Will AI replace Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 15 official task statements scored for Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (United States, SOC 29-1242), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 19 out of 100 (range 14–24, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Prepare case histories” (56/100, partial); “Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary” (48/100, partial); “Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment” (42/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” stay human?

About 80% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions” (0/100, minimal); “Follow established surgical techniques during the operation” (0/100, minimal); “Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 80% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 15 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric

preparing case histories, analyzing patient's medical history, medication allergies and conducting research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 80%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 19 out of 100 (14–24 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 15 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is preparing case histories: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Diagnose and perform surgery to treat and prevent rheumatic and other diseases in the musculoskeletal system. The job title says “orthopedic surgeons” or “except pediatric”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But orthopedic surgeons, except pediatric is not one task. It is 15 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 20%
staying human: 80%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
11 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

3 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Preparing case histories
The software now makes the first pass at case histories, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Prepare case histories.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Writing up a case history from the record is documentation AI drafts well for the doctor to check.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Referring patient to medical specialist or other practitioners
The software now makes the first pass at patient, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 48 out of 100 (41–55 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Referral criteria are well documented, so matching a patient to the right specialist is largely a decision support task.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Managing surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures or procurement of supplies and equipment
The software now makes the first pass at surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 42 out of 100 (35–49 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Scheduling, coordinating and ordering supplies is administrative work that software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

12 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Ordering and interpreting the results of laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging procedures
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for the results of laboratory tests, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Order and interpret the results of laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging procedures.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 38 out of 100 (31–45 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Reading tests and scans suits software well, though the ordering doctor stays legally responsible.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 4/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Prescribing preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for preoperative, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Prescribe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Standard pre and post-operative orders follow well-documented protocols, but only a licensed prescriber can issue them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Analyzing patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure
The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for patient's medical history, medication allergies, and that person cannot be a piece of software.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 23 out of 100 (16–30 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Records and scans can be summarized quickly, but deciding an operation is needed is a licensed surgeon’s judgment and responsibility.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Conducting research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases
This work happens in the physical world: research, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 22 out of 100 (15–29 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: AI helps design and analyze studies, but developing and testing surgical techniques happens in labs and operating rooms.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Diagnosing bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions
This work happens in the physical world: disorders, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Diagnose bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions, and provide treatments, such as medicines and surgeries, in clinics, hospital wards, or operating rooms.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Diagnosis can be supported by software, but treating patients and operating requires a licensed doctor physically present.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Diagnosing or treating disorders of the musculoskeletal system
This work happens in the physical world: disorders of the musculoskeletal system, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Diagnose or treat disorders of the musculoskeletal system.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Diagnosing and treating joint and muscle problems needs hands-on examination by a licensed doctor.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 4/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Providing consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons
This work happens in the physical world: consultation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–11 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Assisting another surgeon's operation means scrubbing in alongside them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 5 tasks

Directing and coordinating activities of nurses
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: activities of nurses, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 3 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Running a surgical team happens in the room, in real time, with people who know each other.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: instruments, equipment and operating room, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking instruments and the operating room for sterility is done by hand and eye in the room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Examining patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: patient, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: A physical examination requires the patient in front of you.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Following established surgical techniques during the operation
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: established surgical techniques during the operation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Operating is manual work carried out on a patient.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: patient's musculoskeletal system, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance not published
O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
Source: “Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Operating on a patient is physical work that only a licensed surgeon can do.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $358,550a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 14,100in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: case histories in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: preparing case histories. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where instruments, equipment and operating room get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 20% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 80% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 15 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Preparing case histories is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to case histories, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether instruments, equipment and operating room are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near preparing case histories. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here

You did not come here for a career change and I am not selling you one. But one road out of here is worth knowing about, so here it is with the bill attached.

