Will AI replace Air transport operatives?

Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 38 official task statements scored for Air transport operatives (United Kingdom, SOC 8233), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 11 out of 100 (range 8–16, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.

Which tasks in “Air transport operatives” can AI already do?

The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Complete luggage insurance forms” (56/100, partial); “Utilise aviation systems relevant to own role to achieve desired outcomes” (49/100, partial); “Arrange for delivery of freight or luggage” (46/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.

Which tasks in “Air transport operatives” stay human?

About 92% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Store cargo in warehouses” (0/100, minimal); “Effectively handle dangerous goods in emergency situations, ensuring the safety of all stakeholders” (0/100, minimal); “Secure and protect the load using approved methods and equipment, minimizing the potential for slippage” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.

What should someone working in “Air transport operatives” do about AI?

Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 92% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.

How is the AI exposure score for Air transport operatives calculated?

Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 38 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

UK dataswitch to US

Air transport operatives

refueling aircraft using hoses connected to fuel bowsers, challenging and reporting to supervisor / local security personnel any unauthorised persons around the aircraft and marshaling vehicles around the aircraft and on stand/airfield for safe aircraft arrival. If that's your week, this page is about your job.

The honest answer

AI changes the edges of this job, not the middle: safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques is work software can't reach.

Your move: what you can actually do about this ↓

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 92%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

Whole-job exposure score 11 out of 100 (8–16 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, across 38 scored tasks. The number is the support for the sentence above it, not a headline about anyone’s future.

How we know this

What is measured: Every published task statement for air transport operatives is rated on five dimensions: can a model produce the output, does the work need a body in a room, does it need a legally accountable person, does it depend on a person being trusted in the moment, and how much data exists. A published formula turns those five ratings into the score; the model never writes the number.

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

What shifts is arranging for delivery of freight or luggage: the paper around the work, not the work.

Your week, as this page understands it

Air transport operatives refuel, load and unload aircraft, direct the movement of aircraft at airports, and positions gangways or staircases to allow passengers to board and disembark aircraft. The job title says “air transport operatives”. The real job is the part underneath: safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques. That is the thing someone has to be right about.

The exposed part of this job is specific, and we won’t pretend it is coming back. But air transport operatives is not one task. It is 38 scored ones, and they are nowhere near equally exposed. The most durable of them, on this evidence, is safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques, and the ledger below shows exactly why.

Where the work sits, by task weight

shifting to AI: 0%
changing shape: 8%
staying human: 92%

These bars are tasks changing hands, not people being counted out. The ledger below shows which.

How we know this

How the bar is built: Each task’s share of the bar is its published importance weight, so a task you do all day counts for more than one you do twice a year.

Release: 2026-q4.1, scores computed 2026-08-04. Read the full method.

Your job, task by task

These are the official task statements for this occupation, in plain English, sorted by what the evidence says is happening to each one. The official wording sits under every line so you can check the rewrite against it.

5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Shifting to AI

0 tasks

Tasks today’s tools can already do most of. This is the part we will not soften: where these rows are the bulk of your week, the week changes.

Nothing in this job’s scored task list landed in this group. That is the measurement, not an editorial choice, and it is worth knowing either way.

Changing shape

3 tasks

Tasks where the machine takes the producing and a person keeps the checking, the deciding, or the answering-for-it. For most jobs this is the biggest group, and it is where "transformation, not termination" is literally visible.

Arranging for delivery of freight or luggage
The software now makes the first pass at delivery of freight, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 90 · 8233/02
Source: “Arrange for delivery of freight or luggage.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 46 out of 100 (42–50 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Arranging onward delivery of freight and bags is booking and tracking work that logistics software does well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Utilising aviation systems relevant to own role to achieve desired outcomes
The software now makes the first pass at this work, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 75 · 8233/02
Source: “Utilise aviation systems relevant to own role to achieve desired outcomes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 49 out of 100 (42–56 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Using the airline and airport systems for the role is screen work that software handles well.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Completing luggage insurance forms
The software now makes the first pass at luggage insurance forms, but the deciding part still needs a person. So the job becomes checking and deciding rather than producing.
importance 70 · 8233/02
Source: “Complete luggage insurance forms.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 56 out of 100 (49–63 allowing for uncertainty): partial exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: reading one thing and writing another; the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch.
The rating behind it: Insurance claim forms follow a fixed format and can largely be filled from booking and baggage data.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 0/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.

