US dataswitch to UK
Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers
testing electrical circuits or components, inspecting and testing systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions, performing mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming and installing expansion and controlling valves. If that's your week, this page is about your job.
The honest answer
AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: complying with all applicable standards is work software can't reach.
What shifts is scheduling work with customers and initiating work orders: the paper around the work, not the work.
Your week, as this page understands it
Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves. The job title says “heating”, “air conditioning”, “refrigeration mechanics” or “installers”: officially one job, several names. The real job is the part underneath: complying with all applicable standards. That is the thing someone has to be right about.
The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is not one task. It is 30 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is complying with all applicable standards, and the ledger below shows exactly why.
Where the work sits, by task weight
- shifting to AI
- 3%
- changing shape
- 11%
- staying human
- 86%
These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.
Whole-job exposure score 11 out of 100 (9–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 30 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.
How we know this
What is measured: Every published task statement for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.
How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.
Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.
Your job, task by task
These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.
- 4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
Shifting to AI
1 taskTasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.
Scheduling work with customers and initiating work orders
This is reading one thing and writing another: work in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 64 out of 100 (60–68 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking jobs and raising work orders is scheduling and admin that dispatch software already does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Changing shape
3 tasksTasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.
Studying blueprints
The software now makes the first pass at blueprints, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading manuals, specs and drawings to work out how a unit should be configured is document work software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Keeping records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions
The software now makes the first pass at records of repairs, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (52–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Keeping repair histories and noting what caused each fault is record keeping, which software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording and reporting time, materials, faults, deficiencies or other unusual occurrences on work orders
The software now makes the first pass at time, materials, faults, deficiencies or other unusual occurrences, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (52–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing up hours, parts and faults on a work order is routine paperwork software drafts well from job data.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Staying human
26 tasksTasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.
Complying with all applicable standards
This work happens in the physical world: all applicable standards, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Following safety rules and keeping the work area clean happens where the work happens.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Testing electrical circuits or components
This work happens in the physical world: electrical circuits, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Putting test leads on a circuit means being at the unit with a meter.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Performing mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming
This work happens in the physical world: mechanical overhauls, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Perform mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Stripping down machinery and recovering refrigerant is physical work that also needs a certified technician.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Discussing heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions
This work happens in the physical world: system malfunctions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Talking a customer through symptoms can be done by phone, but the technician is usually standing at the unit.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing expansion and controlling valves
This work happens in the physical world: expansion, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install expansion and control valves, using acetylene torches and wrenches.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting valves with a torch and wrenches is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Brazing or soldering parts to repair defective joints and leaks
This work happens in the physical world: parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Braze or solder parts to repair defective joints and leaks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Brazing and soldering joints is manual work with a torch.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Show the other 20 tasks
Inspecting and testing systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Interpreting readings can be assisted, but the testing itself means putting instruments on the system.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Adjusting system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: system controls, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: The correct settings come straight from the manufacturer, but someone still has to turn the controls on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recommending, developing or performing preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts or changing filters
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: preventive, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: A maintenance plan is easy to draft, though cleaning, oiling and changing filters is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Estimating, ordering, pick up, deliver and installing materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: pick up, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Estimating and ordering materials is office work, but collecting, delivering and fitting them is not.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Laying out and connecting electrical wiring between controls and equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: this work, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: The wiring diagram can be read and explained, but running and terminating the wires is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Supervising and instructing assistants
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: assistants, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Supervise and instruct assistants.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Teaching an apprentice depends on showing them the work and earning their trust on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Repairing or replacing defective equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: defective equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Swapping out a failed part or damaged wiring is hands-on repair.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Connecting heating or air conditioning equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: air conditioning equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Connecting equipment to fuel, water or refrigerant lines is physical installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing, connecting or adjusting thermostats, humidistats or timers
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: thermostats, humidistats or timers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install, connect, or adjust thermostats, humidistats, or timers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting and setting thermostats and timers is done at the device.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: auxiliary components, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting ducts, valves, blowers and flues is physical installation.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Installing dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: dehumidifiers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool, dry air to operate efficiently, such as computer rooms.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Installing dehumidifiers and related equipment is physical installation work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Cutting or drilling holes in floors
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: holes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, using power saws or drills.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting holes through walls, floors or roofs is physical work with power tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Mounting compressor, condenser and other components in specified locations on frames
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: compressor, condenser and other components, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Mount compressor, condenser, and other components in specified locations on frames, using hand tools and acetylene welding equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Mounting a compressor or condenser onto its frame is physical assembly.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Measuring, cutting, thread or bend pipe or tubing, using pipe fitter's tools
