Will AI replace Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 26 official task statements scored for Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers (United States, SOC 47-2081), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 3 out of 100 (range 2–7, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Read blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, work procedures, or material or tool requirements” (43/100, partial); “Coordinate work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels” (21/100, low); “Measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings, using tape measures, straightedges or squares, and marking devices” (0/100, minimal). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” stay human?

About 95% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Remove existing plaster, drywall, or paneling, using crowbars and hammers” (0/100, minimal); “Apply or mount acoustical tile or blocks, strips, or sheets of shock-absorbing materials to ceilings or walls of buildings to reduce reflection of sound or t…” (0/100, minimal); “Wash concrete surfaces before mounting tile to increase adhesive qualities of surfaces, using washing soda and zinc sulfate solution” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 95% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 26 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, cutting and screwing together metal channels to make floor or ceiling frames and hanging drywall panels on metal frameworks of walls and ceilings in offices. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 5%
staying human: 95%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 3 out of 100 (2–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 26 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for drywall and ceiling tile installers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Apply plasterboard or other wallboard to ceilings or interior walls of buildings. Apply or mount acoustical tiles or blocks, strips, or sheets of shock-absorbing materials to ceilings and walls of buildings to reduce or reflect sound. Materials may be of decorative quality. Includes lathers who fasten wooden, metal, or rockboard lath to walls, ceilings, or partitions of buildings to provide support base for plaster, fireproofing, or acoustical material. The job title says “drywall” or “ceiling tile installers”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But drywall and ceiling tile installers is not one task. It is 26 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 5%
staying human: 95%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

3 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

1 task

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation
The software now makes the first pass at blueprints, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Read blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, work procedures, or material or tool requirements.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading drawings to work out methods and material lists is desk work software already does reasonably, though site checks still catch errors.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

25 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work
This work happens in the physical world: surfaces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings, using tape measures, straightedges or squares, and marking devices.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Laying out and marking a real wall needs a person with a tape measure standing at the surface.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Fitting and fastening wallboard or drywall into position on wood or metal frameworks
This work happens in the physical world: wallboard, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Fit and fasten wallboard or drywall into position on wood or metal frameworks, using glue, nails, or screws.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting board into place and fixing it to the frame is hands-and-body work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Measuring and cutting openings in panels or tiles for electrical outlets
This work happens in the physical world: openings, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Measure and cut openings in panels or tiles for electrical outlets, windows, vents, plumbing, or other fixtures, using keyhole saws or other cutting tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting openings in fitted panels happens on the wall with a saw in hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Hanging drywall panels on metal frameworks of walls and ceilings in offices
This work happens in the physical world: drywall panels, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Hang drywall panels on metal frameworks of walls and ceilings in offices, schools, or other large buildings, using lifts or hoists to adjust panel heights, when necessary.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Hanging heavy panels overhead, often with a lift, is entirely a physical job.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Assembling or installing metal framing or decorative trim
This work happens in the physical world: metal, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Assemble or install metal framing or decorative trim for windows, doorways, or vents.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting metal framing and trim around openings is physical assembly at the building.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Cutting and screwing together metal channels to make floor or ceiling frames
This work happens in the physical world: together metal channels, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Cut and screw together metal channels to make floor or ceiling frames, according to plans for the location of rooms or hallways.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting and screwing channels into floor and ceiling frames is physical construction.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Trimming rough edges from wallboard to maintain even joints
This work happens in the physical world: rough edges, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Trim rough edges from wallboard to maintain even joints, using knives.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Trimming board edges with a knife to make joints meet is manual craft.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Cutting metal or wood framing and trimming
This work happens in the physical world: metal, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Cut metal or wood framing and trim to size, using cutting tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting framing and trim to length is a hands-on operation with cutting tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing horizontal and vertical metal or wooden studs to frames so that wallboard can be attached to interior walls
This work happens in the physical world: horizontal, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Install horizontal and vertical metal or wooden studs to frames so that wallboard can be attached to interior walls.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fixing studs to frames so board can be attached is hands-on installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