Staying human

35 tasks

Tasks that stay with a person, because they happen in the physical world, because the rules need someone accountable, or because the value is that a specific person does them.

Safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques
This work happens in the physical world: marshal, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/01, 8233/02
Source: “Safely marshal and control the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Marshalling an aircraft with hand signals is physical work standing in front of it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Refueling aircraft using hoses connected to fuel bowsers
This work happens in the physical world: aircraft, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 100 · 8233/01
Source: “Refuel aircraft using hoses connected to fuel bowsers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Refuelling an aircraft means connecting hoses on the stand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Checking for damage during transit from make-up to aircraft side and verifying accuracy and destination against the flight list
This work happens in the physical world: damage during transit, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 8233/02
Source: “Check for damage during transit from make-up to aircraft side and verify accuracy and destination against the flight list.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 29 out of 100 (22–36 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Matching bags against the flight list is easily automated by scanning, but spotting damage means looking at the bag.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Receiving and tagging luggage by completing and attaching claim tags
This work happens in the physical world: luggage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 8233/02
Source: “Receive and tag luggage by completing and attaching claim tags.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 16 out of 100 (9–23 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Tag details print automatically, but attaching the tag and taking the bag is done by hand at the desk.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring luggage is correctly loaded onto the designated aircraft
This work happens in the physical world: luggage is correctly, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 8233/02
Source: “Ensure luggage is correctly loaded onto the designated aircraft.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 8 out of 100 (4–12 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Making sure bags go on the right aircraft means being on the ramp checking what is loaded.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Loading luggage onto conveyors in the arrivals hall
This work happens in the physical world: luggage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 95 · 8233/02
Source: “Load luggage onto conveyors in the arrivals hall.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Lifting luggage onto conveyors is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Ensuring safe aircraft turnaround and departure as a Wingman or Banksman
This work happens in the physical world: safe aircraft turnaround, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8233/02
Source: “Ensure safe aircraft turnaround and departure as a Wingman or Banksman.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Guiding an aircraft on and off stand needs someone visible on the ground.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

