Will AI replace Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 55 official task statements scored for Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers (United Kingdom, SOC 8211), 18% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 20 out of 100 (range 18–25, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Interpret maps to determine vehicle routes” (83/100, very high); “Maintain logs of vehicle service status following national and federal regulations” (81/100, very high); “Monitor the vehicle inspection schedule for servicing and MOT” (81/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” stay human?

About 76% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Wash lorries to keep them clean” (0/100, minimal); “Operate lorries with snowploughs to maintain roads in winter” (0/100, minimal); “Install light bulbs for emergency roadside vehicle maintenance” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 18% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 76% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 55 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers

driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law, verifying instructions and routes and arranging for delivery of freight or luggage. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 18%
changing shape: 5%
staying human: 76%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 20 out of 100 (18–25 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 55 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for heavy and large goods vehicle drivers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law, stays yours. The tools change hands, the accountability doesn't.

Your week, as this page understands it

HGV and LGV drivers collect, transport and deliver goods in rigid vehicles over 7.5 tonnes, articulated lorries and lorries pulling trailers. The job title says “heavy” or “large goods vehicle drivers”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But heavy and large goods vehicle drivers is not one task. It is 55 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 18%
changing shape: 5%
staying human: 76%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

One task scored differently between repeat runs, so its range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

10 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes
This is reading one thing and writing another: maps in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 83 out of 100 (79–87 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Satnav reads maps and picks routes very well, though drivers still override it when a road suits no lorry.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Maintaining logs of vehicle service status following national and federal regulations
This is reading one thing and writing another: logs of vehicle service status following national in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Maintain logs of vehicle service status following national and federal regulations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 81 out of 100 (77–85 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Service logs are records built from vehicle data, and software keeps them more reliably than hand-written sheets.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Developing efficient delivery routes for goods
This is reading one thing and writing another: efficient delivery routes in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Develop efficient delivery routes for goods.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Route planning software already does this well, though drivers still correct it for bridges, access and awkward drops.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Verifying instructions and routes
This is reading one thing and writing another: instructions in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Verify instructions and routes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Checking instructions and routes against the job details is document work software can do most of.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Changing shape

3 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Arranging for delivery of freight or luggage
The software now makes the first pass at delivery of freight, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Arrange for delivery of freight or luggage.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Booking and scheduling deliveries is mostly messages and records, which software handles well, though you sometimes need to be there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Coordinating special transport for sensitive cargoes
The software now makes the first pass at special transport, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Coordinate special transport for sensitive cargoes, including livestock, food, and medical supplies.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (35–49 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Arranging special transport is mostly planning, permits and bookings, which software handles well from the paperwork.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Confirming deliveries and collections with head offices and receiving further delivery instructions
The software now makes the first pass at deliveries, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Confirm deliveries and collections with head offices and receive further delivery instructions.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 53 out of 100 (49–57 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Confirming drops and picking up new instructions is routine messaging that transport software already handles for most jobs.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

Staying human

42 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law
This work happens in the physical world: the vehicle, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 8211/00
Source: “Drive the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law, including tachograph and drivers' hours limits.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving a lorry within tachograph and hours rules means a licensed person physically at the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Performing daily vehicle checks to ensure safety and complete the daily defect report
This work happens in the physical world: vehicle checks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8211/00
Source: “Perform daily vehicle checks to ensure safety and complete the daily defect report.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: The check itself is hands-on, though software can help fill in the defect report once you have looked.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Checking a vehicle's oil, fuel, water and safety equipment to ensure they are in working order
This work happens in the physical world: a vehicle's oil, fuel, water and safety equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8211/00
Source: “Check a vehicle's oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure they are in working order.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking oil, fuel, water and safety kit means opening the cab and looking, so someone has to be there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 45 tasks