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: thread, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Measure, cut, thread, or bend pipe or tubing, using pipe fitter's tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cutting, threading and bending pipe is done with tools in your hands.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Installing or repairing air purification systems
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: air purification systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · SupplementalSource: “Install or repair air purification systems, such as specialized filters or ultraviolet (UV) light purification systems.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting or repairing filters and ultraviolet purification units is hands-on.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Laying out reference points for installation of structural and functional components
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: reference points, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · CoreSource: “Lay out reference points for installation of structural and functional components, using measuring instruments.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Setting out reference points with measuring instruments happens on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Lifting and aligning components into position
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: components, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · CoreSource: “Lift and align components into position, using hoist or block and tackle.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting and aligning heavy parts with a hoist is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing or repairing self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: self-contained ground source heat pumps, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Installing or repairing a ground source heat pump is heavy physical installation work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Repairing or servicing heating ventilating and air conditioning
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: air, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Changing filters, cleaning ducts and topping up refrigerant is physical servicing.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Testing pipes, lines, components and connections for leaks
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: pipes, lines, components and connections, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not publishedO*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Finding leaks means testing the actual pipes and connections on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
What this job pays, and how many people do it
- Median pay
- $61,010a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
- People doing this job
- 409,670in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.
Why this is shifting
The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: work in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: scheduling work with customers and initiating work orders and studying blueprints. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where all applicable standards get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.
Your move
Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend
Start with what does not change: complying with all applicable standards is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.
So, given all that: 3% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 11% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 86% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 30 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.
So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Scheduling work with customers and initiating work orders is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.
This week: one thing
Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to work, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.
- What you end up holding
- a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
- How long it takes
- ten minutes
If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether all applicable standards are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.
Over the next 90 days
Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near studying blueprints. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.
Over the next 12 months
On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.
The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them
I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.
I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was electricians: only about 5% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 11/100 here, with only 3% of the task list in the top band, and “comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.
How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.
3 moves I checked and rejected
These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.
Electricians
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment, and their equivalent is to test electrical systems or continuity of circuits in electrical wiring, equipment, or fixtures…. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring, and their equivalent is to repair or replace faulty equipment. Across both published task lists that is about 4% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 4% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment, and their equivalent is to diagnose electrical problems and install and rewire electrical components. Across both published task lists that is about 4% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 4% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $39,630 against your $61,010, 35.0% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 95,580 of those jobs against 409,670 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 23% as many seats.
What I’d stop worrying about
A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.
The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 3% of its task weight, across 30 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like complying with all applicable standards arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.
You are reading the United States figures
The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Air-conditioning and refrigeration installers and repairers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.
Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match
The other groups this work is counted across:
In UK official statistics this job is counted as Air-conditioning and refrigeration installers and repairers and Engineering professionals n.e.c.. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.
Your route through this
Where to go next, and what it costs
Free, and complete
The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
Free
Why there is no community here
Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.
So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.
Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for heating / air conditioning / refrigeration mechanics / installers launches. Nothing else.
That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.
We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.
No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.
Questions people ask about this job
- Will AI replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?
- Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 30 official task statements scored for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (United States, SOC 49-9021), 3% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 11 out of 100 (range 9–16, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
- Which tasks in “Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers” can AI already do?
- The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock” (64/100, high); “Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders” (56/100, partial); “Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions” (56/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
- Which tasks in “Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers” stay human?
- About 86% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks” (0/100, minimal); “Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling…” (0/100, minimal); “Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce ca…” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
- What should someone working in “Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers” do about AI?
- Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 3% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 86% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
- How is the AI exposure score for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers calculated?
- Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 30 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.
Where these numbers come from
Worth knowing about these figures
- The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
- 4 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
- Task statements
- onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
- Task weights
- onet-db (im-rt-with-imputed)
- Scores
- Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-04.
- Pay and employment
- bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))
Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.
The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.
The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.
Using these figures?
Cite this
Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.
Plain text
Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).
BibTeX
@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
title = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
author = {{Collab365}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
note = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.