Will AI replace Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 29 official task statements scored for Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas (United States, SOC 47-5023), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 8 out of 100 (range 6–13, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Record drilling progress and geological data” (56/100, partial); “Design well pumping systems” (56/100, partial); “Review client requirements and proposed locations for drilling operations to determine feasibility, and to determine cost estimates” (48/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” stay human?

About 92% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Fabricate well casings” (0/100, minimal); “Signal crane operators to move equipment” (0/100, minimal); “Disinfect, reconstruct, and redevelop contaminated wells and water pumping systems, and clean and disinfect new wells in preparation for use” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 92% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 29 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas

fabricating well casings, placing and installing screens, casings and verifying depths and alignments of boring positions. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 92%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 8 out of 100 (6–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 29 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for earth drillers, except oil and gas is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is recording drilling progress and geological data. This page scores what today's tools actually do, not headlines.

Your week, as this page understands it

Operate a variety of drills such as rotary, churn, and pneumatic to tap subsurface water and salt deposits, to remove core samples during mineral exploration or soil testing, and to facilitate the use of explosives in mining or construction. Includes horizontal and earth boring machine operators. The job title says “earth drillers”, “except oil” or “gas”: officially one job, several names. The real job is the part underneath: operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But earth drillers, except oil and gas is not one task. It is 29 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 92%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

3 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Recording drilling progress and geological data
The software now makes the first pass at progress, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Record drilling progress and geological data.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Logging drilling progress and geological data is routine record-keeping, and rig instruments already capture much of it automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reviewing client requirements and proposed locations for drilling operations to determine feasibility
The software now makes the first pass at client requirements, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Review client requirements and proposed locations for drilling operations to determine feasibility, and to determine cost estimates.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reviewing what a client needs and pricing the job is desk work software drafts quickly from site details and rates.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Designing well pumping systems
The software now makes the first pass at well pumping systems, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Design well pumping systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Sizing a well pump follows published curves and formulas software handles, though a qualified person normally signs the design.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

26 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills
This work happens in the physical world: controls, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Operate controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Working the controls that steady the rig and line up the drill means sitting at the machine.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Starting stop and controlling drilling speed of machines and insertion of casings into holes
This work happens in the physical world: stop, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Start, stop, and control drilling speed of machines and insertion of casings into holes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Starting, stopping and setting drilling speed and casings is hands-on rig operation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Selecting and attaching drill bits and drilling rods
This work happens in the physical world: drill bits, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Select and attach drill bits and drill rods, adding more rods as hole depths increase, and changing drill bits as needed.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Choosing and physically fitting drill bits and rods as the hole deepens is hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Performing routine maintenance and upgrading work on machines and equipment
This work happens in the physical world: routine maintenance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Perform routine maintenance and upgrade work on machines and equipment, such as replacing parts, building up drill bits, and lubricating machinery.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Replacing parts, building up bits and greasing machinery is hands-on maintenance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating machines to flush earth cuttings or to blow dust from holes
This work happens in the physical world: machines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Operate machines to flush earth cuttings or to blow dust from holes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Running the machine to flush cuttings or blow dust out of the hole is hands-on operation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Regulating air pressure, rotary speed and downward pressure
This work happens in the physical world: air pressure, rotary speed and downward pressure, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Regulate air pressure, rotary speed, and downward pressure, according to the type of rock or concrete being drilled.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Adjusting air pressure and drill speed for the rock underneath means working the rig controls as it cuts.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Verifying depths and alignments of boring positions
This work happens in the physical world: depths, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Verify depths and alignments of boring positions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking that a bore is at the right depth and angle means taking measurements at the hole itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 19 tasks

