Will AI replace Sailors and Marine Oilers?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 28 official task statements scored for Sailors and Marine Oilers (United States, SOC 53-5011), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 5 out of 100 (range 4–10, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Record data in ships' logs, such as weather conditions or distances traveled” (56/100, partial); “Maintain government-issued certifications, as required” (49/100, partial); “Read pressure and temperature gauges or displays and record data in engineering logs” (29/100, low). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” stay human?

About 93% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels” (0/100, minimal); “Clean and polish wood trim, brass, or other metal parts” (0/100, minimal); “Participate in shore patrols” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 93% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Sailors and Marine Oilers calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 28 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

US dataswitch to UK

Sailors and Marine Oilers

tying barges together into tow units for tugboats, lubricating machinery, equipment or engine parts and standing by wheels when ships are on automatic pilot. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: handling lines to moor vessels is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 7%
staying human: 93%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 5 out of 100 (4–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 28 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for sailors and marine oilers is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

What shifts is maintaining government-issued certifications: the overhead at the edges, not the middle you trained for.

Your week, as this page understands it

Stand watch to look for obstructions in path of vessel, measure water depth, turn wheel on bridge, or use emergency equipment as directed by captain, mate, or pilot. Break out, rig, overhaul, and store cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging, and running gear. Perform a variety of maintenance tasks to preserve the painted surface of the ship and to maintain line and ship equipment. Must hold government-issued certification and tankerman certification when working aboard liquid-carrying vessels. Includes able seamen and ordinary seamen. The job title says “sailors” or “marine oilers”: officially one job, two names. The real job is the part underneath: handling lines to moor vessels. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But sailors and marine oilers is not one task. It is 28 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is handling lines to moor vessels, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 7%
staying human: 93%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-05. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

3 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

2 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Maintaining government-issued certifications
The software now makes the first pass at government-issued certifications, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain government-issued certifications, as required.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Tracking renewal dates and filing certification paperwork is ordinary admin software manages well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Recording data in ships' logs
The software now makes the first pass at data, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Record data in ships' logs, such as weather conditions or distances traveled.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (52–60 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Writing weather and distance entries into the ship’s log is simple record-keeping software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

26 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Handling lines to moor vessels
This work happens in the physical world: lines, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to other vessels, or to rig towing lines.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Handling mooring lines is rope work done by hand on deck.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Sweeping mop and washing down decks to remove oil, dirt and debris, using brooms, mops, brushes and hoses
This work happens in the physical world: mop, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Sweep, mop, and wash down decks to remove oil, dirt, and debris, using brooms, mops, brushes, and hoses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Washing down decks is manual cleaning work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Examining machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows
This work happens in the physical world: machinery, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Examine machinery to verify specified pressures or lubricant flows.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (1–15 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Checking pressures and oil flows means being at the machinery with your eyes on it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Breaking out, rig and stow cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging or running gear
This work happens in the physical world: out, rig and stow cargo-handling gear, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Break out, rig, and stow cargo-handling gear, stationary rigging, or running gear.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Rigging and stowing cargo gear is heavy hands-on work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Reading pressure and temperature gauges or displays and recording data in engineering logs
This work happens in the physical world: pressure, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Read pressure and temperature gauges or displays and record data in engineering logs.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 29 out of 100 (22–36 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Logging pressures and temperatures is straightforward data work, though the gauges are read in the engine room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Splicing and repairing ropes, wire cables or cordage, using marlinespikes, wire cutters, twine and hand tools
This work happens in the physical world: ropes, wire cables or cordage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Splice and repair ropes, wire cables, or cordage, using marlinespikes, wire cutters, twine, and hand tools.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Splicing rope and wire is skilled hand work with the material itself.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Attaching hoses and operating pumps to transfer substances to and from liquid cargo tanks
This work happens in the physical world: hoses, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Attach hoses and operate pumps to transfer substances to and from liquid cargo tanks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Connecting hoses and running transfer pumps is physical work on deck.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Tying barges together into tow units for tugboats
This work happens in the physical world: barges together, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 5 · Core
Source: “Tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically during voyages and disconnecting them when destinations are reached.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Coupling and uncoupling barges is heavy rope and gear work on the water.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