Show the other 28 tasks

Providing weighing and billing services for shipments
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: services, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/02
Source: “Provide weighing and billing services for shipments.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 32 out of 100 (25–39 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Billing from a weight is simple calculation, though the shipment has to be physically put on the scales.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 3/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Effectivelying communicate through written, verbal and electronic means, selecting the most appropriate method for different circumstances
staying human
The value here is that a specific person handles communicate and stands behind it. That is earned, not computed.
importance 65 · 8233/02
Source: “Effectively communicate through written, verbal, and electronic means, selecting the most appropriate method for different circumstances.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 30 out of 100 (23–37 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Written messages are easy to draft, but choosing the right approach with colleagues relies on reading people.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 1/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting luggage that's damaged or suspicious
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: luggage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Report luggage that's damaged or suspicious.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 25 out of 100 (18–32 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Reporting a damaged or suspicious bag is a simple form, but noticing it means being on the ramp.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Ensuring compliance with health and safety regulations and legislation in an aviation environment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: compliance, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Ensure compliance with health and safety regulations and legislation in an aviation environment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 24 out of 100 (17–31 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Aviation safety rules are published and easy to reference, but compliance shows in how work is done airside.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 4/4.
Identifying and immediately reporting any incidents and defects with the aircraft
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: reporting any incidents, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/02
Source: “Identify and immediately report any incidents and defects with the aircraft, tooling or test equipment to the relevant authority.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 22 out of 100 (15–29 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: The report drafts easily, but spotting the defect means being at the aircraft or the equipment.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Reporting any security or mechanical issues to a supervisor
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: any security, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8233/02
Source: “Report any security or mechanical issues to a supervisor.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 21 out of 100 (14–28 allowing for uncertainty): low exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: mistakes that are cheap to catch; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Noticing the problem means being on the floor, though passing the message on is simple reporting.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Coordinating with teams in aircraft or airfield vicinity to maintain efficient and safe service
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: teams, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Coordinate with teams in aircraft or airfield vicinity to maintain efficient and safe service.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Coordinating with ramp and airfield teams happens live by radio while everyone is working around the aircraft.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Taking appropriate action in the event of incidents
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: appropriate action, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/02
Source: “Take appropriate action in the event of incidents, disruptions, or emergencies, documenting actions and outcomes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Writing up what happened drafts easily, but responding to a live incident means acting where it happens.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Contacting police directly in cases of urgent security issues
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: police, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8233/02
Source: “Contact police directly in cases of urgent security issues, using phones or two-way radios.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 18 out of 100 (11–25 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, medium confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Calling the police about an urgent security issue is a short live call made by whoever is on the spot.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 2/4 · needs a body in a room 2/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 2/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Contributing to the security of individuals and property in airside and landside areas
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the security of individuals, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8233/02
Source: “Contribute to the security of individuals and property in airside and landside areas.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (2–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Keeping people and property secure airside means being present and watching what is happening.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Supervising the loading and unloading of aircraft using specialist equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the loading and unloading of aircraft, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8233/02
Source: “Supervise the loading and unloading of aircraft using specialist equipment.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (2–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Overseeing loading on stand means being at the aircraft watching equipment and people work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Following appropriate safety procedures for transporting hazardous goods
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: appropriate safety procedures, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8233/02
Source: “Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting hazardous goods.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 6 out of 100 (2–10 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Moving dangerous goods safely is physical handling that only staff holding current dangerous-goods certification may carry out.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 1/4 · needs a body in a room 3/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Directing ground traffic, including taxiing aircraft, maintenance or luggage vehicles or airport workers
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ground traffic, including taxiing aircraft, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/01
Source: “Direct ground traffic, including taxiing aircraft, maintenance or luggage vehicles, or airport workers.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Directing taxiing aircraft and airside vehicles means being out on the apron controlling movement in person.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Changing oil in line service aircraft
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: oil, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8233/01
Source: “Change oil in line service aircraft.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Changing oil on an aircraft is hands-on work, and the maintenance must be released by a licensed engineer.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 3/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Refilling aircraft potable water tanks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: aircraft potable water tanks, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8233/01
Source: “Refill aircraft potable water tanks.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Connecting hoses and refilling water tanks is physical work carried out at the aircraft.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Applying de-icing fluid to aircraft from baskets lifted by lorry-mounted cranes
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: fluid, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 50 · 8233/01
Source: “Apply de-icing fluid to aircraft from baskets lifted by lorry-mounted cranes.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Spraying de-icing fluid from a raised basket is physical work out in the weather.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Safing use of aircraft handling equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: use of aircraft handling equipment, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8233/02
Source: “Safe use of aircraft handling equipment (drivable or towable steps, luggage tractors, ULD dollies and baggage trolley) to ensure the safe arrival, turnaround and departure of aircraft.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Driving and operating steps, tractors and dollies is physical work airside.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Using load instruction reports to load or unload cargo onto the aircraft
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: load instruction reports, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 90 · 8233/02
Source: “Use load instruction reports to load or unload cargo onto the aircraft.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Loading to a load instruction report still means lifting and securing cargo in the hold.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Challenging and reporting to supervisor / local security personnel any unauthorised persons around the aircraft
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: supervisor / local security personnel any unauthorised persons, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Challenge and report to supervisor / local security personnel any unauthorised persons around the aircraft.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Challenging someone near an aircraft requires a person there to do it.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 1/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Marshaling vehicles around the aircraft and on stand/airfield for safe aircraft arrival
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: vehicles around the aircraft, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Marshal vehicles around the aircraft and on stand/airfield for safe aircraft arrival.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Marshalling vehicles on stand needs someone standing there directing them.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating ULD stops and locks
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: ULD stops, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Operate ULD stops and locks, lashing and netting safely, ensuring aircraft's safe arrival, turnaround, and departure.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Fitting locks, lashings and nets is hands-on work inside the hold.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Transporting luggage between assigned rooms
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: luggage, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 85 · 8233/02
Source: “Transport luggage between assigned rooms, terminals, or platforms.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Carrying luggage from one place to another is physical work.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 1/4.
Enabling safe and efficient embarkation and disembarkation for passengers with reduced mobility
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: safe, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8233/02
Source: “Enable safe and efficient embarkation and disembarkation for passengers with reduced mobility.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world; the value is that a specific person does it.
The rating behind it: Helping a passenger with reduced mobility on and off an aircraft is physical, personal assistance.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 3/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Operating chocks, power units and cones to ensure aircraft is safely held in position
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: chocks, power units and cones, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 80 · 8233/02
Source: “Operate chocks, power units and cones to ensure aircraft is safely held in position.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Placing chocks and cones and connecting power units is physical work on the stand.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Driving vehicles to transport items or people between designated locations
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: vehicles, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8233/02
Source: “Drive vehicles to transport items or people between designated locations.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world; someone qualified has to answer for it.
The rating behind it: Driving vehicles around the airfield is physical work at the wheel.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 2/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Securing and protecting the load using approved methods and equipment
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: the load, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 75 · 8233/02
Source: “Secure and protect the load using approved methods and equipment, minimizing the potential for slippage.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: the same decision, made over and over; work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Securing a load against slippage is hands-on work with straps and nets.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 1/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 3/4.
Effectivelying handle dangerous goods in emergency situations
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: handle dangerous goods, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 70 · 8233/02
Source: “Effectively handle dangerous goods in emergency situations, ensuring the safety of all stakeholders.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Dealing with dangerous goods in an emergency is hands-on work in protective equipment.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.
Storing cargo in warehouses
staying human
This work happens in the physical world: cargo, in a real place. Software cannot follow it there.
importance 60 · 8233/02
Source: “Store cargo in warehouses.” (UK task statement)
How this row was scored
Exposure score: 0 out of 100 (0–4 allowing for uncertainty): minimal exposure, high confidence.
Why it sits in this group: work that happens in the physical world.
The rating behind it: Putting cargo away in a warehouse is physical handling.
The five ratings: output a model can produce 0/4 · needs a body in a room 4/4 · needs an accountable person 0/4 · needs to be trusted in the moment 0/4 · how much data exists 2/4.

