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Commercial Pilots

checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, starting engines and checking baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI is already taking a real slice of the routine work here: considering airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne. That is a slice of tasks, not of you.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

That slice is not coming back; the core of the job, checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, stays yours. The tools change hands, the accountability doesn't.

Your week, as this page understands it

Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft on nonscheduled air carrier routes, or helicopters. Requires Commercial Pilot certificate. Includes charter pilots with similar certification, and air ambulance and air tour pilots. Excludes regional, national, and international airline pilots. The job title says “commercial pilots”. The real job is the part underneath: checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But commercial pilots is not one task. It is 24 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI
24%
changing shape
6%
staying human
71%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 23 out of 100 (20–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, across 24 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for commercial pilots is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

Shifting to AI

5 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

  • Considering airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne

    This is reading one thing and writing another: airport altitudes, outside temperatures in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Take-off speed is a defined calculation from published tables, already done by software with the pilot confirming it.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

  • Planning flights according to government and company regulations

    This is reading one thing and writing another: flights in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 62 out of 100 (58–66 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Flight planning uses published charts and rules, and planning software already does most of it before departure.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

  • Obtaining and reviewing data, load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes

    This is reading one thing and writing another: data, load weights, fuel supplies in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 62 out of 100 (58–66 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Pulling together weights, fuel, weather and schedules is data handling that dispatch systems largely automate.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

  • Writing specified information in flight records

    This is reading one thing and writing another: specified information in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 66 out of 100 (62–70 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.

    The rating behind it: Flight times, altitudes and fuel figures are structured records that electronic logs already fill in automatically.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

Changing shape

2 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

  • Requesting changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate

    The software now makes the first pass at changes, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 40 out of 100 (33–47 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Asking for a level or route change follows clear rules, but a licensed controller makes the request.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Planning and formulating flight activities and testing schedules and preparing flight evaluation reports

    The software now makes the first pass at flight activities, but someone has to be answerable for the result, and it cannot be the software. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.

    importance 4 · Supplemental
    Source: “Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Planning schedules and writing evaluation reports is desk work software drafts quickly.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

17 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

  • Checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines

    This work happens in the physical world: aircraft prior, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: The pre-flight check means physically walking round the aircraft and touching the controls and systems.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Monitoring engine operation, fuel consumption and functioning of aircraft systems during flights

    This work happens in the physical world: engine operation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Watching engines and fuel during a flight means being at the controls while the aircraft is airborne.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Ordering changes in fuel supplies

    The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for changes, and that person cannot be a piece of software.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 23 out of 100 (16–30 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Changing fuel, load or route is a safety decision the licensed captain must own.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Contacting control towers for takeoff clearances

    This work happens in the physical world: control towers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Radio calls to the tower are made by the crew flying the aircraft at that moment.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Show the other 14 tasks

  • Filing instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic

    shifting to AI

    This is reading one thing and writing another: instrument flight plans in, a record out. That is the shape today's tools are built for.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 75 out of 100 (71–79 allowing for uncertainty): high exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Filing a flight plan is a structured form built from data the planning system already holds.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 4/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.

  • Choosing routes, altitudes and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest and smoothest flights

    staying human

    The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for routes, altitudes and speeds, and that person cannot be a piece of software.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 35 out of 100 (28–42 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Route and altitude optimization is already computed by software, though the captain legally decides.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Teaching company regulations and procedures to other pilots

    staying human

    The rules require a named, qualified person to answer for company regulations, and that person cannot be a piece of software.

    importance 4 · Supplemental
    Source: “Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 27 out of 100 (20–34 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Company procedures are written down and easy to turn into training material, but classroom sessions are still delivered live.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Coordinating flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: flight activities, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (5–13 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Coordinating with ground crew and briefing the crew happens at the aircraft, around the departure itself.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Performing minor aircraft maintenance and repairing work

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: minor aircraft maintenance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (2–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Minor maintenance means hands and tools on the aircraft, and certified engineers sign the work off.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Instructing other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: other pilots, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Supplemental
    Source: “Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.

    The rating behind it: Flight instruction happens in the aircraft with the student at the controls, and needs a certified instructor.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Supervising other crew members

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: other crew members, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Supervise other crew members.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 4 out of 100 (0–8 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.