Show the other 18 tasks

Giving directions to crew members engaged in cleaning wheelhouses or quarterdecks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: directions, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Give directions to crew members engaged in cleaning wheelhouses or quarterdecks.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 9 out of 100 (2–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Directing crew on cleaning duties happens face to face aboard the ship.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Lowering and manning lifeboats when emergencies occur
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lifeboats, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Lower and man lifeboats when emergencies occur.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Launching and crewing a lifeboat is physical emergency work aboard.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Standing by wheels when ships are on automatic pilot
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: wheels, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Stand by wheels when ships are on automatic pilot, and verify accuracy of courses, using magnetic compasses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Standing by the wheel and checking the compass means being on the bridge.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Steering ships under the direction of commanders or navigating officers or directing helmsmen
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ships under the direction of commanders, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Steer ships under the direction of commanders or navigating officers or direct helmsmen to steer, following designated courses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Steering the ship is physical control of the vessel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Standing watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: watch, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Stand watch in ships' bows or bridge wings to look for obstructions in a ship's path or to locate navigational aids, such as buoys or lighthouses.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Standing lookout is being physically posted on the vessel watching the water.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Standing gangway watches to prevent unauthorized persons from boarding ships while in port
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: gangway watches, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Stand gangway watches to prevent unauthorized persons from boarding ships while in port.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Standing a gangway watch is literally being posted at the ship’s entrance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Overhauling lifeboats or lifeboat gear and lower or raise lifeboats with winches or falls
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: lifeboats, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Overhaul lifeboats or lifeboat gear and lower or raise lifeboats with winches or falls.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Overhauling lifeboats and working the davits is heavy hands-on maintenance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Operating, maintaining or repairing ship equipment, such as winches, cranes, derricks or weapons system
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ship equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Operate, maintain, or repair ship equipment, such as winches, cranes, derricks, or weapons system.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Running and repairing winches and cranes is physical equipment work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Lubricating machinery, equipment or engine parts, such as gears, shafts or bearings
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: machinery, equipment or engine parts, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Lubricate machinery, equipment, or engine parts, such as gears, shafts, or bearings.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Greasing gears, shafts and bearings is hands-on maintenance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Providing engineers with assistance in repairing or adjusting machinery
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: engineers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Provide engineers with assistance in repairing or adjusting machinery.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Helping the engineers repair machinery means being there with tools.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Painting or varnishing decks, superstructures, lifeboats or sides of ships
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: decks, superstructures, lifeboats or sides of ships, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Core
Source: “Paint or varnish decks, superstructures, lifeboats, or sides of ships.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Painting and varnishing the ship is manual work with a brush.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Chipping and cleaning rust spots on decks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: rust spots, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Chip and clean rust spots on decks, superstructures, or sides of ships, using wire brushes and hand or air chipping machines.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Chipping and cleaning rust is manual surface work on the ship.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Measuring depth of water in shallow or unfamiliar waters
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: depth of water, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Measure depth of water in shallow or unfamiliar waters, using leadlines, and telephone or shout depth information to vessel bridges.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Swinging a lead line and calling the depth is physical work at the ship’s side.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Maintaining a ship's engines under the direction of the ship's engineering officers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: a ship's engines under the direction, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Maintain a ship's engines under the direction of the ship's engineering officers.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Maintaining ship engines is wrench-in-hand work in the engine room.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Relaying specified signals to other ships
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: specified signals, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Supplemental
Source: “Relay specified signals to other ships, using visual signaling devices, such as blinker lights or semaphores.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Working a signal lamp or semaphore means operating the device on the bridge.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Participating in shore patrols
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: shore patrols, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Participate in shore patrols.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Taking part in shore patrols means being present ashore.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Cleaning and polishing wood trim
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: wood trim, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 3 · Supplemental
Source: “Clean and polish wood trim, brass, or other metal parts.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Polishing trim and brass is manual cleaning work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 0/4.
Loading or unloading materials, vehicles or passengers from vessels
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: materials, vehicles or passengers, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 4 · Core
Source: “Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels.” (O*NET task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Loading and unloading a vessel is physical movement of goods and people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: $51,520a year, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.bls-oews, 2025 · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
How we know this
Source: bls-oews
Reference period: May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)
Rounding: Shown as published.
People doing this job: 31,670in the US, 2025.bls-oews · May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx)