What this job pays, and how many people do it

Median pay: £34,700a year, before tax, the middle of the range, so half earn more and half earn less.ashe-t14, 2025 · ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
How we know this
Source: ashe-t14
Reference period: ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025)
Rounding: Shown to the nearest £100. The exact published figure is in the downloadable dataset. We do not render pounds the survey cannot support.
People doing this job: 15,600in the UK, 2026.nomis-aps · Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period)This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.

What is deliberately not here: a forecast of how many of these jobs exist in ten years. Where an official projection exists for a market we publish it with its vintage; where it does not, we leave the space empty rather than borrow the other country’s number.

Why this is shifting

The reason is boringly specific. Most of what is shifting here is reading one thing and writing another: delivery of freight in, a record out. The rows above are exactly that shape: arranging for delivery of freight or luggage. What it cannot do is be answerable: marshal needs a named person the rules will accept, and software cannot be that person. Which is why this page talks about your tasks changing, not your job ending.

Your move

Over a pint: what I’d tell you if you were my friend

Start with what does not change: safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques is the middle of this job, and the evidence on this page says it stays with a person.

So, given all that: 0% of this job's task weight sits in rows the software is already learning, 8% in rows that change shape rather than disappear, and 92% in rows it is nowhere near. That is the position, measured across 38 scored tasks. It is not a forecast about you.

So the thing worth your attention is not the job going away. It is the layer around it. Arranging for delivery of freight or luggage is the part turning into software, and being the person who understands that layer is worth money.

This week: one thing

Ask the one question. Find whoever is bringing new software into your workplace (the manager, the office, whoever runs the system) and ask them what it is meant to do to delivery of freight, and what it is not meant to touch. Ten minutes, this week, before anyone decides it for you.