Monitoring the vehicle inspection schedule for servicing and MOT
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: the vehicle inspection schedule in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Monitor the vehicle inspection schedule for servicing and MOT.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 81 out of 100 (77–85 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tracking when vehicles are due for service and MOT is diary and records work software does reliably.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining records of work hours to comply with regulations
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: records of work hours in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Maintain records of work hours to comply with regulations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 81 out of 100 (77–85 allowing for uncertainty): very high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Working-hours records come straight off the tachograph, and software keeps and checks them accurately.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining accurate records of deliveries
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: accurate records of deliveries in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Maintain accurate records of deliveries.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Delivery records are captured by handheld devices and transport systems that log and file them automatically.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Interpreting consignment notes to determine assignment details
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: consignment notes in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Interpret consignment notes to determine assignment details.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (68–82 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Pulling job details out of a consignment note is document reading software does well, with odd handwritten notes to check.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Regularlying review traffic reports and adjusting routes
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: review traffic reports in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Regularly review traffic reports and adjust routes as necessary.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Live traffic data and automatic rerouting are what navigation software already does better than checking reports by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Updating delivery paperwork
shifting to AI
This is reading one thing and writing another: delivery paperwork in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Update delivery paperwork.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 69 out of 100 (65–73 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Filling in delivery paperwork is form work software handles well, though the driver captures it at the drop.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting accidents promptly in compliance with legal requirements and company procedures
staying human
The ratings behind this row put accidents well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Report accidents promptly in compliance with legal requirements and company procedures.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Software can draft the report and the forms, but what happened is the driver's own account of being there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences or damage to vehicles
staying human
The ratings behind this row put vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences or damage well outside what today's tools can do on their own.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic offences, or damage to vehicles.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Software can prepare the report, but noticing the defect or damage comes from the driver being with the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Maintaining inventories of vehicle supplies
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: inventories of vehicle supplies, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Maintain inventories of vehicle supplies.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Stock records are software work, but someone still has to look in the vehicle and count what is there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Communicating with supervisors or other drivers using lorry cab computers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: supervisors, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Communicate with supervisors or other drivers using lorry cab computers, CB radios, phones, or GPS equipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Software can pass messages, but much of this is talking about what you can see from the cab right now.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Checking refrigeration systems for frozen foods to ensure proper temperature control
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: refrigeration systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Check refrigeration systems for frozen foods to ensure proper temperature control.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 13 out of 100 (6–20 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fridge units are increasingly monitored automatically, but the driver still checks the unit itself on the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting product load for accuracy to ensure timely and complete delivery
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: product load, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Inspect product load for accuracy to ensure timely and complete delivery.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 10 out of 100 (6–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking the load actually matches the paperwork means looking at the goods on the vehicle before setting off.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring relevant staff sign for deliveries
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: relevant staff sign, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Ensure relevant staff sign for deliveries.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Someone has to be at the door with the device when the customer signs for the goods.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Collecting payments for goods
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: payments, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Collect payments for goods delivered or loaded.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Card and app payments already handle much of this, but collecting at the door still needs someone there.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting premises and vehicles to ensure they meet specific safety and operational standards
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: premises, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Inspect premises and vehicles to ensure they meet specific safety and operational standards.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Judging whether premises and vehicles meet standards means walking round and looking, though the write-up is desk work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Undergoing continuation training for driver role awareness
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: continuation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Undergo continuation training for driver role awareness.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 7 out of 100 (0–14 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driver training is something the person has to sit through and absorb, much of it in an approved classroom.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Efficientlying offload goods and effectively handle customer queries or concerns
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: offload goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Efficiently offload goods and effectively handle customer queries or concerns.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Getting goods off the lorry is physical, and the customer conversation happens face to face at the delivery point.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Delivering goods timely and safely while respecting customer's property
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8211/00