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: government-issued certifications in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: maintaining government-issued certifications. What it cannot do is be there in the room, and that is still where lines get done. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: handling lines to moor vessels is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 7% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 93% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 28 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Maintaining government-issued certifications is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to government-issued certifications, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether lines are in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no license needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near maintaining government-issued certifications. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, use CareerOneStop - Find local training. It is free, it is the Labor Department's own service, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest US occupations to sailors and marine oilers (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was captains, mates, and pilots of water vessels: only about 7% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 5/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “handle lines to moor vessels to wharfs, to tie up vessels to…” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 830 US occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already tie barges together into tow units for tugboats to handle, inspecting barges periodically…, and their equivalent is to tow and maneuver barges or signal tugboats to tow barges to destinations. Across both published task lists that is about 7% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 7% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Industrial Machinery Mechanics
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already lubricate machinery, equipment, or engine parts, and their equivalent is to clean, lubricate, or adjust parts, equipment, or machinery. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Ship Engineers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already attach hoses and operate pumps to transfer substances to and from liquid cargo…, and their equivalent is to operate or maintain off-loading liquid pumps or valves. Across both published task lists that is about 4% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 4% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. The pay gap is the market pricing a barrier: $109,530 against your $51,520 is 2.13× (OEWS May 2025 (both)), and you would be crossing it holding about 4% of their durable work. A gap that size with an overlap that small is a wish, not a route.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 28 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like handling lines to moor vessels arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United States figures

The United Kingdom splits this work across more than one official group, of which Marine and waterways transport operatives is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United Kingdom page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

Non-commissioned officers and other ranks

In UK official statistics this job is counted as Marine and waterways transport operatives and Non-commissioned officers and other ranks. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Find local training
Search what's running near you, from the Labor Department's own database, before anyone sells you a course.
Free to search; individual programs vary, and some are funded
Anywhere in the US:
American Job Center locator
An American Job Center will sit down with you for free. Find yours by ZIP code.
Free
- CareerOneStop local help hub
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop - Licensed occupations finder
Check what your state actually requires before you pay for anything.
Free
Anywhere in the US:
CareerOneStop
Free

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for sailors / marine oilers launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for sailors / marine oilers yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for sailors / marine oilers existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for sailors / marine oilers launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Sailors and Marine Oilers?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 28 official task statements scored for Sailors and Marine Oilers (United States, SOC 53-5011), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 5 out of 100 (range 4–10, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Record data in ships' logs, such as weather conditions or distances traveled” (56/100, partial); “Maintain government-issued certifications, as required” (49/100, partial); “Read pressure and temperature gauges or displays and record data in engineering logs” (29/100, low). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” stay human?: About 93% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Load or unload materials, vehicles, or passengers from vessels” (0/100, minimal); “Clean and polish wood trim, brass, or other metal parts” (0/100, minimal); “Participate in shore patrols” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Sailors and Marine Oilers” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 93% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Sailors and Marine Oilers calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 28 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

Worth knowing about these figures

The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
3 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: onet-dbProcessing: catalogue-bridge → onet-im-rt-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: onet-db (im-rt)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))bls-oews (May 2025 estimates (national_M2025_dl.xlsx))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.