US dataswitch to UK
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
following appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods, reporting vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations or damage to the vehicles and performing basic vehicle maintenance tasks. If that's your week, this page is about your job.
The honest answer
AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: reading and interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.
That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order, stays yours. New tools, same person answering for it.
Your week, as this page understands it
Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers. The job title says “heavy” or “tractor-trailer truck drivers”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order. That is the thing someone has to be right about.
The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is not one task. It is 29 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order, and the ledger below shows exactly why.
Where the work sits, by task weight
- shifting to AI
- 20%
- changing shape
- 4%
- staying human
- 76%
These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.
Whole-job exposure score 18 out of 100 (15–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 29 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.
How we know this
What is measured: Every published task statement for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.
How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.
Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.
Your job, task by task
These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.
- 2 tasks scored differently between repeat runs, so their range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
- 1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
Shifting to AI
5 tasksTasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.
Checking all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy
This is reading one thing and writing another: all load-related documentation in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 61 out of 100 (54–68 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Checking load paperwork for completeness and accuracy is document checking, though the driver signs for it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collecting delivery instructions from appropriate sources
This is reading one thing and writing another: delivery instructions in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (62–76 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Gathering delivery instructions and checking them against the route is information work done from documents and systems.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reading and interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes
This is reading one thing and writing another: maps in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working out a route from maps is something navigation software does at least as well, though the driver reads it in the cab.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Reading bills of lading to determine assignment details
This is reading one thing and writing another: bills in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Read bills of lading to determine assignment details.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (65–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Reading a bill of lading to work out the assignment details is straightforward document work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Planning or adjusting routes based on changing conditions
This is reading one thing and writing another: routes in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Adjusting routes for traffic, weather and fuel use is what navigation software calculates, though the driver applies it in the cab.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Changing shape
1 taskTasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.
Maintaining logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repairing status
The software now makes the first pass at logs of working hours, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 43 out of 100 (36–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Duty and service logs are largely produced automatically now, though federal rules require the driver to certify them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Staying human
23 tasksTasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.
Checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order
This work happens in the physical world: vehicles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Checking that brakes, lights and safety kit work means walking around and testing the actual vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations or damage to the vehicles
This work happens in the physical world: vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations or damage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Writing up a defect, accident or damage report is easy, but noticing it means being with the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Performing basic vehicle maintenance tasks
This work happens in the physical world: basic vehicle maintenance tasks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Topping up oil and fluids, minor repairs and washing the truck are hands-on jobs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Maneuvering trucks into loading or unloading positions
This work happens in the physical world: trucks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Positioning a truck at a loading bay needs someone at the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Show the other 19 tasks
Operating equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones or global positioning systems
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Cab computers, radios and phones pass information easily, but the driver is the one using them on the road.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inventorying and inspecting goods to be moved to determine quantities and conditions
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Inventory and inspect goods to be moved to determine quantities and conditions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 14 out of 100 (7–21 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Counting and checking goods before a move means being with them, though the resulting inventory is simple record work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Giving directions to laborers who are packing goods and moving them onto trailers
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: directions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Give directions to laborers who are packing goods and moving them onto trailers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing loaders as they pack and load is done face to face at the trailer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Following appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: appropriate safety procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · SupplementalSource: “Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Handling dangerous goods safely means doing the physical steps yourself, and the rules require a specially licensed driver.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Obtaining receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collecting payment for services
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: receipts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Collecting a signature or payment at the delivery point means being there with the customer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Driving trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: trucks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving a heavy truck between places needs a licensed driver in the cab.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Securing cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders or covers
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: cargo, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · SupplementalSource: “Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Roping, chaining and covering cargo so it cannot move is hands-on work on the load.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Coupling or uncoupling trailers by changing trailer jack positions
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: trailers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence, and it moved between repeat runs, so the range is widened.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Coupling and uncoupling trailers, air lines and locks is hands-on mechanical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Checking conditions of trailers after contents have been unloaded to ensure that there has been no damage
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: conditions of trailers after contents, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Check conditions of trailers after contents have been unloaded to ensure that there has been no damage.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking an emptied trailer for damage means looking inside it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Cranking trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: trailer landing gear up, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Crank trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Winding trailer landing gear up and down is physical work at the trailer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Removing debris from loaded trailers
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: debris, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Remove debris from loaded trailers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Clearing debris from a loaded trailer is manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Following special cargo-related procedures
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: special cargo-related procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Follow special cargo-related procedures, such as checking refrigeration systems for frozen foods or providing food or water for livestock.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking refrigeration or feeding and watering livestock means being with the load.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Installing or removing special equipment
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: special equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Install or remove special equipment, such as tire chains, grader blades, plow blades, or sanders.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting or removing chains, blades and sanders is hands-on mechanical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Performing emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains or spark plugs
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: emergency roadside repairs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Perform emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains, or spark plugs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Roadside repairs like changing a tire or fitting chains are physical jobs at the truck.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating idle reduction systems or auxiliary power systems to generate power from alternative sources
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: idle reduction systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Operate idle reduction systems or auxiliary power systems to generate power from alternative sources, such as fuel cells, to reduce idling time, to heat or cool truck cabins, or to provide power for other equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Running idle-reduction or auxiliary power systems means operating the equipment on the truck.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting loads to ensure that cargo is secure
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: loads, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · CoreSource: “Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence, and it moved between repeat runs, so the range is widened.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking that a load is secure means climbing on the trailer and pulling on the straps.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Driving trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: trucks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Drive trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Taking the truck to a weigh station means driving it there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Loading or unloading trucks or help others with loading or unloading
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: trucks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · CoreSource: “Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Loading and unloading a truck is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Wrapping and securing goods
staying humanThis work happens in the physical world: goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · SupplementalSource: “Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Wrapping and strapping goods with pads, paper and straps is manual work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
What this job pays, and how many people do it
- Median pay
- $58,640a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
- People doing this job
- 2,062,040in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.