What you end up holding: a straight answer about what is actually being rolled out, and when
How long it takes: ten minutes

If there’s nobody obvious to ask, or you’d rather not ask your manager: Put the same question to your union rep, your shift lead or the person who has been there longest, in person, over a break. Same ten minutes, same answer, and you will usually get a straighter one. Write down what they say. The note is the artifact, and it tells you whether marshal is in scope or not. Nothing to log into, no licence needed.

Over the next 90 days

Get inside the tool rollout rather than waiting for it. Over the next ninety days, ask to be in the group that tests, checks or signs off whatever new system arrives near arranging for delivery of freight or luggage. It is usually an unglamorous seat that nobody fights for, and it is the one that decides how the software is used on your job rather than to it.

Over the next 12 months

On this evidence I would not retrain out of this job, and I will say that plainly rather than hedge it. The task list here is dominated by work that stays with a person. What I would do with a year is get formally recognised for the layer around it (the systems, the compliance, the planning), so you are the one who understands the software instead of the one it is done to. Before you pay for anything, spend an hour with National Careers Service. It is free and government-funded, and it is listed below with the rest of the free routes.

The roads out of here, and why I am not sending you down them

I looked at the obvious moves out of this job, and here is what I found.

I checked the 12 nearest UK occupations to air transport operatives (nearest by the work that AI is not taking, not by job title), and none of them survived. The closest was heavy and large goods vehicle drivers: only about 13% of its durable work is work you already do. And on the numbers you do not need one. This job scores 11/100 here, with only 0% of the task list in the top band, and “refuel aircraft using hoses connected to fuel bowsers” is not work that hands over cleanly. None of them beats deepening what you already have.

How that was checked: this job was compared against all 412 UK occupations in this release on their official task statements, and the 12 nearest were examined one by one. A move that turns on an industry, an employer or a qualification rather than on the work itself will not show up in a check like that. And this release carries no licence register, so anything you are weighing needs that looked up separately.

3 moves I checked and rejected

These are the obvious-looking jumps. They are here with their reasons rather than quietly dropped, because the ones that fail are worth knowing about. It is one less thing to turn over at night.

Heavy and large goods vehicle drivers
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting hazardous goods”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 13% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 13% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Communication operators
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour because one of your tasks is on their list in the same words: “safely marshal and control the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques”. Across the whole of both lists that adds up to about 12% of the work in that job the software is not taking.
Why I am not recommending it: You would be starting most of it from nothing: about 12% of the durable work in that job is work you do today, and the rest you would be learning while the bills carried on.
Look at that job’s page anyway →
Delivery operatives
Why it looked obvious: It came up as a near neighbour on the work AI is not taking: you already drive vehicles to transport items or people between designated locations, and their equivalent is to drive to designated delivery locations. Across both published task lists that is about 6% of the durable work in that job.
Why I am not recommending it: Almost none of it is work you already do: about 6% of the durable side of that job. That is a different job, not a next step. It is a pay cut, in those words: £28,749 against your £34,700, 17.1% less (ASHE Table 14.7a, 2025 provisional (both)). Retraining to earn less is a decision, not advice.
Look at that job’s page anyway →

What I’d stop worrying about

A friend tells you what not to spend fear on. This is that list.

The headline number you read somewhere
The big “X% of jobs” figures are about the whole economy, not about you. The number that describes your job is on this page: 0% of its task weight, across 38 scored tasks. Every row behind it is printed above with the source. Check ours; ignore theirs.
The headlines about your trade disappearing
They are usually about the technology, not the timetable. Changes to work like safelying marshal and controlling the movement of aircraft and vehicles using appropriate hand signals and techniques arrive through rules, insurance and money, slowly and visibly. This page tracks the task evidence and will move when it moves.
Retraining out of a job that is holding up
On this evidence I would not spend money leaving. Spend it on the layer around the job instead: the tools, the paperwork, the planning. That is where the change actually is.
The “obvious” next job everyone suggests
I checked the obvious moves and most of them did not survive. The reasons are printed with the routes above, including the pay and the gate. A move that fails on the numbers is worth knowing about so you can stop turning it over at night.