Creating and laying out designs for drill and blast patterns
staying human
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for designs, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Create and lay out designs for drill and blast patterns.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Blast patterns follow published calculations software can lay out, but a licensed blaster has to be behind the design.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Selecting the appropriate drill for the job
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the appropriate drill, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Select the appropriate drill for the job, using knowledge of rock or soil conditions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 25 out of 100 (18–32 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Software can suggest a drill from soil records, but the deciding clues often come from what the driller sees on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Documenting geological formations encountered during work
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: geological formations encountered during work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Document geological formations encountered during work.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 22 out of 100 (15–29 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Writing up the ground conditions is straightforward, but seeing them means being at the face.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Performing pumping tests to assess well performance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: tests, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Perform pumping tests to assess well performance.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Running a pumping test means being at the well, though software can work out what the results mean.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting core samples to determine nature of strata
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: core samples, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Inspect core samples to determine nature of strata, or take samples to laboratories for analysis.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Software can help classify strata from photographs, but handling and inspecting the actual core happens at the rig.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Monitoring drilling operations
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: operations, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Monitor drilling operations, by checking gauges and listening to equipment to assess drilling conditions and to determine the need to adjust drilling or alter equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging drilling conditions partly by ear means standing at the rig while it runs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Drilling or boring holes in rock
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: holes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Drill or bore holes in rock for blasting, grouting, anchoring, or building foundations.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Boring holes in rock for blasting or foundations is hands-on rig work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Driving or guiding truck-mounted equipment into position
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: truck-mounted equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Drive or guide truck-mounted equipment into position, level and stabilize rigs, and extend telescoping derricks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Driving the rig into position, leveling it and extending the derrick is physical machine work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Driving trucks, tractors or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trucks, tractors or truck-mounted drills, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Drive trucks, tractors, or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Driving trucks and rigs to and from work sites means a person behind the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Retrieving lost equipment from bore holes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lost equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Retrieve lost equipment from bore holes, using retrieval tools and equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fishing lost equipment out of a bore hole is hands-on work with retrieval tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Assembling and positioning machines, augers, casing pipes and other equipment, using hand and power tools
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machines, augers, casing pipes and other equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Assemble and position machines, augers, casing pipes, and other equipment, using hand and power tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Assembling and positioning augers, casing pipes and machinery is heavy hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Pouring water into wells
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: water, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Pour water into wells, or pump water or slush into wells to cool drill bits and to remove drillings.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Pouring or pumping water into a well is physical work at the rig.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating water-well drilling rigs and other equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: water-well drilling rigs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Operate water-well drilling rigs and other equipment to drill, bore, and dig for water wells or for environmental assessment purposes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating a water-well rig to drill or bore is machine work at the site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Withdrawing drill rods from holes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: drill rods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Withdraw drill rods from holes, and extract core samples.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Pulling drill rods and taking out core samples is heavy hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Retracting augers to force discharge dirt from holes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: augers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Retract augers to force discharge dirt from holes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Retracting augers to shed dirt from the hole is machine work at the rig.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Placing and installing screens, casings, pumps and other well fixtures to develop wells
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: screens, casings, pumps and other well fixtures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Place and install screens, casings, pumps, and other well fixtures to develop wells.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting screens, casings and pumps into a well is hands-on installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Disinfecting reconstruct
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: reconstruct, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Disinfect, reconstruct, and redevelop contaminated wells and water pumping systems, and clean and disinfect new wells in preparation for use.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Disinfecting and rebuilding a contaminated well is physical work on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Signaling crane operators to move equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: crane operators, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Signal crane operators to move equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Signalling a crane operator means standing where both of you can see each other.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Fabricating well casings
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: well casings, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Fabricate well casings.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Making up well casings is physical fabrication work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $60,190a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 19,450in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: progress in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: recording drilling progress and geological data. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where controls get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 8% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 92% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 29 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Recording drilling progress and geological data is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to progress, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether controls are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near recording drilling progress and geological data. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to earth drillers, except oil and gas (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was rotary drill operators, oil and gas: only about 12% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 8/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “operate controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already regulate air pressure, rotary speed, and downward pressure, according to the type of…, and their equivalent is to observe pressure gauge and move throttles and levers to control the speed of…. Across both published task lists that is about 12% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 12% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and Blasters
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already drive trucks, tractors, or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites, and their equivalent is to drive trucks to transport explosives and blasting equipment to blasting sites. Across both published task lists that is about 9% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 9% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Service Unit Operators, Oil and Gas
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already drive trucks, tractors, or truck-mounted drills to and from work sites, and their equivalent is to drive truck-mounted units to well sites. Across both published task lists that is about 7% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 7% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 29 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like operating controls to stabilize machines and to position and align drills arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Mining and quarry workers and related operatives is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Mining and quarry workers and related operatives. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for earth drillers / except oil / gas launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for earth drillers / except oil / gas yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for earth drillers / except oil / gas existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for earth drillers / except oil / gas launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 29 official task statements scored for Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas (United States, SOC 47-5023), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 8 out of 100 (range 6–13, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Record drilling progress and geological data” (56/100, partial); “Design well pumping systems” (56/100, partial); “Review client requirements and proposed locations for drilling operations to determine feasibility, and to determine cost estimates” (48/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” stay human?: About 92% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Fabricate well casings” (0/100, minimal); “Signal crane operators to move equipment” (0/100, minimal); “Disinfect, reconstruct, and redevelop contaminated wells and water pumping systems, and clean and disinfect new wells in preparation for use” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 92% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 29 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt-with-imputed)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

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Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.