Why this is shifting
The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: all load-related documentation in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: reading and interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes and checking all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy. What it cannot do is be answerable: vehicles need a named person the rules will accept, and software cannot be that person. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.
Your move
Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend
Start with what does not change: checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.
So, given all that: 20% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 4% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 76% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 29 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.
So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Reading and interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.
This week: one thing
Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to all load-related documentation, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.
- What you end up holding
- a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
- How long it takes
- ten minutes
If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations or damage are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.
Over the next 90 days
Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near maintaining logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repairing status. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.
Over the next 12 months
On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.
The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them
I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.
I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was software developers: the 2.3× pay gap is the market pricing a barrier and there is a qualification in the way you would have to buy first. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 18/100 here, with only 20% of the task list in the top band, and “check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.
How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.
3 moves I checked and rejected
These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.
Software Developers
Why it looked obvious: The 'just learn to code' suggestion every driver has had shouted at them. Included specifically so the ban is testable.
Why I am not recommending it: Three independent failures. Coverage gate: there is no shared detailed work activity - a truck driver's 29 tasks are loading, securing, coupling, inspecting, routing and legally operating a vehicle; a developer's are requirements analysis, system design and testing. The check on that: 135,980 / 58,640 = 2.32x, above the 2.0 threshold. The check on that: typical entry-level education 'Postsecondary nondegree award' to 'Bachelor's degree' - a degree gate.
Electricians
Why it looked obvious: Both are licensed, safety-critical, hands-on jobs with similar pay, and 'go into the trades' is the advice drivers hear most often after 'learn to code'.
Why I am not recommending it: Fails the coverage gate before the filters. The shared work is generic - hand tools, fault-finding, following safety rules - not shared detailed work activity. An electrician's durable core (wiring layout from blueprints, conduit runs, circuit testing, code compliance) is work a driver does not do at all, so 'you already do part of this job' would be false. Recorded rather than silently dropped because the filters alone would have passed it: That check passes (+9.5%), That check passes (1.08x), That check does not fire (36.7%).
Light Truck Drivers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already perform emergency roadside repairs, and their equivalent is to perform emergency repairs. Across both published task lists that is about 10% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 10% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: $44,860 against your $58,640, 23.5% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
What I’d stop worrying about
A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.
The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 20% of its task weight, across 29 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like checking vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety and emergency equipment is in good working order arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.
You are reading the United States figures
The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.
Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match
In UK official statistics this job is counted as Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.
Your route through this
Where to go next, and what it costs
Free, and complete
The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
Free
Anywhere in the US:
Free to search; registered apprenticeships are paid work
No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it
Nothing Collab365 runs is built for truck driver, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.
The working behind that
There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 20% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.
7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.
The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for truck driver. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.
Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for professional drivers launches. Nothing else.
That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.
We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.
No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.
Questions people ask about this job
- Will AI replace Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?
- Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 29 official task statements scored for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (United States, SOC 53-3032), 20% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 18 out of 100 (range 15–23, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
- Which tasks in “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers” can AI already do?
- The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes” (75/100, high); “Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to min…” (75/100, high); “Read bills of lading to determine assignment details” (69/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
- Which tasks in “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers” stay human?
- About 76% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps” (0/100, minimal); “Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary” (0/100, minimal); “Drive trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
- What should someone working in “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers” do about AI?
- Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 20% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 76% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
- How is the AI exposure score for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers calculated?
- Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 29 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.
Where these numbers come from
About the data on this page
- 2 tasks scored differently between repeat runs, so their range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
- The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
- 1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
- Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
- Task statements
- onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
- Task weights
- onet-db (im-rt)
- Scores
- Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
- Pay and employment
- bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))
Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.
The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.
The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.
Using these figures?
Cite this
Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.
Plain text
Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).
BibTeX
@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
title = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
author = {{Collab365}},
year = {2026},
url = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
note = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.