Show the other 16 tasks

Coordinating work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Coordinate work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Coordinating with the finishing crew is partly messaging and scheduling, but much of it happens face to face on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Hanging dry lines to wall moldings to guide positioning of main runners
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: dry lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Hang dry lines to wall moldings to guide positioning of main runners.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stringing dry lines across a room to guide runners is a physical set-up step.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Inspecting furrings, mechanical mountings or masonry surfaces for plumbness and level, using spirit or water levels
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: furrings, mechanical mountings or masonry surfaces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Inspect furrings, mechanical mountings, or masonry surfaces for plumbness and level, using spirit or water levels.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking surfaces for plumb and level means holding a level against the actual structure.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Cutting fixture or border tiles
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: fixture, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Cut fixture or border tiles to size, using keyhole saws, and insert them into surrounding frameworks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting border tiles and slotting them into the frame is manual fitting work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Scribing and cutting edges of tile to fit walls where wall molding is not
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: edges of tile, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Scribe and cut edges of tile to fit walls where wall molding is not specified.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Scribing and cutting tile to an uneven wall is a manual fitting skill.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Fastening metal or rockboard lath to the structural framework of walls
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: metal, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Fasten metal or rockboard lath to the structural framework of walls, ceilings, or partitions of buildings, using nails, screws, staples, or wire-ties.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fastening lath to the building frame is manual work with nails, screws or wire.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Suspending angle iron grids or channel irons from ceilings
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: angle iron grids, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Suspend angle iron grids or channel irons from ceilings, using wire.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Suspending grid ironwork from a ceiling with wire requires being up there doing it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Sealing joints between ceiling tiles and walls
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: joints, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Seal joints between ceiling tiles and walls.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sealing the gap between ceiling tiles and walls is done by hand at the joint.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Mounting tile, using adhesives or by nailing, screwing, stapling or wiring-tying lath directly to structural frameworks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: tile, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Mount tile, using adhesives, or by nailing, screwing, stapling, or wire-tying lath directly to structural frameworks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Sticking or fixing tile to the framework is manual work at the surface.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing blanket insulation between studs and tack plastic moisture barriers over insulation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: blanket insulation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Install blanket insulation between studs and tack plastic moisture barriers over insulation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting insulation between studs and tacking moisture barrier over it is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing metal lath where plaster applications will be exposed to weather or water
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: metal lath, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Install metal lath where plaster applications will be exposed to weather or water, or for curved or irregular surfaces.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting metal lath to curved or exposed surfaces is shaping material by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Applying cement to backs of tiles and press tiles into place
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cement, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Apply cement to backs of tiles and press tiles into place, aligning them with layout marks or joints of previously laid tile.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Buttering tiles with cement and pressing them into line is manual craft work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Nailing channels or wood furring strips to surfaces to provide mounting for tile
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: channels, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Nail channels or wood furring strips to surfaces to provide mounting for tile.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Nailing furring strips to a surface to take tile is hands-on carpentry.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Washing concrete surfaces before mounting tile to increase adhesive qualities of surfaces
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: concrete surfaces before mounting tile, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Wash concrete surfaces before mounting tile to increase adhesive qualities of surfaces, using washing soda and zinc sulfate solution.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Washing down concrete before tiling is a physical preparation job on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Applying or mounting acoustical tile or blocks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: acoustical tile, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Apply or mount acoustical tile or blocks, strips, or sheets of shock-absorbing materials to ceilings or walls of buildings to reduce reflection of sound or to decorate rooms.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mounting acoustic tile and sheeting on ceilings and walls is physical installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Removing existing plaster, drywall or paneling using crowbars and hammers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: plaster, drywall, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Remove existing plaster, drywall, or paneling, using crowbars and hammers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stripping out old plaster and board with crowbars and hammers is heavy manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $58,930a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 83,080in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is the same call made over and over on blueprints, where the right answer is already known. The rows above are exactly that shape: reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where surfaces get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 5% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 95% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 26 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to blueprints, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether surfaces are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near reading blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to drywall and ceiling tile installers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was tile and stone setters: only about 6% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 3/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Tile and Stone Setters
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings…, and their equivalent is to measure and mark surfaces to be tiled, following blueprints. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Tapers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already install horizontal and vertical metal or wooden studs to frames, and their equivalent is to install metal molding at wall corners to secure wallboard. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. And it is a narrow door: about 12,840 of those jobs against 83,080 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 15% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Carpenters
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already fit and fasten wallboard or drywall into position on wood or metal frameworks…, and their equivalent is to assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and…. Across both published task lists that is about 4% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 4% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 26 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like measuring and marking surfaces to lay out work arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Plasterers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Plasterers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for drywall / ceiling tile installers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for drywall / ceiling tile installers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for drywall / ceiling tile installers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for drywall / ceiling tile installers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 26 official task statements scored for Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers (United States, SOC 47-2081), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 3 out of 100 (range 2–7, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Read blueprints or other specifications to determine methods of installation, work procedures, or material or tool requirements” (43/100, partial); “Coordinate work with drywall finishers who cover the seams between drywall panels” (21/100, low); “Measure and mark surfaces to lay out work, according to blueprints or drawings, using tape measures, straightedges or squares, and marking devices” (0/100, minimal). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” stay human?: About 95% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Remove existing plaster, drywall, or paneling, using crowbars and hammers” (0/100, minimal); “Apply or mount acoustical tile or blocks, strips, or sheets of shock-absorbing materials to ceilings or walls of buildings to reduce reflection of sound or t…” (0/100, minimal); “Wash concrete surfaces before mounting tile to increase adhesive qualities of surfaces, using washing soda and zinc sulfate solution” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 95% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 26 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
3 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.