You are reading the United Kingdom figures

The United States splits this work across more than one official group, of which Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors is the closest. The pay and employment figures are not directly comparable, and we do not average them together.

Switch to the United States page →partial match

The other groups this work is counted across:

In US official statistics this job is counted as Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand and Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders. Pay is shown separately for each of those groups (medians cannot be averaged together), while the task list and the scores on this page are for this group only.

Your route through this

Where to go next, and what it costs

Free, and complete

The moves above cost nothing. These are the real services that go with them: public, government-funded, and free at the point of use. Nothing on this page is behind an email address or a payment.

In England:
National Careers Service
A free hour with a government-funded careers adviser is worth more than another evening of reading. In England that's the National Careers Service.
Free, government-funded
- Discover your skills and careers (the skills assessment)
In England:
National Careers Service - Find a course
Search what's actually running near you before you spend anything.
Free to search; individual courses vary
In England:
Free courses for jobs (Level 3 qualifications)
A free Level 3 qualification you already qualify for beats a paid course you don't need.
Free for eligible adults
In England:
Skills Bootcamps
Free, up to 16 weeks, and you get a job interview at the end. In England these are Skills Bootcamps - search what's running near you.
Free for eligible adults in England
- Skills Bootcamps - what they are and who can do them (DfE, Skills for Careers)
- Skills Bootcamps - JobHelp (DWP)
In Scotland:
My World of Work (Skills Development Scotland)
In Scotland it's My World of Work, from Skills Development Scotland.
Free, publicly funded
- Skills Development Scotland
In Wales:
Careers Wales
In Wales it's Careers Wales.
Free, Welsh Government-funded
In Northern Ireland:
Careers Service Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland it's the Careers Service on nidirect.
Free, Department for the Economy-funded

Why there is no community here

Collab365, who build this site, run paid Spaces for a small number of subjects, and none of them is built for this job. We are not going to point you at the nearest one and call it a fit.

So the free services listed on this page are the whole answer, and it is the same answer we would give a friend.

Noted, and thank you. We’ll email you if a Space for air transport operatives launches. Nothing else.

That did not look like an email address, so nothing was saved. Have another go below.

We could not save that. The fault is ours, not yours, and your address was not stored. Please try again later.

No Space for air transport operatives yet. Should there be one?

Collab365 Spaces is built by the same people as this site. We find the problems that AI and automation are creating inside one kind of work, then solve them as short courses, briefings and Blueprints. Each Space is the community too, so the research and the people doing your job are in the same place.

What a Space actually is, in full

Collab365 launches new communities where the need is real. If one for air transport operatives existed, with researched problems, courses and people in the same boat, would you want in?

Your email

We use your email address for one thing: to tell you if a Space for air transport operatives launches. We never sell it, never use it for unrelated marketing, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe. Our privacy policy has the full version.

This unlocks nothing. Every figure, every row and every step on this page is already yours, whether you fill this in or not.

No deadline on any of this. The page will still be here, and the data is refreshed on a published schedule rather than when someone wants a headline.