Source: “Deliver goods timely and safely while respecting customer's property.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Getting goods to the door in one piece is a job of moving things in the real world.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Inspecting vehicles prior to departure
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: vehicles prior, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8211/00
Source: “Inspect vehicles prior to departure.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: A pre-departure walkaround means physically going round the vehicle, which no software can do for you.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Loading and unloading goods from lorries for delivery and transporting operations
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8211/00
Source: “Load and unload goods from lorries for delivery and transport operations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting goods on and off a lorry is hands-on work that needs a person at the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Assisting in loading and unloading goods safely
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: loading, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Assist in loading and unloading goods safely.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Helping load and unload is physical lifting, so it needs someone at the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Checking tyre pressure and levels of fuel
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: tyre pressure, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Check tyre pressure and levels of fuel, motor oil, transmission, and radiator fluids, adding air or fluids as required.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Topping up tyres and fluids means handling the vehicle itself, which cannot be done from a screen.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Coupling or uncoupling trailers by changing trailer jack positions
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trailers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence, and it moved between repeat runs, so the range is widened.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Coupling and uncoupling trailers, air lines and locks is hands-on mechanical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Driving lorries to deliver food
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lorries, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Drive lorries to deliver food, medical supplies, or newspapers to specified destinations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Delivering by lorry needs a licensed driver physically behind the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Following appropriate safety procedures for transporting hazardous goods
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: appropriate safety procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting hazardous goods.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Carrying hazardous loads needs a certificated driver handling the goods in person, even though the rules are written down.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Inspecting vehicles for safety issues before journeys
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: vehicles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Inspect vehicles for safety issues before journeys.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking a vehicle for safety faults before a journey means walking round it and looking.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Loading and unloading cargo from vehicles to ensure safe and efficient transport
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cargo, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Load and unload cargo from vehicles to ensure safe and efficient transport.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Moving cargo on and off vehicles is physical work at the loading point.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Manoeuvring lorries into loading or unloading positions
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lorries, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Manoeuvre lorries into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and ensuring proper positioning.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Positioning a lorry for loading means driving it, watching the crew and judging the space in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Securing and protecting the load using approved methods and equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the load, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8211/00
Source: “Secure and protect the load using approved methods and equipment, minimizing the potential for slippage.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Strapping and sheeting a load so nothing shifts is hands-on work on the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Inspecting loads to ensure cargo security
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: loads, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8211/00
Source: “Inspect loads to ensure cargo security.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking a load is secure means climbing on the vehicle and testing the straps by hand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing straps, braces and padding to loads to prevent shifting or damage during shipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: straps, braces, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8211/00
Source: “Install straps, braces, and padding to loads to prevent shifting or damage during shipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Strapping and packing a load so it cannot shift is hands-on work with the straps and the freight itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Changing tyres during emergency roadside repairs
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: tyres during emergency roadside repairs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Change tyres during emergency roadside repairs.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Changing a lorry tyre at the roadside is heavy physical work needing hands and tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Driving lorries to weighbridges before and after loading in compliance with state regulations
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lorries, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Drive lorries to weighbridges before and after loading in compliance with state regulations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving to and over a weighbridge needs a licensed driver in the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Supervising the loading of the tanker
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the loading of the tanker, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Supervise the loading of the tanker.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Watching a tanker being filled is a safety job needing a trained person standing at the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Winding trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: trailer landing gear up, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8211/00
Source: “Wind trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Winding trailer landing gear is physical work done by hand at the trailer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Connecting hoses or pumps to unload materials into fuel tanks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: hoses, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8211/00
Source: “Connect hoses or pumps to unload materials into fuel tanks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Connecting hoses and pumps to discharge fuel is hands-on work by a certificated driver.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Making minor repairs to large goods vehicles
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: minor repairs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8211/00
Source: “Make minor repairs to large goods vehicles.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Minor repairs mean tools and hands on the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Safeguarding the vehicle and oneself when not driving
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the vehicle, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 65 · 8211/00
Source: “Safeguard the vehicle and oneself when not driving.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Keeping yourself and the lorry safe when parked up is about being present and alert.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Hauling loaded debris and refuse away for disposal