Orthopedic Surgeons, Except PediatricPediatric Surgeons
a year or morematched on shared tasks
One of the tasks on your list is on theirs in the same words: “examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility”. Take both published task lists together and about 61% of the work in that job that the software is not taking is work you are doing today.
Half of what they do, you do already. The argument is about the other half, not about starting again.
The work the two jobs share
- You already do
  “Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.”
  They do
  “Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.”
- You already do
  “Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.”
  They do
  “Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.”
- You already do
  “Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.”
  They do
  “Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.”
What you would not already have: Nothing in your task list touches “consult with patient's other medical care specialists”, “examine fetuses, infants, children, and adolescents, and diagnose health issues to determine…” or “inform parents and guardians of child's health problems and surgical procedures through…”. That is the part you would be learning from scratch, and it is roughly the 39% of their durable work you do not already hold.
The honest bill
Pay: $559,030 against your $358,550 (OEWS May 2025 (both)).
- The licence gate: Default-closed. This release carries no licence-register snapshot, so I could not check whether that job is regulated, which means I have to assume it might be. Before you spend a penny, look it up on the US Labor Department’s licensed-occupations finder; the free routes below link straight to it. The route is banded a year or more because of that unknown, not in spite of it.
- The entry ticket: Typical entry-level education is published for only ten occupations in this release, and neither this job nor that one is among them. So I cannot tell you whether a qualification stands in the way. Treat that as an open question to settle before you commit, not as a green light.
- What the pay gap is telling you: $559,030 against your $358,550, 55.9% more (OEWS May 2025 (both)). A real difference, not a life-changing one. Take the move for the work, not the raise.
- What you live on meanwhile: Nobody is going to pay you to retrain. This is evenings and weekends alongside the job you already have, for a year or more, and if that is not possible right now then this route is not open right now, which is worth knowing before you start. The free American Job Center service listed below will talk training funding through with you before you pay anyone.
- How many seats there are: About 1,190 of those jobs against 14,100 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 8% as many seats. A real door, not a wide one.
- Is the target job itself holding up: Pediatric Surgeons scores 16/100 on this site’s own exposure measure (minimal), with 0% of its tasks in the top band. Employment projections are not published for this occupation in this release, so this is the exposure leg of the check only. It passed, which is the only reason it is here.
How long: A year or more, part-time, alongside the job you have. That band is set by the unchecked licence question and by the 39% of their work you would be learning, not by any one course.
See what AI is doing to pediatric surgeons

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Pediatricians, General
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff, and their equivalent is to direct and coordinate activities of nurses, students, assistants, specialists, therapists, and other medical…. Across both published task lists that is about 17% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 17% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: $210,040 against your $358,550, 41.4% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Obstetricians and Gynecologists
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff, and their equivalent is to direct and coordinate activities of nurses, students, assistants, specialists, therapists, and other medical…. Across both published task lists that is about 15% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 15% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on. It is a pay cut, in those words: $292,910 against your $358,550, 18.3% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Emergency Medicine Physicians
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 15% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 15% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 15 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like examining instruments, equipment and operating room to ensure sterility arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Specialist medical practitioners and consultants is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Specialist medical practitioners and consultants. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
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Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Nearby moves

The jobs above, as pages you can read the same way as this one. Your job shares its core work with these. That is what the match is, and it is all it is.

Pediatric Surgeons →Half of what they do, you do already. The argument is about the other half, not about starting again.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for orthopedic surgeons / except pediatric launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for orthopedic surgeons / except pediatric yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for orthopedic surgeons / except pediatric existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

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We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for orthopedic surgeons / except pediatric launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 15 official task statements scored for Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric (United States, SOC 29-1242), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 19 out of 100 (range 14–24, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Prepare case histories” (56/100, partial); “Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary” (48/100, partial); “Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment” (42/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” stay human?: About 80% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions” (0/100, minimal); “Follow established surgical techniques during the operation” (0/100, minimal); “Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 80% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 15 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

O*NET hasn't yet published importance ratings for this occupation's tasks, so the ordering here is ours, not theirs.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
11 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt-with-imputed)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

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Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.