    The rating behind it: Supervising crew means being with them in the aircraft as the flight unfolds.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

  • Starting engines, operate controls and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail or freight according to flight plans, regulations and procedures

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: engines, operate controls and pilot airplanes, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Starting engines and flying the aircraft is direct physical operation of the machine.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

  • Using instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: instrumentation, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Flying on instruments in poor visibility is a person operating the aircraft in real time.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

  • Checking baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: baggage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.

    The rating behind it: Checking that cargo is loaded correctly means looking at and moving around the actual load.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

  • Conducting in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: in-flight tests, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Core
    Source: “Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–7 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence, and it moved between repeat runs, so the range is widened.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: In-flight testing means being aboard and flying the aircraft.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

  • Rescuing and evacuating injured persons

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: injured persons, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Supplemental
    Source: “Rescue and evacuate injured persons.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.

    The rating behind it: Rescuing and moving injured people is physical work at the scene.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

  • Flying with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: other pilots, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 4 · Supplemental
    Source: “Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it; the value is that a specific person does it.

    The rating behind it: Assessing a pilot's proficiency means flying alongside them and watching what they do.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

  • Copiloting aircraft or performing captain's duties

    staying human

    This work happens in the physical world: aircraft, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.

    importance 5 · Core
    Source: “Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.” (O*NET task statement)
    How this row was scored

    Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.

    Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.

    The rating behind it: Flying the aircraft, in either seat, is hands on the controls in the cockpit.

    The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay
$123,220a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this

Source: bls-oews

Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

Rounding: Shown as published.

People doing this job
47,630in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: airport altitudes, outside temperatures in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: considering airport altitudes, outside temperatures and planning flights according to government and company regulations. What it cannot do is be answerable: aircraft prior needs a named person the rules will accept, and software cannot be that person. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Your week is splitting in two, and which half fills it is the whole question. Considering airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne is going; checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines is not.

So, given all that: 24% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 6% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 71% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 24 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

The occupation is an average and you are not, so the first job below is finding out where your own week actually sits.

This week: one thing

Print the task ledger above and put your own hours next to each row. Roughly, in pen, in one sitting. Then look at which group your hours actually pile up in. Twenty minutes, this week.

What you end up holding
your own week, on one page, sorted into what is shifting and what is not
How long it takes
about twenty minutes

If printing it isn’t practical: Read the rows off this page and write the same list on the back of an envelope. Same twenty minutes, same page, and it works just as well said out loud to someone who knows the job. The point is your hours next to the rows, not the paper it is on.

Over the next 90 days

Volunteer toward the durable end, visibly. Over the next ninety days put your hand up for the work in the bottom group (checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines) and let people see you doing it. Not a new project: the same job, with your mix deliberately tilted. The point is that when the rota or the reorganisation comes, the version of you people picture is the one doing the part that stays.

Over the next 12 months

Claim a specialism at the durable end and let the other end go. Over a year, deliberately become the person who handles checking aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, and deliberately stop being the first choice for the rows in the top group. That trade costs something, because the exposed work is often the comfortable work. Decide it on purpose rather than by drift. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here

Now the roads out, with the honest bill on each one. One route survived the checks. The rest are below with the reason they did not.

  • Commercial PilotsAirline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers

    a year or morematched on shared tasks

    One of the tasks on your list is on theirs in the same words: “monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights”. Take both published task lists together and about 49% of the work in that job that the software is not taking is work you are doing today.

    About 49% of it you could do on Monday. The rest is the price of the ticket.

    The work the two jobs share

    • You already do

      “Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.”

      They do

      “Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.”

    • You already do

      “Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.”

      They do

      “Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.”

    • You already do

      “Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.”

      They do

      “Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.”

    What you would not already have: Nothing in your task list touches “inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists”, “monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and…” or “steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers”. That is the part you would be learning from scratch, and it is roughly the 51% of their durable work you do not already hold.

    The honest bill

    Pay: $232,140 against your $123,220 (OEWS May 2025 (both)).