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: loaded debris, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Haul loaded debris and refuse away for disposal.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Hauling debris away means driving the lorry and moving the waste.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing or removing special equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: special equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Install or remove special equipment, such as tyre chains, grader blades, plough blades, or sanders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting chains, blades or sanders is heavy hands-on work at the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Operating idle reduction systems to generate power and reduce lorry idling time
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: idle reduction systems, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8211/00
Source: “Operate idle reduction systems to generate power and reduce lorry idling time.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Operating the vehicle's idle-reduction system means being in the cab working the controls.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Removing manhole covers to unload materials into storage silos
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: manhole covers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 55 · 8211/00
Source: “Remove manhole covers to unload materials into storage silos.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting manhole covers to discharge into silos is heavy physical work on site.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Installing light bulbs for emergency roadside vehicle maintenance
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: light bulbs, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 50 · 8211/00
Source: “Install light bulbs for emergency roadside vehicle maintenance.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting a bulb at the roadside is a small job that still needs hands on the vehicle.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating lorries with snowploughs to maintain roads in winter
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lorries, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 50 · 8211/00
Source: “Operate lorries with snowploughs to maintain roads in winter.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Ploughing snow means a licensed driver working the lorry and the blade in bad conditions.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Washing lorries to keep them clean
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lorries, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 50 · 8211/00
Source: “Wash lorries to keep them clean.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Washing a lorry is physical cleaning work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £39,900a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 273,400in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: logs of vehicle service status following national in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes and maintaining logs of vehicle service status following national and federal regulations. What it cannot do is be answerable: the vehicle needs a named person the rules will accept, and software cannot be that person. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 18% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 5% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 76% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 55 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Interpreting maps to determine vehicle routes is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to logs of vehicle service status following national, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether the vehicle is in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no licence needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near arranging for delivery of freight or luggage. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to heavy and large goods vehicle drivers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was bus and coach drivers: only about 11% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 20/100 here, with only 18% of the task list in the top band, and “drive the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Bus and coach drivers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “check a vehicle's oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure they are in working order”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 11% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 11% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Air transport operatives
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “secure and protect the load using approved methods and equipment, minimizing the potential for slippage”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 10% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 10% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: £34,700 against your £39,905, 13.0% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 15,600 of those jobs against 273,400 of yours (ONS via Nomis), 6% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Road transport drivers n.e.c.
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “drive lorries to deliver food, medical supplies, or newspapers to specified destinations”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 8% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 8% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: £32,892 against your £39,905, 17.6% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 27,400 of those jobs against 273,400 of yours (ONS via Nomis), 10% as many seats.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 18% of its task weight, across 55 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like driving the vehicle safely and in accordance with the law arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

In US official statistics this job is counted as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded
Across the UK:
Driver CPC training (GOV.UK)
You owe these hours anyway. Spending the next block on the part of the job that's changing costs nothing extra.
Course fees vary; the hours are already a legal requirement
Across the UK:
Find training to become an HGV driver (GOV.UK)
Varies; some routes are funded

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for HGV driver, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

The working behind that

No transport or logistics Space; generalist rule blocks The AI Authority outright. This is 's fully worked state-(c) page.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 18% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for HGV driver. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for professional drivers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for professional drivers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for professional drivers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for professional drivers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 55 official task statements scored for Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers (United Kingdom, SOC 8211), 18% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 20 out of 100 (range 18–25, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Interpret maps to determine vehicle routes” (83/100, very high); “Maintain logs of vehicle service status following national and federal regulations” (81/100, very high); “Monitor the vehicle inspection schedule for servicing and MOT” (81/100, very high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” stay human?: About 76% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Wash lorries to keep them clean” (0/100, minimal); “Operate lorries with snowploughs to maintain roads in winter” (0/100, minimal); “Install light bulbs for emergency roadside vehicle maintenance” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 18% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 76% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 55 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
One task scored differently between repeat runs, so its range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
1 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.