Questions people ask about this job

Will AI replace Air transport operatives?: Not as a job, but it is already doing parts of the work. Across the 38 official task statements scored for Air transport operatives (United Kingdom, SOC 8233), 0% of the importance-weighted core work is made of tasks today's AI could already do most of. The overall exposure score is 11 out of 100 (range 8–16, band: minimal). That is a statement about tasks, not about headcount: this measures what AI could do, not whether any employer adopts it, whether the law allows it, or whether doing the routine parts faster creates more demand for the human parts. Figures are from release 2026-q4.1.
Which tasks in “Air transport operatives” can AI already do?: The highest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Complete luggage insurance forms” (56/100, partial); “Utilise aviation systems relevant to own role to achieve desired outcomes” (49/100, partial); “Arrange for delivery of freight or luggage” (46/100, partial). Each score comes from five published 0–4 ratings turned into a number by a published formula, and each carries the model's one-sentence reason on the page.
Which tasks in “Air transport operatives” stay human?: About 92% of this job's task weight sits in work that scores low for AI exposure. The lowest-scoring tasks in release 2026-q4.1 are: “Store cargo in warehouses” (0/100, minimal); “Effectively handle dangerous goods in emergency situations, ensuring the safety of all stakeholders” (0/100, minimal); “Secure and protect the load using approved methods and equipment, minimizing the potential for slippage” (0/100, minimal). Low scores usually mean the task needs a body in a room, a legally accountable human, or trust built in real time. Those are the three things the scoring rubric treats as gates rather than obstacles.
What should someone working in “Air transport operatives” do about AI?: Start from the ledger rather than the headline: 0% of this job's weighted core work is exposed, and roughly 92% is not. The practical move is to spend more of your week on the tasks that score low, the ones above, and to get fluent at directing AI through the tasks that score high, because those are the parts that change whether or not you are ready for them. This page does not predict your job, and nothing here is career advice tailored to you: the score describes the occupation, not the person.
How is the AI exposure score for Air transport operatives calculated?: Each official task statement for the occupation is rated on five published 0–4 dimensions (output replicability, physical embodiment, licensed accountability, real-time human trust, and data availability) by claude-opus-5 using scoring prompt task_scoring_v1.0. The model never writes the score; a published formula turns the five ratings into a 0–100 number, so every score can be recomputed by hand. The occupation figure is the importance-weighted mean across 38 scored tasks. The prompt, the rubric, the formula and the full dataset are published at https://futureproof.collab365.com/method and https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1 under CC BY 4.0.

Where these numbers come from

About the data on this page

Provisional, because the ONS revises this figure in the autumn.
This headcount comes from a survey, not a census, so treat it as a good estimate rather than an exact count.
The match between this job and its counterpart in the other country is partial, so the two pages count slightly different groups of people.
5 of this occupation's scored task statements carry a score that was measured under a different occupation's context, because the statement is shared between jobs and has only been scored once so far. Each one names the occupation it was measured under in the free routes below; none is presented as a measurement for this job.
Task clusters are not derived in this release, so the task-cluster field is empty and no Collab365 Space routing is attached to this occupation yet.

Task statements: gaisi-indexProcessing: catalogue-bridge → ssc-relatedness-weighting → task-scoring → score-aggregation
Task weights: gaisi-index (relatedness)
Scores: Rubric task_scoring_v1.0, model claude-opus-5, computed 2026-08-05.
Pay and employment: ashe-t14 (ASHE 2025 provisional (reference April 2025))nomis-aps (Apr 2025-Mar 2026 (latest APS 12-month period))

Figures on this page come from release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Every release keeps its own permanent address, so a figure you cite in March is still there, unchanged, in November.

The plain-English wording on this page is assembled directly from the task statements and the published ratings, not written by hand for this occupation. That is why it is specific, and it is also why we say so.

The routes and free resources further up are today’s, not the release’s (last reviewed 2026-08-05). A route is an offer, not a historical fact, so it moves on its own clock.

How we score a job Download this release Look up another job

Using these figures?

Cite this

Everything on this site is published under CC BY 4.0. Quote it, chart it, sell something built on it. Just say where it came from, and cite the dated release rather than the site, so the figure you quote stays checkable.

Plain text

Collab365 (2026). Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1 (methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0). https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Built with O*NET data (USDOL/ETA, CC BY 4.0); ONS data (Open Government Licence v3.0); GAISI task framework (arXiv:2507.22748, MIT); BLS data (public domain).

BibTeX

@misc{collab365futureproof2026q41,
  title        = {Collab365 Futureproof: task-level AI exposure for US and UK occupations, release 2026-q4.1},
  author       = {{Collab365}},
  year         = {2026},
  url          = {https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1},
  note         = {Release 2026-q4.1, methodVersion 2.0.0, promptVersion task_scoring_v1.0, CC BY 4.0}
}

Permalink

https://futureproof.collab365.com/data/2026-q4.1

Data as of release 2026-q4.1, published 2026-08-05. Releases never change after publication; when the figures move, a new dated release is published beside this one and this one stays exactly where it is.