    • The licence gate: Default-closed. This release carries no licence-register snapshot, so I could not check whether that job is regulated, which means I have to assume it might be. Before you spend a penny, look it up on the US Labor Department’s licensed-occupations finder; the free routes below link straight to it. The route is banded a year or more because of that unknown, not in spite of it.
    • The entry ticket: Typical entry-level education is published for only ten occupations in this release, and neither this job nor that one is among them. So I cannot tell you whether a qualification stands in the way. Treat that as an open question to settle before you commit, not as a green light.
    • What the pay gap is telling you: $232,140 against your $123,220, 88.4% more (OEWS May 2025 (both)). A real difference, not a life-changing one. Take the move for the work, not the raise.
    • What you live on meanwhile: Nobody is going to pay you to retrain. This is evenings and weekends alongside the job you already have, for a year or more, and if that is not possible right now then this route is not open right now, which is worth knowing before you start. The free American Job Center service listed below will talk training funding through with you before you pay anyone.
    • Is the target job itself holding up: Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers scores 13/100 on this site’s own exposure measure (minimal), with 0% of its tasks in the top band. Employment projections are not published for this occupation in this release, so this is the exposure leg of the check only. It passed, which is the only reason it is here.

    How long: A year or more, part-time, alongside the job you have. That band is set by the unchecked licence question and by the 51% of their work you would be learning, not by any one course.

    See what AI is doing to airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

  • Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors

    Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew…, and their equivalent is to accompany aircraft as a member of the flight crew to monitor and handle…. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.

    Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $58,170 against your $123,220, 52.8% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice. And it is a narrow door: about 9,760 of those jobs against 47,630 of yours (OEWS May 2025), 20% as many seats.

    Look at that job’s page anyway →

  • Air Traffic Controllers

    Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already file instrument flight plans with air traffic control, and their equivalent is to provide on-the-job training to new air traffic controllers. Across both published task lists that is about 5% of the durable work in that job.

    Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 5% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.

    Look at that job’s page anyway →

  • Avionics Technicians

    Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew…, and their equivalent is to set up and operate ground support and test equipment to perform functional flight…. Across both published task lists that is about 4% of the durable work in that job.

    Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 4% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: $82,280 against your $123,220, 33.2% less (OEWS May 2025 (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.

    Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

  • The headline number you read somewhere

    The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 24% of its task weight, across 24 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.

  • The whole-job doom story

    Nothing on this page says this job ends. It says the mix inside it moves. Half the rows above are unchanged or changing shape, and the plan is about which half your week sits in. That is a very different problem, and a solvable one.

  • Panic-buying a course

    Do the twenty-minute sorting exercise first. Most people who buy a course before they have done it buy the wrong one, and the free services listed below will tell you the same thing without charging for it.

  • The “obvious” next job everyone suggests

    I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Aircraft pilots and air traffic controllers is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Aircraft pilots and air traffic controllers. Pay and employment stay on this page’s own group; the task list and the scores do not cross over.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

No Space for this job, but one for what is happening to it

Nothing Collab365 runs is built for commercial pilots, and we are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

There is one that is not about a job title at all. The AI Authority is about being the person who directs these tools at work rather than the person they get compared to. That is worth saying here, because 24% of the work on this page is already inside what they can do.

Try The AI Authority free →

7 days free, no card needed. Explore up to 2 Spaces before you choose a plan: you pick a plan later, not now.

The AI Authority is a general community about working with AI, not a course for commercial pilots. You do not need it to act on anything here: the moves above cost nothing and stand on their own. The data on this page is the same either way.

Nearby moves

The jobs above, as pages you can read the same way as this one. Your job shares its core work with these. That is what the match is, and it is all it is.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for commercial pilots launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for commercial pilots yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for commercial pilots existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for commercial pilots launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Commercial Pilots?
Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 24 official task statements scored for Commercial Pilots (United States, SOC 53-2012), 24% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 23 out of 100 (range 20–28, band: low). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Commercial Pilots” can AI already do?
The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne” (75/100, high); “File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic” (75/100, high); “Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption” (66/100, high). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Commercial Pilots” stay human?
About 71% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required” (0/100, minimal); “Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency” (0/100, minimal); “Rescue and evacuate injured persons” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Commercial Pilots” do about AI?
Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 24% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 71% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Commercial Pilots calculated?
Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 24 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

  • One task scored differently between repeat runs, so its range on this page is wider. We would rather show the wobble than hide it.
  • The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
  • 7 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
  • Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.
Task statements
onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights
onet-db (im-rt)
Scores
Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment
bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a jobDownload this releaseLook up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published . Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.