of woodwork, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Finish surfaces of woodwork or wallboard in houses or buildings, using paint, hand tools, or paneling.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Painting and finishing surfaces means applying material by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Examining structural timbers and supports to detect decay
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: structural timbers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Examine structural timbers and supports to detect decay, and replace timbers as required, using hand tools, nuts, and bolts.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking timbers for decay and replacing them means being at the structure with tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Applying shock-absorbing, sound-deadening or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: decorative, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Apply shock-absorbing, sound-deadening, or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fixing panelling to a ceiling or wall means cutting and fitting it in place.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Covering subfloors with building paper to keep out moisture and lay hardwood
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: subfloors, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Cover subfloors with building paper to keep out moisture and lay hardwood, parquet, or wood-strip-block floors by nailing floors to subfloor or cementing them to mastic or asphalt base.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Laying paper and hardwood flooring means kneeling down and fixing it in place.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Filling cracks or other defects in plaster or plasterboard and sanding patch
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cracks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Fill cracks or other defects in plaster or plasterboard and sand patch, using patching plaster, trowel, and sanding tool.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Filling and sanding plaster is done by hand with a trowel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Performing minor plumbing, welding or concrete mixing work
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: minor plumbing, welding or concrete mixing work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Perform minor plumbing, welding, or concrete mixing work.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Plumbing, welding and mixing concrete are all hands-on jobs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Constructing forms or chutes for pouring concrete
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: forms, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Construct forms or chutes for pouring concrete.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building forms and chutes for a pour is carpentry-style work on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Building sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: sleds, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 1 · Supplemental
Source: “Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Building a sled from logs and timbers is physical construction work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Working with or removing hazardous material
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: or removing hazardous material, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Work with or remove hazardous material.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Handling or removing hazardous material means a trained person physically dealing with it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Digging or directing digging of post holes and setting poles to support structures
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: post holes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Digging holes and setting poles is physical outdoor work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $60,580a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 670,090in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: records, document actions and presenting written progress reports in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: maintaining records, document actions and presenting written progress reports and maintaining job records and scheduling work crew. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where established safety rules get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 9% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 8% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 83% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 29 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Maintaining records, document actions and presenting written progress reports is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to records, document actions and presenting written progress reports, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether established safety rules are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near studying specifications in blueprints, sketches or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to carpenters (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was helpers--carpenters: only about 10% of its durable work is work you already do, it pays 27.7% less and there are far fewer of those jobs than of yours. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 11/100 here, with only 9% of the task list in the top band, and “follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Helpers--Carpenters
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment, and their equivalent is to clean work areas, machines, or equipment, to maintain a clean and safe job…. Across both published task lists that is about 9% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 9% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $43,780 against your $60,580, 27.7% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 21,680 of those jobs against 670,090 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 3% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level, and their equivalent is to adjust functional parts of devices or control instruments, using hand tools, levels, plumb…. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $49,590 against your $60,580, 18.1% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Electricians
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already erect scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level, and their equivalent is to work from ladders, scaffolds, or roofs to install, maintain, or repair electrical wiring…. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 9% of its task weight, across 29 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like following established safety rules and regulations and maintaining a safe and cleaning environment arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Carpenters and joiners is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Carpenters and joiners. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for carpenters, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 9% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for carpenters. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for carpenters launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for carpenters yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for carpenters existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for carpenters launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Carpenters?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 29 official task statements scored for Carpenters (United States, SOC 47-2031), 9% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 11 out of 100 (range 10–16, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Carpenters” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports” (64/100, high); “Maintain job records and schedule work crew” (64/100, high); “Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers” (64/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Carpenters” stay human?: About 83% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures” (0/100, minimal); “Work with or remove hazardous material” (0/100, minimal); “Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Carpenters” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 9% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 83% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Carpenters calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 29 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.